# NRL Semi Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Semi Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Semi Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 8 picks pending

## Semi Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters v Sharks | Roosters @ $1.44 | Roosters 63% | — |
| Warriors v Knights | Warriors @ $1.52 | Warriors 55% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Roosters v Sharks
Sat, 19 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 62.9% / Sharks 37.1%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.44 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 62.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 40
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $2.90 — model probability 61.3% (edge +26.8%)
- Daniel Tupou @ $1.94 — model probability 64.7% (edge +13.2%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.40 — model probability 53.9% (edge +12.3%)
- William Kennedy @ $3.40 — model probability 38.3% (edge +8.9%)
- James Tedesco @ $2.50 — model probability 48.7% (edge +8.7%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $2.35 — model probability 48.6% (edge +6.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $13.00 — model probability 7.9% (edge +0.2%)
- William Kennedy @ $14.00 — model probability 4.6% (edge -2.5%)
- Robert Toia @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Riley Jones @ $20.00 — model probability 1.8% (edge -3.2%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-roosters-v-sharks

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 20 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Eden Park · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 55.0% / Knights 45.0%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 55.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 42
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $3.25 — model probability 64.3% (edge +33.6%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.25 — model probability 66.8% (edge +22.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $2.15 — model probability 63.4% (edge +16.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $2.00 — model probability 64.0% (edge +14.0%)
- Taine Tuaupiki @ $2.45 — model probability 50.9% (edge +10.1%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.10 — model probability 40.0% (edge +7.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Greg Marzhew @ $10.00 — model probability 9.6% (edge -0.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $9.50 — model probability 8.8% (edge -1.8%)
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $14.00 — model probability 4.8% (edge -2.3%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 4.5% (edge -3.2%)
- Bradman Best @ $15.00 — model probability 2.4% (edge -4.3%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-sf-warriors-v-knights

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.9% | 137/211 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.7% | 107/211 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.6% | 49/208 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.9% | 118/211 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 527/1422 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.4% | 48/896 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/28 (markdown: /nrl/round/28.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-15 10:59 UTC (latest tip update)