# NRL Round 3 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 3 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 3 at a glance
- 8 matches · 19W–13L on 32 settled picks (59% strike rate) · best value +4.4% edge

## Round 3 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $2.00 | Bulldogs 52% | WON |
| Roosters v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.58 | Roosters 50% | WON |
| Storm v Broncos | Storm @ $1.39 | Storm 62% | LOST |
| Knights v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.59 | Warriors 58% | WON |
| Sharks v Dolphins | Sharks @ $1.43 | Sharks 66% | LOST |
| Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers | Rabbitohs @ $1.57 | Rabbitohs 55% | WON |
| Eels v Dragons | Eels @ $1.45 | Eels 61% | WON |
| Cowboys v Titans | Cowboys @ $1.60 | Cowboys 60% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Raiders v Bulldogs
Thu, 19 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · GIO Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 47.7% / Bulldogs 52.3%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $2.00 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 52.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 1 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-raiders-v-bulldogs

### Roosters v Panthers
Fri, 20 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT · Allianz Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 49.8% / Panthers 50.2%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.58 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 50.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-roosters-v-panthers

### Storm v Broncos
Fri, 20 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 62.0% / Broncos 38.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.39 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 10 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-storm-v-broncos

### Knights v Warriors
Sat, 21 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 42.0% / Warriors 58.0%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.59 (edge -1.9%) — model probability 58.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-knights-v-warriors

### Sharks v Dolphins
Sat, 21 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 65.6% / Dolphins 34.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.43 (edge -100.0%) — model probability 65.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 6 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-sharks-v-dolphins

### Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers
Sat, 21 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT · Polytec Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 55.0% / Wests Tigers 45.0%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.57 (edge -5.5%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 6 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-rabbitohs-v-wests-tigers

### Eels v Dragons
Sun, 22 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT · CommBank Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 60.8% / Dragons 39.2%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.45 (edge -4.7%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-eels-v-dragons

### Cowboys v Titans
Sun, 22 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 3
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 60.2% / Titans 39.8%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.60 (edge +80.0%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-cowboys-v-titans

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.9% | 89/131 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 49.6% | 65/131 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 20.9% | 27/129 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.5% | 74/131 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/2 (markdown: /nrl/round/2.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/4 (markdown: /nrl/round/4.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/3
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-04 07:33 UTC