# NRL Round 11 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 11 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 11 at a glance
- 8 matches · 17W–15L on 32 settled picks (53% strike rate) · best value +34.7% edge

## Round 11 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks v Bulldogs | Sharks @ $1.57 | Sharks 66% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Dolphins | Dolphins @ $1.80 | Dolphins 57% | WON |
| Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles @ $1.36 | Sea Eagles 68% | WON |
| Roosters v Cowboys | Roosters @ $1.18 | Roosters 71% | LOST |
| Eels v Storm | Storm @ $1.37 | Storm 61% | WON |
| Titans v Knights | Knights @ $1.33 | Knights 62% | WON |
| Warriors v Broncos | Warriors @ $1.69 | Warriors 66% | WON |
| Panthers v Dragons | Panthers @ $1.04 | Panthers 78% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Sharks v Bulldogs
Fri, 15 May, 06:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 66.1% / Bulldogs 33.9%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.57 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 66.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-sharks-v-bulldogs

### Rabbitohs v Dolphins
Fri, 15 May, 08:05 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 43.4% / Dolphins 56.6%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.80 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 56.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-rabbitohs-v-dolphins

### Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles
Sat, 16 May, 03:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Wests Tigers 32.5% / Sea Eagles 67.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.36 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 8 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-wests-tigers-v-sea-eagles

### Roosters v Cowboys
Sat, 16 May, 05:30 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 71.2% / Cowboys 28.8%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.18 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 71.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 9 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-roosters-v-cowboys

### Eels v Storm
Sat, 16 May, 07:45 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Eels 39.1% / Storm 60.9%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.37 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 60.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-eels-v-storm

### Titans v Knights
Sun, 17 May, 02:00 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Titans 37.6% / Knights 62.4%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.33 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 5 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-titans-v-knights

### Warriors v Broncos
Sun, 17 May, 04:05 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 65.9% / Broncos 34.1%
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.69 (edge +9.6%) — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-warriors-v-broncos

### Panthers v Dragons
Sun, 17 May, 06:25 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 11
Alphr AI win probability: Panthers 78.3% / Dragons 21.7%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.04 (edge -13.1%) — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r11-panthers-v-dragons

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.2% | 86/128 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50% | 64/128 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 20.6% | 26/126 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.3% | 72/128 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/10 (markdown: /nrl/round/10.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/12 (markdown: /nrl/round/12.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/11
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-27 21:16 UTC