# NRL Round 1 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NRL predictions for Round 1 of the 2026 season — 8 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 1 at a glance
- 8 matches · 14W–18L on 32 settled picks (44% strike rate) · best value +11.4% edge

## Round 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights v Cowboys | Knights @ $2.41 | Knights 51% | WON |
| Bulldogs v Dragons | Bulldogs @ $1.38 | Bulldogs 75% | WON |
| Storm v Eels | Storm @ $1.42 | Storm 72% | WON |
| Warriors v Roosters | Roosters @ $1.51 | Roosters 61% | LOST |
| Broncos v Panthers | Broncos @ $1.70 | Broncos 56% | LOST |
| Sharks v Titans | Sharks @ $1.26 | Sharks 80% | WON |
| Sea Eagles v Raiders | Sea Eagles @ $1.91 | Sea Eagles 51% | LOST |
| Dolphins v Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs @ $2.00 | Rabbitohs 51% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Knights v Cowboys
Sun, 01 Mar, 01:15 pm AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Knights 50.8% / Cowboys 49.2%
- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $2.41 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.8 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 2 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-knights-v-cowboys

### Bulldogs v Dragons
Sun, 01 Mar, 03:30 pm AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Bulldogs 75.3% / Dragons 24.7%
- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.38 (edge +6.4%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-bulldogs-v-dragons

### Storm v Eels
Thu, 05 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · AAMI Park · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Storm 72.0% / Eels 28.0%
- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.42 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-storm-v-eels

### Warriors v Roosters
Fri, 06 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT · Go Media Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Warriors 39.4% / Roosters 60.6%
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.51 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 60.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-warriors-v-roosters

### Broncos v Panthers
Fri, 06 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Broncos 56.1% / Panthers 43.9%
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.70 (edge +20.0%) — model probability 56.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 4 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-broncos-v-panthers

### Sharks v Titans
Sat, 07 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT · Ocean Protect Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sharks 79.7% / Titans 20.4%
- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.26 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 79.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-sharks-v-titans

### Sea Eagles v Raiders
Sat, 07 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT · 4 Pines Park · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Sea Eagles 50.5% / Raiders 49.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — model probability 50.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-sea-eagles-v-raiders

### Dolphins v Rabbitohs
Sun, 08 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT · Suncorp Stadium · Round 1
Alphr AI win probability: Dolphins 48.7% / Rabbitohs 51.3%
- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $2.00 (edge +3.4%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r1-dolphins-v-rabbitohs

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 67.7% | 90/133 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 50.4% | 67/133 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 21.4% | 28/131 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 57.1% | 76/133 |

## More NRL predictions
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/2 (markdown: /nrl/round/2.md)
- All NRL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nrl (markdown: /nrl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/round/1
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-05 03:25 UTC