# NRL Round 23 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 23 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 23 at a glance
- 8 matches · 32 picks pending · best value +8.6% edge

## Round 23 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans v Cowboys | Cowboys @ $1.59 | Cowboys 53% | — |
| Warriors v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.53 | Panthers 55% | — |
| Roosters v Bulldogs | Roosters @ $1.33 | Roosters 74% | +2.3% |
| Storm v Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles @ $1.72 | Sea Eagles 64% | +8.6% |
| Dolphins v Broncos | Dolphins @ $1.42 | Dolphins 69% | +2.6% |
| Rabbitohs v Eels | Rabbitohs @ $1.37 | Rabbitohs 65% | — |
| Raiders v Knights | Raiders @ $1.84 | Raiders 55% | +2.4% |
| Dragons v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.19 | Sharks 80% | +0.3% |

## Match-by-match

### Titans v Cowboys
Thu, 06 Aug, 07:50 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 47.4% / Cowboys 52.6%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.59 (edge -7.3%) — model probability 52.6%
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 0 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Jayden Campbell @ $2.65 — model probability 63.1% (edge +25.4%)
- Phillip Sami @ $2.03 — model probability 71.9% (edge +22.7%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $3.00 — model probability 53.9% (edge +20.6%)
- Tom Chester @ $2.45 — model probability 43.4% (edge +2.6%)
- Braidon Burns @ $1.64 — model probability 61.8% (edge +80.0%)
- AJ Brimson @ $3.35 — model probability 30.3% (edge +40.0%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Braidon Burns @ $7.50 — model probability 22.7% (edge +9.4%)
- Phillip Sami @ $11.00 — model probability 15.1% (edge +6.1%)
- Tom Chester @ $13.00 — model probability 13.5% (edge +5.8%)
- Jayden Campbell @ $13.00 — model probability 11.9% (edge +4.2%)
- Jojo Fifita @ $15.00 — model probability 9.2% (edge +2.6%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-titans-v-cowboys

### Warriors v Panthers
Fri, 07 Aug, 06:00 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 44.9% / Panthers 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.53 (edge -7.1%) — model probability 55.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 2 · Predicted total: 44
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Liam Martin @ $3.15 — model probability 50.5% (edge +18.8%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.63 — model probability 69.9% (edge +8.5%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $2.08 — model probability 56.4% (edge +8.3%)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak @ $2.08 — model probability 51.8% (edge +3.7%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $3.70 — model probability 30.6% (edge +3.6%)
- Jaxen Edgar @ $3.00 — model probability 28.1% (edge -5.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Thomas Jenkins @ $7.00 — model probability 24.1% (edge +9.8%)
- Liam Martin @ $13.00 — model probability 14.1% (edge +6.5%)
- Alofiana Khan-Pereira @ $10.00 — model probability 15.2% (edge +5.2%)
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak @ $9.50 — model probability 13.3% (edge +2.8%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $15.00 — model probability 6.7%
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-warriors-v-panthers

### Roosters v Bulldogs
Fri, 07 Aug, 08:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 73.5% / Bulldogs 26.5%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.33 (edge +2.3%) — model probability 73.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 11 · Predicted total: 43
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- James Tedesco @ $2.08 — model probability 71.2% (edge +23.1%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $3.50 — model probability 47.5% (edge +18.9%)
- Billy Smith @ $1.80 — model probability 71.1% (edge +15.6%)
- Jethro Rinakama @ $2.12 — model probability 61.5% (edge +14.3%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.45 — model probability 52.7% (edge +11.8%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.55 — model probability 75.4% (edge +10.9%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jethro Rinakama @ $10.00 — model probability 18.1% (edge +8.1%)
- Stephen Crichton @ $17.00 — model probability 12.2% (edge +6.4%)
- James Tedesco @ $10.00 — model probability 15.9% (edge +5.9%)
- Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $7.00 — model probability 17.9% (edge +3.6%)
- Billy Smith @ $8.00 — model probability 15.9% (edge +3.4%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-roosters-v-bulldogs

### Storm v Sea Eagles
Sat, 08 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · HBF Park · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 36.1% / Sea Eagles 63.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.72 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 63.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 48
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Jason Saab @ $1.83 — model probability 82.6% (edge +28.0%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $2.20 — model probability 73.5% (edge +28.0%)
- Lehi Hopoate @ $2.30 — model probability 64.2% (edge +20.7%)
- Moses Leo @ $1.87 — model probability 64.3% (edge +10.8%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $2.15 — model probability 54.9% (edge +8.4%)
- Nick Meaney @ $3.10 — model probability 34.7% (edge +2.5%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Jason Saab @ $9.50 — model probability 23.8% (edge +13.3%)
- Moses Leo @ $10.00 — model probability 19.8% (edge +9.8%)
- Haumole Olakau'atu @ $12.00 — model probability 18.1% (edge +9.7%)
- Lehi Hopoate @ $12.00 — model probability 14.0% (edge +5.7%)
- Tolutau Koula @ $11.00 — model probability 10.8% (edge +1.8%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-storm-v-sea-eagles

### Dolphins v Broncos
Sat, 08 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 69.5% / Broncos 30.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.42 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 69.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 46
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $1.63 — model probability 72.7% (edge +11.4%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $2.55 — model probability 47.9% (edge +8.7%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $2.25 — model probability 45.2% (edge +80.0%)
- Deine Mariner @ $3.05 — model probability 32.6% (edge -20.0%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $1.67 — model probability 59.2% (edge -70.0%)
- Reece Walsh @ $2.35 — model probability 36.1% (edge -6.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Selwyn Cobbo @ $8.00 — model probability 18.9% (edge +6.4%)
- Kotoni Staggs @ $13.00 — model probability 12.4% (edge +4.8%)
- Josiah Karapani @ $12.00 — model probability 11.5% (edge +3.2%)
- Jamayne Isaako @ $8.00 — model probability 13.0% (edge +50.0%)
- Deine Mariner @ $14.00 — model probability 7.5% (edge +40.0%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dolphins-v-broncos

### Rabbitohs v Eels
Sat, 08 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 64.9% / Eels 35.1%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.37 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 64.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 4 · Predicted total: 50
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $1.52 — model probability 86.5% (edge +20.7%)
- Campbell Graham @ $1.75 — model probability 70.5% (edge +13.4%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $2.30 — model probability 55.8% (edge +12.3%)
- Will Penisini @ $3.05 — model probability 38.2% (edge +5.4%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $2.95 — model probability 35.2% (edge +1.3%)
- Jordan Samrani @ $3.50 — model probability 27.4% (edge -1.2%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Alex Johnston @ $6.50 — model probability 25.2% (edge +9.8%)
- Campbell Graham @ $8.50 — model probability 15.4% (edge +3.6%)
- Will Penisini @ $15.00 — model probability 9.5% (edge +2.8%)
- Isaiah Iongi @ $14.00 — model probability 8.6% (edge +1.4%)
- Tallis Duncan @ $11.00 — model probability 10.3% (edge +1.2%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-rabbitohs-v-eels

### Raiders v Knights
Sun, 09 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 54.5% / Knights 45.5%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.84 (edge +2.4%) — model probability 54.5%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 46
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $2.70 — model probability 55.3% (edge +18.2%)
- Xavier Savage @ $1.90 — model probability 69.0% (edge +16.4%)
- Ethan Strange @ $2.85 — model probability 49.3% (edge +14.2%)
- Kaeo Weekes @ $2.07 — model probability 58.8% (edge +10.5%)
- Jed Stuart @ $2.12 — model probability 54.3% (edge +7.1%)
- Kalyn Ponga @ $2.65 — model probability 44.1% (edge +6.4%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 13.8% (edge +6.1%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $9.00 — model probability 16.7% (edge +5.6%)
- Xavier Savage @ $9.50 — model probability 16.1% (edge +5.6%)
- Dominic Young @ $9.00 — model probability 15.2% (edge +4.1%)
- Kalyn Ponga @ $13.00 — model probability 10.0% (edge +2.3%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-raiders-v-knights

### Dragons v Sharks
Sun, 09 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium · Round 23
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 19.8% / Sharks 80.2%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.19 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 80.2%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 53
**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Sione Katoa @ $1.53 — model probability 86.5% (edge +21.1%)
- William Kennedy @ $2.25 — model probability 63.8% (edge +19.4%)
- Tyrell Sloan @ $2.12 — model probability 65.8% (edge +18.7%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $1.48 — model probability 84.5% (edge +17.0%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $3.05 — model probability 44.5% (edge +11.7%)
- Jesse Ramien @ $2.40 — model probability 47.2% (edge +5.5%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Tyrell Sloan @ $12.00 — model probability 22.8% (edge +14.5%)
- Sione Katoa @ $7.50 — model probability 19.5% (edge +6.2%)
- Valentine Holmes @ $15.00 — model probability 12.5% (edge +5.8%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $7.50 — model probability 18.2% (edge +4.9%)
- Setu Tu @ $12.00 — model probability 12.8% (edge +4.4%)
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r23-dragons-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.1% | 112/167 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.1% | 87/167 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 22.6% | 37/164 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.9% | 95/167 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 390/1073 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.6% | 38/675 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/22 (markdown: /nrl/round/22.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-04 10:14 UTC (latest tip update)