# NRL Round 9 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 9 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 9 at a glance
- 8 matches · 13W–19L on 32 settled picks (41% strike rate) · best value +3.8% edge

## Round 9 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs v Cowboys | Bulldogs @ $1.74 | Bulldogs 58% | LOST |
| Dolphins v Storm | Dolphins @ $1.62 | Dolphins 63% | WON |
| Titans v Raiders | Titans @ $1.90 | Titans 54% | LOST |
| Eels v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.44 | Warriors 54% | WON |
| Roosters v Broncos | Roosters @ $1.56 | Roosters 61% | WON |
| Knights v Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs @ $1.73 | Rabbitohs 55% | LOST |
| Sharks v Wests Tigers | Sharks @ $1.52 | Sharks 57% | WON |
| Panthers v Sea Eagles | Panthers @ $1.25 | Panthers 67% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Bulldogs v Cowboys
Fri, 01 May, 06:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 57.5% / Cowboys 42.5%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.74 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 57.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-bulldogs-v-cowboys

### Dolphins v Storm
Fri, 01 May, 08:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 62.6% / Storm 37.4%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.62 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-dolphins-v-storm

### Titans v Raiders
Sat, 02 May, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 54.0% / Raiders 46.0%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.90 (edge +3.6%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Titans 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-titans-v-raiders

### Eels v Warriors
Sat, 02 May, 05:30 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 45.8% / Warriors 54.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.44 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 54.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-eels-v-warriors

### Roosters v Broncos
Sat, 02 May, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 61.0% / Broncos 39.0%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.56 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-roosters-v-broncos

### Knights v Rabbitohs
Sun, 03 May, 02:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 45.3% / Rabbitohs 54.7%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.73 (edge -20.0%) — model probability 54.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 2 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-knights-v-rabbitohs

### Sharks v Wests Tigers
Sun, 03 May, 04:05 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 57.3% / Wests Tigers 42.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.52 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 57.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-sharks-v-wests-tigers

### Panthers v Sea Eagles
Sun, 03 May, 06:15 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 67.3% / Sea Eagles 32.7%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.25 (edge -8.5%) — model probability 67.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r9-panthers-v-sea-eagles

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.1% | 112/167 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.1% | 87/167 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 22.6% | 37/164 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.9% | 95/167 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 390/1073 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.6% | 38/675 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/8 (markdown: /nrl/round/8.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/10 (markdown: /nrl/round/10.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-03 10:02 UTC (latest tip update)