# NRL Round 10 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 10 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 10 at a glance
- 8 matches · 15W–17L on 32 settled picks (47% strike rate) · best value +14.2% edge

## Round 10 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins v Bulldogs | Dolphins @ $1.50 | Dolphins 69% | WON |
| Roosters v Titans | Roosters @ $1.13 | Roosters 81% | WON |
| Cowboys v Eels | Cowboys @ $1.34 | Cowboys 76% | LOST |
| Dragons v Knights | Knights @ $1.35 | Knights 67% | WON |
| Rabbitohs v Sharks | Rabbitohs @ $1.66 | Rabbitohs 60% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Broncos | Sea Eagles @ $1.70 | Sea Eagles 66% | WON |
| Storm v Wests Tigers | Storm @ $1.62 | Storm 73% | WON |
| Raiders v Panthers | Panthers @ $1.30 | Panthers 73% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Dolphins v Bulldogs
Thu, 07 May, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 69.0% / Bulldogs 31.0%
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.50 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-dolphins-v-bulldogs

### Roosters v Titans
Fri, 08 May, 06:00 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Roosters 80.8% / Titans 19.1%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.13 (edge -3.4%) — model probability 80.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 13 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-roosters-v-titans

### Cowboys v Eels
Fri, 08 May, 08:00 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Cowboys 75.8% / Eels 24.2%
- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.34 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 75.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 12 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-cowboys-v-eels

### Dragons v Knights
Sat, 09 May, 03:00 pm AEST · WIN Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Dragons 33.1% / Knights 66.9%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.35 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 66.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 7 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-dragons-v-knights

### Rabbitohs v Sharks
Sat, 09 May, 05:30 pm AEST · Accor Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Rabbitohs 60.2% / Sharks 39.8%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.66 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 5 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-rabbitohs-v-sharks

### Sea Eagles v Broncos
Sat, 09 May, 07:35 pm AEST · 4 Pines Park · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 66.0% / Broncos 34.0%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.70 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 66.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 3 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-sea-eagles-v-broncos

### Storm v Wests Tigers
Sun, 10 May, 02:00 pm AEST · AAMI Park · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 73.0% / Wests Tigers 27.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.62 (edge +14.2%) — model probability 73.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 2 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-storm-v-wests-tigers

### Raiders v Panthers
Sun, 10 May, 04:05 pm AEST · GIO Stadium · Round 10
Alphr AI win probability: Raiders 26.6% / Panthers 73.4%
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.30 (edge +20.0%) — model probability 73.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 46
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r10-raiders-v-panthers

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.1% | 112/167 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 52.1% | 87/167 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 22.6% | 37/164 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 56.9% | 95/167 |
| Anytime Try Scorer | Try Scorer | 36.3% | 390/1073 |
| First Try Scorer | First Try Scorer | 5.6% | 38/675 |

## More NRL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/9 (markdown: /nrl/round/9.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/11 (markdown: /nrl/round/11.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-10 07:53 UTC (latest tip update)