# NRL Round 16 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 16 of the 2026 season — 7 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 16 at a glance
- 7 matches · 14W–14L on 28 settled picks (50% strike rate) · best value +4.3% edge

## Round 16 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights v Dragons | Knights @ $1.24 | Knights 77% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $1.39 | Dolphins 69% | WON |
| Titans v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.23 | Panthers 80% | LOST |
| Bulldogs v Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles @ $1.42 | Sea Eagles 66% | LOST |
| Warriors v Cowboys | Warriors @ $1.37 | Warriors 71% | WON |
| Storm v Raiders | Storm @ $1.38 | Storm 73% | WON |
| Roosters v Sharks | Roosters @ $1.52 | Roosters 64% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Knights v Dragons
Fri, 19 June, 08:00 pm AEST · McDonald Jones Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 76.7% / Dragons 23.3%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.24 (edge -10.0%) — model probability 76.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 14 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-knights-v-dragons

### Wests Tigers v Dolphins
Sat, 20 June, 03:00 pm AEST · Campbelltown Sports Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 30.8% / Dolphins 69.3%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.39 (edge +70.0%) — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 10 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-wests-tigers-v-dolphins

### Titans v Panthers
Sat, 20 June, 05:30 pm AEST · Cbus Super Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 20.1% / Panthers 79.9%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.23 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 79.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 10 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-titans-v-panthers

### Bulldogs v Sea Eagles
Sat, 20 June, 07:35 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 34.1% / Sea Eagles 65.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.42 (edge -1.1%) — model probability 65.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-bulldogs-v-sea-eagles

### Warriors v Cowboys
Sun, 21 June, 02:00 pm AEST · One NZ Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 70.6% / Cowboys 29.4%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.37 (edge +1.1%) — model probability 70.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-warriors-v-cowboys

### Storm v Raiders
Sun, 21 June, 04:05 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 73.5% / Raiders 26.5%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.38 (edge +4.3%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 11 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-storm-v-raiders

### Roosters v Sharks
Sun, 21 June, 06:15 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 16
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 64.4% / Sharks 35.6%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.52 (edge +1.9%) — model probability 64.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r16-roosters-v-sharks

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 66.3% | 106/160 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 51.3% | 82/160 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 21.7% | 34/157 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.3% | 90/160 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.6% | 372/1017 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.8% | 37/640 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/15 (markdown: /nrl/round/15.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/17 (markdown: /nrl/round/17.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-21 10:05 UTC (latest tip update)