# Warriors v Knights — NRL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Warriors v Knights?

Alphr's NRL model rates Warriors a narrow 55% favourite over Knights in Semi Finals — effectively a coin-flip. Predicted result: Warriors by 2 in a low-scoring game (42 total, under the 44.5 line). **Confidence: Low.** Warriors lead on Team ELO, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Chanel Harris-Tavita leads at +33.6% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Warriors v Knights
Sun, 20 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Eden Park, Auckland · Semi Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 55.0%
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview

**New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2026, 08:59 pm_

Warriors meet Knights in NRL Semi Finals at Eden Park, Auckland. The model makes Warriors the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

Alphr's model has the Warriors at 55% to get past the Knights, which leaves the Knights very much alive at 45%. The single biggest reason for the lean is the ratings gap: Warriors sit at 1664 ELO, Knights at 1507. That's 157 points of daylight, and it's doing most of the heavy lifting here.

Dig into the positional numbers and it's not a clean sweep for the home side. Knights actually lead the forward pack, 1106 to 1036, and they lead the backline by a mile, 1141 to 827. Warriors claw it back through the halves, 1170 to 1077, and at hooker, 994 to 886. Five of the seven factors go the Warriors' way regardless: Team ELO, Halves Control, Referee Tendency, Hooker & Ruck and Recent Win Rate. The Knights get Forward Pack and Venue Advantage. So the model's backing spine and structure over go-forward and outside class, which is a genuine call, not a formality.

History backs the pick up. Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, and the last time these two met, in Round 26 last season, Warriors won 46-32 at Go Media Stadium. At home specifically, Warriors have gone 6 from 8 against the Knights. They've also won the last four meetings straight, and the Knights haven't beaten them since 2024. This is the third time they've met in 2026 alone, Warriors already up 38-12 and 46-32 in the first two.

Form lines tell a similar story with a twist. Warriors are 18-7 this season, scoring 138 and conceding 114 across their last four, with a 10-3 home record and two wins after trailing at half-time. Knights are 15-10, scoring 112 and conceding 126 in their last four, 7-6 away, one half-time comeback win all year. Warriors' last five reads WWWWL, Knights' reads WWLLW. Warriors are averaging 35.6 a game across that stretch to the Knights' 28.4, and conceding 24 to the Knights' 30. Warriors have the best attack in the competition at 30.3 points a game and the second-best defence at 17.4 conceded, with nine wins by 20-plus. Knights aren't easybeats either, they've posted 20-plus in seven straight games and have five blowout wins of their own, but they've also copped four losses of 20-plus.

There's ladder weight on this one too. Warriors finished the regular season 2nd at 18-6, Knights 7th at 14-10. Genuine top-eight stakes, not a dead rubber.

James Fisher-Harris leads the Warriors out, Kalyn Ponga the Knights. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak plays his 250th NRL game on Sunday, while Fletcher Sharpe and Leka Halasima both bring up their 50th. Both sides come in on an even 8 days' rest, so no edge there. Ashley Klein has the whistle, and he blows plenty, 13.9 penalties a game across 421 career games. Home teams win 61% under him, though neither side has exactly dominated his games, Warriors 37% from 35, Knights 40% from 45.

The model's margin sits at Warriors by 1.9, with a combined total near 42. That's well under the market's total line of 44.5, and a fair way inside the market's handicap of Warriors -5.5, which tells you the model isn't buying a blowout here.

On price, Warriors sit at $1.52 in the market, which the model reckons is about 7.8% too short given its 55% read. The model's own picks, where it doesn't price the market itself, lean Knights on the 5.5-point line at $1.91, Warriors to win by the model's own margin at $2.55, and the Under 44.5 at $1.91.

Plenty here for the Knights to hang their hopes on, that forward pack edge and a backline that outrates the Warriors by a fair chunk. But the model's leaning on class in the middle and a hooker edge to see the Warriors through, tight, not comfortable.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 46-32 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWL · 138 for, 114 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-3 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WLLW · 112 for, 126 against |
| Knights away | 7-6 this season |
| Market | Warriors $1.52 · Knights $2.57 |
| Line | Warriors -5.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $3.25 — model probability 64.3% (edge +33.6%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.25 — model probability 66.8% (edge +22.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $2.15 — model probability 63.4% (edge +16.9%)
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad @ $2.00 — model probability 64.0% (edge +14.0%)
- Taine Tuaupiki @ $2.45 — model probability 50.9% (edge +10.1%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.10 — model probability 40.0% (edge +7.8%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Greg Marzhew @ $10.00 — model probability 9.6% (edge -0.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $9.50 — model probability 8.8% (edge -1.8%)
- Chanel Harris-Tavita @ $14.00 — model probability 4.8% (edge -2.3%)
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 4.5% (edge -3.2%)
- Bradman Best @ $15.00 — model probability 2.4% (edge -4.3%)

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 421 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 13W–22L | 37% |
| Knights | 18W–27L | 40% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Warriors 13W–22L (37%) and Knights 18W–27L (40%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 35.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.0pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1678.6m | Run Metres | 1561.8m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 8.2 |
| 293.6 | Tackles | 340.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 L | 35.6 |
| Knights | R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · FW1 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Warriors | 46 – 32 | Knights |
| 2026 | R3 | Knights | 12 – 38 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R20 | Knights | 15 – 20 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R8 | Warriors | 26 – 12 | Knights |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.12 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.24/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.12/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 8 | 14 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 168m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 71 · 53 | 75 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 658m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 21.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.5% | 75.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 23 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 485m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.73) +12% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.41) +10% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.28) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Eden Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 7 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% Great value +10.1% |
| 2 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 12 in 16g | 9/10g (4·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 64% Great value +14.0% |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 29% | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/12g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 35% Great value +4.7% |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 57% Fair odds |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 64% Great value +33.6%; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% Market priced |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/15g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 8 in 25g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 21 in 24g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 63% Great value +16.9%; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 9% Market priced |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 7/24g | 0/0g | 18% | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 2% Market priced |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 24g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 67% Great value +22.4%; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 12 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 40% Great value +7.8%; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 4% Market priced |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 0/1g | 4% | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 4 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 19% | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 11% | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1664 · Knights 1507 · ELO difference: 157 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1036 | 1106 | Knights +70 |
| Backs | 827 | 1141 | Knights +314 |
| Halves | 1170 | 1077 | Warriors +93 |
| Hooker | 994 | 886 | Warriors +108 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 26.7% | Warriors |
| 2 | Halves Control | 21.6% | Warriors |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 8.7% | Knights |
| 4 | Referee Tendency | 7.7% | Warriors |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.2% | Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 5.9% | Knights |
| 7 | Recent Win Rate | 4.1% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warriors predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Warriors win, around 22–20 (total ~42 — under the 44.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Greg Marzhew (9.6%), then Dominic Young (8.8%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 44.5 line (model projects 42). Referee Ashley Klein's games average 43.4.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 10:59 UTC (latest tip update)