# Warriors v Knights — NRL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 10 – 12 Knights

_Knights lay siege to a gallant Warriors._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 55% / Knights 45% · Eden Park, Auckland · Sun, 20 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Leka Halasima (13' 1st), Leka Halasima (69' 1st) · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (29' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (45' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 55% | Lost |
| Knights | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2026, 08:59 pm · Last updated: 20 Sept 2026, 06:03 pm_

Warriors 10–12 Knights in NRL Semi Finals at Eden Park, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Warriors as favourites for their NRL Semi Final against the Knights, predicting a 55% chance of victory and a narrow 1.9-point margin. The Knights instead secured a 12-10 win at Eden Park, defying the pre-match read in a low-scoring game. The combined total of 22 points also came in 20 points under the predicted 42, highlighting a tighter defensive contest than anticipated.

The match was an arm wrestle from the outset, with both teams locked at 6-6 by half-time. The Warriors were the first to score, with Leka Halasima crossing in the 13th minute. Taine Tuaupiki converted, giving the Warriors a 6-0 lead. This was their biggest lead of the game. The Knights responded in the 29th minute through Fletcher Sharpe, with Sandon Smith adding the extras to level the scores.

The pivotal period of the game saw the Knights score 12 unanswered points between the 29th and 46th minutes. Dominic Young's try early in the second half, converted by Smith, gave the Knights a 12-6 lead in the 45th minute. This was enough to secure the win, despite Halasima grabbing his second for the Warriors in the 69th minute. The conversion was missed by Tuaupiki, leaving the Warriors two points short.

Looking at the stats, the Warriors largely dominated possession and yardage, but could not convert it to points. They held 51% possession to the Knights' 49%, ran for 1,958 metres to the Knights’ 1,660, and gained 571 post-contact metres compared to 496. The Warriors were also the more elusive side, making 66 tackle breaks to the Knights' 54 and offloading 14 times against the Knights' 4, indicating a willingness to play expansively. Their positional strength in the halves, rated at 1170 against the Knights' 1077, likely contributed to this attacking flair.

Despite this, the Knights’ defence held firm when it counted. They missed 66 tackles, more than the Warriors’ 54, but their effective tackle percentage was 80.5% against the Warriors' 85.8%. The Knights’ kicking game was also a key factor, gaining 649 kick metres to the Warriors' 479, which helped control territory in a tight contest. This aligns with the model's pre-match assessment of a stronger Knights backline, rated 1141 to the Warriors' 827, which would have contributed to their ability to manage the field.

The Warriors were the cleaner side with the ball, completing 78% of their sets to the Knights' 73% and making 14 errors to the Knights' 17. However, the Knights were more disciplined on the penalty count, conceding 3 penalties to the Warriors' 5. In the first half, the Knights conceded no penalties to the Warriors' three. While the Knights conceded three penalties in the second half, the early advantage in discipline likely eased pressure.

The model’s prediction for a tight margin proved accurate, with the actual difference just two points, against an expected 1.9. The Knights' ability to capitalise on their scoring opportunities, particularly their 12-point run, decided the match against the Warriors, despite the latter's statistical dominance in several key attacking metrics. The under 44.5 total call was correct. The Knights covered the 5.5-point line.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Knights | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,958** | Run metres | 1,660 |
| **571** | Post-contact metres | 496 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **66** | Tackle breaks | 54 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| **85.8%** | Effective tackle % | 80.5% |
| **54** | Missed tackles | 66 |
| **14** | Errors | 17 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 479 | Kick metres | **649** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 55% prediction for Warriors, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 1.9 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The game's 22 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 42. The model went 4/17 on this match. Knights covered the 5.5-point line. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (421 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 21 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Knights prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 28' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 44' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +22 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.52 (edge -7.8%) — model probability 55.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 2 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 55%, but Knights stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 157 ELO points clear, 1664 to 1507. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Warriors by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 12-10 in 2026 Round 29.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.52 and Knights $2.57, with the line at Warriors -5.5 and the total at 44.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 7 · Knights 3 |
| Last meeting | Knights 12-10 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Market | Warriors $1.52 · Knights $2.57 |
| Line | Warriors -5.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 421 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 13W–22L | 37% |
| Knights | 18W–27L | 40% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Warriors 13W–22L (37%) and Knights 18W–27L (40%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 35.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 30.0pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | -1.6pts |
| 1678.6m | Run Metres | 1561.8m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 8.2 |
| 293.6 | Tackles | 340.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 L | 35.6 |
| Knights | R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · FW1 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Warriors | 46 – 32 | Knights | Warriors 74% ✓ |
| 2026 | R3 | Knights | 12 – 38 | Warriors | Warriors 58% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Knights | 15 – 20 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R8 | Warriors | 26 – 12 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Knights | 14 – 8 | Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.4 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.12 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1.16 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.24/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.4/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.12/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.4/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 8 | 14 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 168m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 71 · 53 | 75 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 658m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 21.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.5% | 75.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 23 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 594m/g | 485m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.72) +14% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.41) +10% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.28) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Eden Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 7 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 12 in 16g | 9/10g (4·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 64% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 6 in 22g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | RES | 5 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 10/12g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | INT | 16 in 19g | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 3 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/15g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 8 in 25g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | RES | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 16g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 21 in 24g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 7/24g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 2% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 24g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0) | 9/9g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 12 in 23g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 4 in 21g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | RES | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1664 · Knights 1507 · ELO difference: 157 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1036 | 1106 | Knights +70 |
| Backs | 827 | 1141 | Knights +314 |
| Halves | 1170 | 1077 | Warriors +93 |
| Hooker | 994 | 886 | Warriors +108 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 26.7% | Warriors |
| 2 | Halves Control | 21.6% | Warriors |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 8.7% | Knights |
| 4 | Referee Tendency | 7.7% | Warriors |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.2% | Warriors |
| 6 | Venue Advantage | 5.9% | Knights |
| 7 | Recent Win Rate | 4.1% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Warriors predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-20 08:03 UTC (latest tip update)