# NRL Finals Week 1 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Finals Week 1 of the 2026 season — 4 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Finals Week 1 at a glance
- 4 matches

## Finals Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs v Knights | — | Rabbitohs 50% | — |
| Warriors v Dolphins | — | Warriors 50% | — |
| Sharks v Cowboys | — | Sharks 50% | — |
| Panthers v Roosters | — | Panthers 50% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Rabbitohs v Knights
Fri, 11 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 50.0% / Knights 50.0%

### Warriors v Dolphins
Sat, 12 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 50.0% / Dolphins 50.0%

### Sharks v Cowboys
Sat, 12 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 50.0% / Cowboys 50.0%

### Panthers v Roosters
Sun, 13 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Finals Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 50.0% / Roosters 50.0%

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 65.2% | 135/207 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 51.2% | 106/207 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23% | 47/204 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.1% | 114/207 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 515/1390 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 48/876 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/27 (markdown: /nrl/round/27.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/28
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-07 07:55 UTC