# NRL Round 22 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 22 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 22 at a glance
- 8 matches · 20W–12L on 32 settled picks (63% strike rate) · best value +1.1% edge

## Round 22 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys v Roosters | Roosters @ $1.52 | Roosters 61% | WON |
| Dragons v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $1.21 | Dolphins 70% | WON |
| Storm v Bulldogs | Bulldogs @ $1.53 | Bulldogs 61% | WON |
| Titans v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.52 | Warriors 60% | WON |
| Panthers v Raiders | Panthers @ $1.33 | Panthers 69% | WON |
| Broncos v Knights | Broncos @ $1.50 | Broncos 61% | LOST |
| Sharks v Rabbitohs | Sharks @ $1.28 | Sharks 76% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Eels | Eels @ $1.41 | Eels 61% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Cowboys v Roosters
Thu, 30 July, 07:50 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 39.1% / Roosters 60.9%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.52 (edge -1.7%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-cowboys-v-roosters

### Dragons v Dolphins
Fri, 31 July, 06:00 pm AEST · WIN Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 30.1% / Dolphins 69.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.21 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 69.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-dragons-v-dolphins

### Storm v Bulldogs
Fri, 31 July, 08:00 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 39.0% / Bulldogs 61.0%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.53 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-storm-v-bulldogs

### Titans v Warriors
Sat, 01 Aug, 03:00 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 40.2% / Warriors 59.8%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -2.6%) — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-titans-v-warriors

### Panthers v Raiders
Sat, 01 Aug, 05:30 pm AEST · Glen Willow Oval · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 69.3% / Raiders 30.7%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-panthers-v-raiders

### Broncos v Knights
Sat, 01 Aug, 07:35 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 61.1% / Knights 38.9%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.50 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-broncos-v-knights

### Sharks v Rabbitohs
Sun, 02 Aug, 02:00 pm AEST · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 75.6% / Rabbitohs 24.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.28 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 75.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 15 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-sharks-v-rabbitohs

### Wests Tigers v Eels
Sun, 02 Aug, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 22
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 39.5% / Eels 60.5%
- **Head to Head:** Eels to win @ $1.41 (edge -7.0%) — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Eels 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Eels by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r22-wests-tigers-v-eels

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.9% | 137/211 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.7% | 107/211 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 23.6% | 49/208 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.9% | 118/211 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 37.1% | 527/1422 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.4% | 48/896 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/21 (markdown: /nrl/round/21.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/23 (markdown: /nrl/round/23.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-08-02 07:56 UTC (latest tip update)