# NRL Round 26 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 26 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 26 at a glance
- 8 matches · 13W–19L on 32 settled picks (41% strike rate) · best value +7.1% edge

## Round 26 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos v Storm | Storm @ $1.67 | Storm 64% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Dragons | Sea Eagles @ $1.41 | Sea Eagles 69% | WON |
| Panthers v Bulldogs | Panthers @ $1.33 | Panthers 75% | WON |
| Titans v Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs @ $1.35 | Rabbitohs 66% | WON |
| Roosters v Dolphins | Roosters @ $1.55 | Roosters 62% | LOST |
| Cowboys v Wests Tigers | Cowboys @ $1.27 | Cowboys 78% | WON |
| Warriors v Knights | Warriors @ $1.33 | Warriors 74% | WON |
| Eels v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.50 | Sharks 62% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Broncos v Storm
Thu, 27 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 36.0% / Storm 64.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.67 (edge +7.1%) — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 9 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-broncos-v-storm

### Sea Eagles v Dragons
Fri, 28 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · Brookvale Oval · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 68.9% / Dragons 31.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.41 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 68.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-sea-eagles-v-dragons

### Panthers v Bulldogs
Fri, 28 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 74.7% / Bulldogs 25.3%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 74.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-panthers-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Rabbitohs
Sat, 29 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 34.4% / Rabbitohs 65.6%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.35 (edge -4.8%) — model probability 65.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 8 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-titans-v-rabbitohs

### Roosters v Dolphins
Sat, 29 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 62.2% / Dolphins 37.8%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.55 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 62.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-roosters-v-dolphins

### Cowboys v Wests Tigers
Sat, 29 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 77.7% / Wests Tigers 22.3%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.27 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 77.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 12 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-cowboys-v-wests-tigers

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 30 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 73.8% / Knights 26.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 73.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-warriors-v-knights

### Eels v Sharks
Sun, 30 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 26
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 38.0% / Sharks 62.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.50 (edge -1.3%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r26-eels-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.4% | 139/216 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50% | 108/216 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.5% | 50/213 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 121/216 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 542/1462 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.2% | 48/921 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/25 (markdown: /nrl/round/25.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/27 (markdown: /nrl/round/27.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-30 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)