# NRL Round 24 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 24 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 24 at a glance
- 8 matches · 32 picks pending · best value +3.8% edge

## Round 24 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers v Roosters | Panthers @ $1.77 | Panthers 54% | — |
| Sea Eagles v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $1.35 | Dolphins 72% | +1.7% |
| Bulldogs v Rabbitohs | Bulldogs @ $1.57 | Bulldogs 60% | — |
| Sharks v Raiders | Sharks @ $1.31 | Sharks 76% | +3.1% |
| Eels v Cowboys | Cowboys @ $1.54 | Cowboys 55% | — |
| Broncos v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.42 | Warriors 67% | — |
| Knights v Titans | Knights @ $1.22 | Knights 70% | — |
| Wests Tigers v Dragons | Wests Tigers @ $1.93 | Wests Tigers 54% | +3.8% |

## Match-by-match

### Panthers v Roosters
Thu, 13 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 54.0% / Roosters 46.0%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.77 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 54.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 38
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $2.35 — model probability 62.2% (edge +19.6%)
- James Tedesco @ $2.60 — model probability 57.4% (edge +18.9%)
- Jaxen Edgar @ $2.90 — model probability 45.7% (edge +11.2%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.73 — model probability 67.8% (edge +10.0%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $2.00 — model probability 59.0% (edge +9.0%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.90 — model probability 34.0% (edge -50.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Thomas Jenkins @ $7.00 — model probability 22.7% (edge +8.4%)
- Billy Smith @ $11.00 — model probability 16.2% (edge +7.1%)
- James Tedesco @ $12.00 — model probability 14.2% (edge +5.9%)
- Jaxen Edgar @ $13.00 — model probability 12.2% (edge +4.5%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $9.00 — model probability 14.9% (edge +3.8%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-panthers-v-roosters

### Sea Eagles v Dolphins
Fri, 14 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 27.7% / Dolphins 72.3%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.7%) — model probability 72.3%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 13 · Predicted total: 55
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Clayton Faulalo @ $2.70 — model probability 61.6% (edge +24.6%)
- Jason Saab @ $2.12 — model probability 67.3% (edge +20.1%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.55 — model probability 82.0% (edge +17.5%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $2.45 — model probability 57.2% (edge +16.3%)
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow @ $1.74 — model probability 70.4% (edge +12.9%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $2.80 — model probability 48.2% (edge +12.5%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jason Saab @ $12.00 — model probability 17.0% (edge +8.7%)
- Clayton Faulalo @ $13.00 — model probability 14.6% (edge +6.9%)
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $8.00 — model probability 18.4% (edge +5.9%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $13.00 — model probability 12.9% (edge +5.2%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $13.00 — model probability 10.0% (edge +2.4%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sea-eagles-v-dolphins

### Bulldogs v Rabbitohs
Fri, 14 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 59.8% / Rabbitohs 40.2%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.57 (edge -80.0%) — model probability 59.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 4 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Stephen Crichton @ $2.90 — model probability 64.3% (edge +29.8%)
- Alex Johnston @ $1.73 — model probability 80.8% (edge +23.0%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $3.25 — model probability 45.0% (edge +14.2%)
- Campbell Graham @ $2.20 — model probability 57.5% (edge +12.1%)
- Jacob Preston @ $3.10 — model probability 37.3% (edge +5.1%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $1.83 — model probability 49.7% (edge -4.9%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $7.50 — model probability 24.0% (edge +10.7%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $14.00 — model probability 16.9% (edge +9.7%)
- Campbell Graham @ $10.00 — model probability 12.5% (edge +2.5%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $14.00 — model probability 8.7% (edge +1.6%)
- Jacob Preston @ $14.00 — model probability 7.6% (edge +50.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-bulldogs-v-rabbitohs

### Sharks v Raiders
Sat, 15 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 75.7% / Raiders 24.3%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.31 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 75.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 14 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Nicho Hynes @ $2.55 — model probability 58.5% (edge +19.3%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.64 — model probability 72.0% (edge +11.0%)
- Sione Katoa @ $1.60 — model probability 72.2% (edge +9.7%)
- Jed Stuart @ $2.10 — model probability 54.0% (edge +6.3%)
- KL Iro @ $2.07 — model probability 53.4% (edge +5.1%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.40 — model probability 43.0% (edge +1.3%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jed Stuart @ $12.00 — model probability 11.4% (edge +3.1%)
- Ethan Strange @ $15.00 — model probability 9.5% (edge +2.8%)
- Nicho Hynes @ $13.00 — model probability 10.2% (edge +2.5%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $8.00 — model probability 14.8% (edge +2.2%)
- Sione Katoa @ $7.50 — model probability 14.8% (edge +1.5%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-sharks-v-raiders

### Eels v Cowboys
Sat, 15 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 45.2% / Cowboys 54.8%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.54 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 54.8%
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 2 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Heilum Luki @ $2.65 — model probability 65.5% (edge +27.8%)
- Tom Chester @ $2.40 — model probability 50.6% (edge +8.9%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $2.80 — model probability 43.5% (edge +7.8%)
- Braidon Burns @ $1.62 — model probability 66.8% (edge +5.1%)
- Will Penisini @ $2.70 — model probability 36.9% (edge -10.0%)
- Scott Drinkwater @ $2.25 — model probability 32.7% (edge -11.7%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Heilum Luki @ $13.00 — model probability 17.3% (edge +9.6%)
- Braidon Burns @ $7.50 — model probability 17.9% (edge +4.6%)
- Tom Chester @ $13.00 — model probability 11.4% (edge +3.7%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $14.00 — model probability 10.8% (edge +3.7%)
- Will Penisini @ $14.00 — model probability 8.7% (edge +1.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-eels-v-cowboys

### Broncos v Warriors
Sat, 15 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 33.3% / Warriors 66.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.42 (edge -20.0%) — model probability 66.7%
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 52
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Ezra Mam @ $3.05 — model probability 48.7% (edge +15.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $2.80 — model probability 39.6% (edge +3.9%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $1.61 — model probability 64.4% (edge +2.3%)
- Luke Metcalf @ $2.70 — model probability 37.9% (edge +90.0%)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak @ $1.64 — model probability 56.1% (edge -4.9%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $2.75 — model probability 21.6% (edge -14.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Deine Mariner @ $15.00 — model probability 8.9% (edge +2.2%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $7.50 — model probability 15.2% (edge +1.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $13.00 — model probability 7.4% (edge -30.0%)
- Luke Metcalf @ $13.00 — model probability 7.0% (edge -70.0%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $13.00 — model probability 6.9% (edge -70.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-broncos-v-warriors

### Knights v Titans
Sun, 16 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 69.9% / Titans 30.1%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.22 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 69.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Knights by 9 · Predicted total: 48
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.12 — model probability 66.3% (edge +19.2%)
- Phillip Sami @ $2.03 — model probability 66.7% (edge +17.4%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $3.00 — model probability 42.6% (edge +9.2%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $3.30 — model probability 35.5% (edge +5.2%)
- Dominic Young @ $1.51 — model probability 66.7% (edge +50.0%)
- AJ Brimson @ $3.50 — model probability 27.9% (edge -70.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Phillip Sami @ $11.00 — model probability 20.5% (edge +11.4%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $11.00 — model probability 17.1% (edge +8.0%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $15.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +3.7%)
- Dominic Young @ $6.50 — model probability 17.3% (edge +1.9%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $15.00 — model probability 8.2% (edge +1.5%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-knights-v-titans

### Wests Tigers v Dragons
Sun, 16 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 24
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 53.6% / Dragons 46.4%
- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.93 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 53.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 2 · Predicted total: 45
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Adam Doueihi @ $2.45 — model probability 61.5% (edge +20.6%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $2.15 — model probability 58.9% (edge +12.4%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $1.69 — model probability 66.6% (edge +7.4%)
- Setu Tu @ $1.89 — model probability 51.7% (edge -1.2%)
- Moses Suli @ $3.25 — model probability 12.9% (edge -17.9%)
- Jahream Bula @ $2.35 — model probability 15.8% (edge -26.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Adam Doueihi @ $13.00 — model probability 26.5% (edge +18.8%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $8.50 — model probability 17.0% (edge +5.2%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $10.00 — model probability 13.8% (edge +3.8%)
- Setu Tu @ $9.50 — model probability 11.3% (edge +70.0%)
- Jahream Bula @ $12.00 — model probability 4.8% (edge -3.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r24-wests-tigers-v-dragons

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 66.3% | 116/175 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52% | 91/175 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.3% | 40/172 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56% | 98/175 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 413/1137 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.9% | 42/715 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/23 (markdown: /nrl/round/23.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-08-11 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)