# NRL Round 4 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 4 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 4 at a glance
- 8 matches · 13W–19L on 32 settled picks (41% strike rate) · best value +2.5% edge

## Round 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles v Roosters | Roosters @ $1.47 | Roosters 56% | WON |
| Warriors v Wests Tigers | Warriors @ $1.22 | Warriors 62% | LOST |
| Broncos v Dolphins | Broncos @ $1.64 | Broncos 56% | WON |
| Bulldogs v Knights | Bulldogs @ $1.24 | Bulldogs 62% | LOST |
| Panthers v Eels | Panthers @ $1.20 | Panthers 65% | WON |
| Cowboys v Storm | Storm @ $1.19 | Storm 68% | LOST |
| Raiders v Sharks | Raiders @ $1.80 | Raiders 56% | LOST |
| Titans v Dragons | Titans @ $1.87 | Titans 51% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sea Eagles v Roosters
Thu, 26 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 43.8% / Roosters 56.2%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.47 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 56.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-sea-eagles-v-roosters

### Warriors v Wests Tigers
Fri, 27 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 61.9% / Wests Tigers 38.1%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.22 (edge -16.0%) — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-warriors-v-wests-tigers

### Broncos v Dolphins
Fri, 27 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 56.1% / Dolphins 43.9%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.64 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 56.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 3 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-broncos-v-dolphins

### Bulldogs v Knights
Sat, 28 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 62.5% / Knights 37.5%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge -14.3%) — model probability 62.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-bulldogs-v-knights

### Panthers v Eels
Sat, 28 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 65.5% / Eels 34.5%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.20 (edge -13.8%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 6 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-panthers-v-eels

### Cowboys v Storm
Sat, 28 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT · Qld Country Bank Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 31.7% / Storm 68.3%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.19 (edge -11.7%) — model probability 68.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 10 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-cowboys-v-storm

### Raiders v Sharks
Sun, 29 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 55.7% / Sharks 44.3%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.80 (edge +2.5%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-raiders-v-sharks

### Titans v Dragons
Sun, 29 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 4
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 50.7% / Dragons 49.3%
- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.87 (edge -60.0%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dragons Draw @ $8.00 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-titans-v-dragons

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.9% | 89/131 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 49.6% | 65/131 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 20.9% | 27/129 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.5% | 74/131 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/3 (markdown: /nrl/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/5 (markdown: /nrl/round/5.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/4
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC