# NRL Round 21 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 21 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 21 at a glance
- 8 matches · 15W–17L on 32 settled picks (47% strike rate) · best value +5.4% edge

## Round 21 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.16 | Panthers 72% | WON |
| Knights v Roosters | Roosters @ $1.71 | Roosters 55% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Storm | Storm @ $1.85 | Storm 57% | LOST |
| Raiders v Wests Tigers | Raiders @ $1.22 | Raiders 74% | WON |
| Bulldogs v Warriors | Warriors @ $1.53 | Warriors 58% | LOST |
| Cowboys v Broncos | Broncos @ $1.72 | Broncos 53% | LOST |
| Dragons v Titans | Dragons @ $1.91 | Dragons 56% | LOST |
| Sea Eagles v Sharks | Sharks @ $1.63 | Sharks 55% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Eels v Panthers
Thu, 23 July, 07:50 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 27.9% / Panthers 72.1%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.16 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 72.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 10 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-eels-v-panthers

### Knights v Roosters
Fri, 24 July, 06:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 45.0% / Roosters 55.0%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.71 (edge -70.0%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-knights-v-roosters

### Rabbitohs v Storm
Fri, 24 July, 08:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 42.9% / Storm 57.1%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.85 (edge +5.1%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-rabbitohs-v-storm

### Raiders v Wests Tigers
Sat, 25 July, 03:00 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 73.9% / Wests Tigers 26.1%
- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.22 (edge -3.8%) — model probability 73.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 12 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-raiders-v-wests-tigers

### Bulldogs v Warriors
Sat, 25 July, 05:30 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 42.3% / Warriors 57.7%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.53 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-bulldogs-v-warriors

### Cowboys v Broncos
Sat, 25 July, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 46.7% / Broncos 53.3%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.72 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-cowboys-v-broncos

### Dragons v Titans
Sun, 26 July, 02:00 pm AEST · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 55.5% / Titans 44.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 55.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dragons 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-dragons-v-titans

### Sea Eagles v Sharks
Sun, 26 July, 04:05 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 21
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 44.9% / Sharks 55.1%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.63 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 55.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 8 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-sea-eagles-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 65.3% | 130/199 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.3% | 104/199 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 22.4% | 44/196 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 55.8% | 111/199 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.9% | 490/1327 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.5% | 46/836 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/20 (markdown: /nrl/round/20.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/22 (markdown: /nrl/round/22.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-26 07:59 UTC (latest tip update)