# Roosters v Sharks — NRL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 46 – 10 Sharks

_Roosters run riot over Sharks._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 63% / Sharks 37% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 19 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Lindsay Collins (2' 1st), Daniel Tupou (11' Tipped ⚡), Daly Cherry-Evans (28'), Connor Watson (51'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (63' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (66' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (69' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (72' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Sione Katoa (22' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (24' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 63% | Won |
| Sharks | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 36 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2026, 08:59 pm · Last updated: 19 Sept 2026, 09:44 pm_

Roosters 46–10 Sharks in NRL Semi Finals at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model expected a tight contest at Allianz Stadium, with the Roosters favoured to win by 5.9 points and a combined total of 40. Instead they ran out 46-10 winners over the Sharks, a 36-point margin that blew the prediction apart. The game's 56 total points landed 16 higher than forecast.

The Roosters started strongly, with Lindsay Collins opening the scoring in the 2nd minute. Daniel Tupou followed at the 11-minute mark, putting the Roosters up 10-0. This early passage delivered 12 unanswered points. The Sharks then found some rhythm. Sione Katoa crossed at 22 minutes, and Ronaldo Mulitalo added another try at 24 minutes, bringing the score to 12-8. For a brief period, it looked like the close game the model had projected.

Daly Cherry-Evans scored for the Roosters in the 28th minute, pushing the lead to 16-10. At half-time, the Roosters led 18-10. This put the Roosters ahead, consistent with the model's win probability of 63%. However, the second half saw the Roosters pull away decisively. Connor Watson scored at 51 minutes, followed by Mark Nawaqanitawase at 63 minutes, after an unsuccessful Sharks captain's challenge. Robert Toia added another at 66 minutes, and James Tedesco at 69 minutes, extending the lead to 40-10.

Mark Nawaqanitawase scored his second try at the 72-minute mark, bringing the final score to 46-10. From the 28th minute to the 73rd minute, the Roosters scored 34 unanswered points. This second-half explosion was where the model's margin prediction truly broke down. The Roosters' biggest lead was 36 points in the 73rd minute.

The stat sheet shows where the Roosters found their points. They made nine line breaks to the Sharks' three, and broke 50 tackles compared to the Sharks' 19. This ability to create and exploit gaps was crucial. The Roosters also gained significantly more yardage, with 1,626 run metres to the Sharks' 1,408. They also had more post-contact metres, with 485 compared to the Sharks' 432. Their effective tackle percentage of 90.4% was also notably higher than the Sharks' 84.6%, contributing to 50 missed tackles for the Sharks against the Roosters' 20.

The Sharks had a marginally better completion rate at 75% to the Roosters' 79%, and committed one fewer error, nine to ten. They also conceded fewer penalties, four to the Roosters' three. However, they could not contain the Roosters' attack. The Roosters’ positional strengths, particularly in the backs, with a rating of 993 compared to the Sharks' 879, and halves, with a rating of 1333 compared to the Sharks' 1251, likely played a part in this offensive dominance, allowing them to capitalise on opportunities.

While the model correctly picked the Roosters to win, the sheer scale of the Roosters’ second-half performance highlights the unpredictable nature of knockout rugby league. The 36-point margin was a stark deviation from the expected close contest.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 18 | 28 | 46 |
| Sharks | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,626** | Run metres | 1,408 |
| **485** | Post-contact metres | 432 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **50** | Tackle breaks | 19 |
| 9 | Offloads | **10** |
| **90.4%** | Effective tackle % | 84.6% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 50 |
| 10 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 422 | Kick metres | **439** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.9 but the actual margin was 36 points. The game's 56 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 40. Roosters led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 36. The model went 7/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (310 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 71% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Lindsay Collins (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 10' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 21' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 23' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 51' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 62' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 28-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 65' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 34-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 40-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 44-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.44 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 62.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 63%, but Sharks stay live at 37%. Form leans Sharks' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Backline Quality, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The margin model has Roosters by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 40. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 46-10 in 2026 Round 29.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.44 and Sharks $2.81, with the line at Roosters -7.5 and the total at 45.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 6 · Sharks 4 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 46-10 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters at home | 10-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Market | Roosters $1.44 · Sharks $2.81 |
| Line | Roosters -7.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.6 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Adam Gee** — 310 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 28W–15L | 65% |
| Sharks | 30W–12L | 71% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 6-point edge: 30W–12L (71%) vs Roosters's 28W–15L (65%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Sharks get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.7. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1592.6m | Run Metres | 1678.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 396.4 | Tackles | 329.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L | 16.0 |
| Sharks | R24 L · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Roosters | 27 – 8 | Sharks | Roosters 64% ✓ |
| 2026 | R6 | Sharks | 22 – 34 | Roosters | Roosters 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | FW1 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2025 | R20 | Sharks | 31 – 18 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.96 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 6th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 7th) | 1.28/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.48/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.96/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.92/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 13 | 22 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 54 | 68 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 716m/g | 725m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 21 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 552m/g | 476m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.28) +21% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·3·2·0·0) | 8/19g | 28/55g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 16/18g | 81/106g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 15g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/15g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 13 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 8/19g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 16 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 17/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 72' |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/17g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 7/24g | 5/33g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/35g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 5/39g | 10% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/49g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 7/54g | 8% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Angus Crichton | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/34g | 18% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 11 in 25g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 18 in 19g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·2·2·1·2) | 4/10g | 3/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| 3 | Riley Jones | RES | 1 in 8g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 2% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 23g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 12 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 9/10g | 3/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 9 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | RES | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1557 · Sharks 1556 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1159 | 1129 | Roosters +30 |
| Backs | 993 | 879 | Roosters +114 |
| Halves | 1333 | 1251 | Roosters +82 |
| Hooker | 1017 | 915 | Roosters +102 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 27.5% | — |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 22.7% | Roosters |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 15.5% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.7% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 4.5% | Roosters |
| 6 | Recent Win Rate | 2.2% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Roosters predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-19 11:44 UTC (latest tip update)