# NRL Round 26 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 26 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 26 at a glance
- 8 matches · 32 picks pending · best value +7.1% edge

## Round 26 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos v Storm | Storm @ $1.67 | Storm 64% | +7.1% |
| Sea Eagles v Dragons | Sea Eagles @ $1.41 | Sea Eagles 69% | +1.4% |
| Panthers v Bulldogs | Panthers @ $1.33 | Panthers 75% | +3.0% |
| Titans v Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs @ $1.35 | Rabbitohs 66% | — |
| Roosters v Dolphins | Roosters @ $1.55 | Roosters 62% | +0.7% |
| Cowboys v Wests Tigers | Cowboys @ $1.27 | Cowboys 78% | +2.8% |
| Warriors v Knights | Warriors @ $1.33 | Warriors 74% | +2.2% |
| Eels v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.50 | Sharks 62% | — |

## Match-by-match

### Broncos v Storm
Thu, 27 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 36.0% / Storm 64.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.67 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 64.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 50
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $2.60 — model probability 65.5% (edge +27.0%)
- Tyran Wishart @ $3.05 — model probability 48.7% (edge +15.9%)
- Moses Leo @ $1.71 — model probability 64.0% (edge +5.5%)
- Deine Mariner @ $2.95 — model probability 34.0% (edge +10.0%)
- Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown @ $1.97 — model probability 46.1% (edge -4.7%)
- Grant Anderson @ $1.85 — model probability 43.7% (edge -10.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $13.00 — model probability 17.6% (edge +9.9%)
- Moses Leo @ $9.50 — model probability 14.0% (edge +3.5%)
- Deine Mariner @ $15.00 — model probability 6.9% (edge +20.0%)
- Grant Anderson @ $9.50 — model probability 9.5% (edge -100.0%)
- Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown @ $10.00 — model probability 8.5% (edge -1.5%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-broncos-v-storm

### Sea Eagles v Dragons
Fri, 28 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.9% / Dragons 31.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 68.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Tyrell Sloan @ $1.92 — model probability 67.8% (edge +15.7%)
- Jason Saab @ $1.72 — model probability 70.3% (edge +12.1%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.55 — model probability 50.6% (edge +11.3%)
- Hamish Stewart @ $3.50 — model probability 39.2% (edge +10.6%)
- Reuben Garrick @ $2.60 — model probability 48.2% (edge +9.7%)
- Mathew Feagai @ $1.99 — model probability 46.5% (edge -3.7%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Tyrell Sloan @ $10.00 — model probability 23.5% (edge +13.5%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $13.00 — model probability 14.6% (edge +6.9%)
- Hamish Stewart @ $17.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +4.4%)
- Jason Saab @ $8.50 — model probability 15.8% (edge +4.0%)
- Mathew Feagai @ $10.00 — model probability 13.0% (edge +3.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-sea-eagles-v-dragons

### Panthers v Bulldogs
Fri, 28 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 74.7% / Bulldogs 25.3%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 74.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 41
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.90 — model probability 42.4% (edge +16.7%)
- Nathan Cleary @ $3.15 — model probability 35.8% (edge +4.1%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.59 — model probability 66.3% (edge +3.4%)
- Matt Burton @ $3.30 — model probability 29.2% (edge -1.1%)
- Brian To'o @ $1.85 — model probability 52.0% (edge -2.1%)
- Jacob Kiraz @ $2.80 — model probability 27.6% (edge -8.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jacob Preston @ $15.00 — model probability 12.7% (edge +6.0%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $6.50 — model probability 18.4% (edge +3.0%)
- Matt Burton @ $13.00 — model probability 8.9% (edge +1.2%)
- Jacob Kiraz @ $12.00 — model probability 8.3%
- Brian To'o @ $8.00 — model probability 12.4% (edge -10.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-panthers-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 34.4% / Rabbitohs 65.6%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Latrell Mitchell @ $2.75 — model probability 86.5% (edge +50.1%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $2.85 — model probability 56.0% (edge +20.9%)
- Alex Johnston @ $1.39 — model probability 86.5% (edge +14.5%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $2.15 — model probability 57.8% (edge +11.2%)
- Campbell Graham @ $1.74 — model probability 64.4% (edge +6.9%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $2.70 — model probability 38.3% (edge +1.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jayden Campbell @ $15.00 — model probability 13.4% (edge +6.8%)
- Phillip Sami @ $9.00 — model probability 15.1% (edge +4.0%)
- Alex Johnston @ $6.00 — model probability 19.2% (edge +2.5%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $15.00 — model probability 7.9% (edge +1.2%)
- AJ Brimson @ $18.00 — model probability 6.0% (edge +40.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-titans-v-rabbitohs

### Roosters v Dolphins
Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 62.2% / Dolphins 37.8%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +70.0%) — model probability 62.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- James Tedesco @ $2.12 — model probability 72.3% (edge +25.2%)
- Billy Smith @ $1.80 — model probability 74.9% (edge +19.3%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.98 — model probability 63.1% (edge +12.6%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.75 — model probability 69.7% (edge +12.5%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.55 — model probability 48.5% (edge +9.3%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $1.94 — model probability 58.5% (edge +7.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $10.00 — model probability 19.0% (edge +9.0%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $9.00 — model probability 16.8% (edge +5.6%)
- James Tedesco @ $10.00 — model probability 15.6% (edge +5.6%)
- Billy Smith @ $8.00 — model probability 16.8% (edge +4.3%)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $11.00 — model probability 12.0% (edge +2.9%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-roosters-v-dolphins

### Cowboys v Wests Tigers
Sat, 29 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 77.7% / Wests Tigers 22.3%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.27 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 77.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 12 · Predicted total: 50
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Solomone Saukuru @ $2.80 — model probability 76.0% (edge +40.3%)
- Heilum Luki @ $2.30 — model probability 65.4% (edge +21.9%)
- Tom Chester @ $2.20 — model probability 49.5% (edge +4.0%)
- Jeral Skelton @ $2.03 — model probability 48.7% (edge -60.0%)
- Braidon Burns @ $1.50 — model probability 60.7% (edge -6.0%)
- Scott Drinkwater @ $2.12 — model probability 31.5% (edge -15.6%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Solomone Saukuru @ $14.00 — model probability 25.1% (edge +17.9%)
- Heilum Luki @ $13.00 — model probability 13.1% (edge +5.4%)
- Jeral Skelton @ $12.00 — model probability 11.7% (edge +3.4%)
- Jaxon Purdue @ $13.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -1.3%)
- Braidon Burns @ $7.50 — model probability 11.5% (edge -1.8%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-cowboys-v-wests-tigers

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 73.8% / Knights 26.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 73.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $2.45 — model probability 70.1% (edge +29.3%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.40 — model probability 58.6% (edge +17.0%)
- Leka Halasima @ $2.30 — model probability 49.4% (edge +5.9%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.00 — model probability 54.1% (edge +4.1%)
- Bradman Best @ $3.20 — model probability 27.7% (edge -3.5%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $1.43 — model probability 65.5% (edge -4.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 22.6% (edge +14.9%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $10.00 — model probability 19.9% (edge +9.9%)
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $13.00 — model probability 16.1% (edge +8.4%)
- Fletcher Hunt @ $10.00 — model probability 12.1% (edge +2.1%)
- Bradman Best @ $15.00 — model probability 8.3% (edge +1.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-warriors-v-knights

### Eels v Sharks
Sun, 30 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 38.0% / Sharks 62.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 62.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.49 — model probability 74.4% (edge +7.3%)
- Sione Katoa @ $1.51 — model probability 72.0% (edge +5.8%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.30 — model probability 45.4% (edge +1.9%)
- KL Iro @ $2.40 — model probability 36.7% (edge -5.0%)
- Apa Twidle @ $3.05 — model probability 26.9% (edge -5.9%)
- Will Penisini @ $2.80 — model probability 13.7% (edge -22.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Tallyn Da Silva @ $15.00 — model probability 17.4% (edge +10.8%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $7.50 — model probability 18.7% (edge +5.3%)
- Sione Katoa @ $8.00 — model probability 17.4% (edge +4.9%)
- Apa Twidle @ $15.00 — model probability 6.8% (edge +10.0%)
- William Kennedy @ $12.00 — model probability 8.3%
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-eels-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.9% | 124/191 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.4% | 100/191 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.4% | 44/188 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.5% | 108/191 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.7% | 464/1264 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 44/796 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/25 (markdown: /nrl/round/25.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-25 08:00 UTC (latest tip update)