# NRL Round 25 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 25 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 25 at a glance
- 8 matches · 16W–16L on 32 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +9.4% edge

## Round 25 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.40 | Panthers 62% | WON |
| Raiders v Broncos | Raiders @ $1.31 | Raiders 75% | LOST |
| Dolphins v Eels | Dolphins @ $1.24 | Dolphins 76% | WON |
| Knights v Sea Eagles | Knights @ $1.47 | Knights 64% | LOST |
| Rabbitohs v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.67 | Warriors 57% | WON |
| Dragons v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.48 | Bulldogs 58% | WON |
| Titans v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.46 | Sharks 75% | WON |
| Roosters v Wests Tigers | Roosters @ $1.06 | Roosters 80% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Storm v Panthers
Thu, 20 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 38.2% / Panthers 61.8%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.40 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 61.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-storm-v-panthers

### Raiders v Broncos
Fri, 21 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 74.7% / Broncos 25.3%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.31 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 74.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 11 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-raiders-v-broncos

### Dolphins v Eels
Fri, 21 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 76.2% / Eels 23.8%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.24 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 76.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 14 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-dolphins-v-eels

### Knights v Sea Eagles
Sat, 22 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 64.0% / Sea Eagles 36.0%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.47 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 64.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 7 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-knights-v-sea-eagles

### Rabbitohs v Warriors
Sat, 22 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 42.8% / Warriors 57.2%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.67 (edge +0.1%) — model probability 57.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-rabbitohs-v-warriors

### Dragons v Bulldogs
Sat, 22 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 41.6% / Bulldogs 58.4%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.48 (edge -5.9%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-dragons-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Sharks
Sun, 23 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 25.4% / Sharks 74.6%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.46 (edge +9.4%) — model probability 74.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-titans-v-sharks

### Roosters v Wests Tigers
Sun, 23 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 25
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 80.4% / Wests Tigers 19.6%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.06 (edge -9.6%) — model probability 80.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +23.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 16 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r25-roosters-v-wests-tigers

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 65.2% | 135/207 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 51.2% | 106/207 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23% | 47/204 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.1% | 114/207 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 515/1390 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 48/876 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/24 (markdown: /nrl/round/24.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/26 (markdown: /nrl/round/26.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-23 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)