# Roosters v Sharks — NRL Semi Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Roosters v Sharks?

Alphr's NRL model rates Roosters a 63% favourite over Sharks in Semi Finals. Predicted result: Roosters by 6 in a low-scoring game (40 total, under the 45.5 line). **Confidence: Medium.** Roosters lead on Backline Quality, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Billy Smith leads at +26.8% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Roosters v Sharks
Sat, 19 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Semi Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.44 (edge -3.2%) — model probability 62.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 40

### Match Preview

**Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Sept 2026, 08:59 pm_

Roosters meet Sharks in NRL Semi Finals at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. The model makes Roosters the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model's got Roosters at 63%, Sharks at 37%. That's not a squeak on class, mind you: the ELO gap is one point, 1557 to 1556, as close as it gets. So the lean isn't coming from the ratings, it's coming from the shape of the two sides: Backline Quality, Forward Pack, Halves Control and Hooker & Ruck all tip Roosters' way. Four out of six factors. That's the case, not the club badge.

Look at the positional numbers and it's not close in the spine. Roosters' halves rate 1333 against the Sharks' 1251. Hooker and ruck, 1017 to 915. Forwards 1159 to 1129, backs 993 to 879. Every position group favours Roosters. If the model's right to trust those over recent results, this is a mismatch up the middle.

History backs the favourite too. Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, and smacked the Sharks 27-8 at this same ground back in round 16. Hosting the Sharks in their last 8 goes 5-3 Roosters' way. This is actually the third dance between these two in 2026: Roosters won round 6 by 12, then round 16 by 19. The Sharks haven't beaten them all year.

But form tells a different story, and it's the one factor working against the pick: Recent Win Rate favours Sharks. Roosters have lost four straight and are 16-9 for the season; their last four games they've put up just 68 points and shipped 120. Sharks are 15-10, scoring 94 and conceding 100 over their last four, a much tighter ledger. Average margin over the last five: Sharks at minus 2, Roosters at minus 9.2. The Sharks are also out-running them, 1678 metres to 1592.6, though the Roosters are grinding out more tackles, 396.4 to 329.6. Last five, oldest to newest: Roosters WLLLL, Sharks LWLLW.

There's plenty on the table too. This is a straight top-eight semi: Roosters went in 4th at 16-8, Sharks 5th at 14-10. And when Roosters lead at half-time this season, they're 11 from 11. Whatever's gone wrong the last month, it's not happening from in front.

Tedesco leads the Roosters, Brailey leads the Sharks, and Nicho Hynes brings up his 150th game for the club, which is worth a mention regardless of how Saturday goes. Rest is basically even, six days for Roosters against seven for the Sharks. Adam Gee has the whistle, 310 games into his career, averaging 15.6 penalties a game, so expect it to get chippy. Home teams win 57% under him, and specifically the Roosters have won 65% of the 43 games he's reffed them in, against 71% for the Sharks in 42. Make of that what you will.

The model's margin sits at Roosters by 5.9, with the total tipped around 40. That's a fair way inside the market's own line of Roosters -7.5, and well under the total line of 45.5, which is why the model's pick there is the under.

On price, Roosters sit at $1.44 in the market, and the model rates that about 3.2% shorter than it should be, a small overlay against the favourite rather than a reason to back it blind. The Sharks are out at $2.81. For the line, the model likes Sharks with the 7.5 at $1.91, though it doesn't price that market itself so there's no edge claimed. Same story on the margin, Roosters at $2.55, and the total, under 45.5 at $1.91: both are the model's pick with no stated edge.

Here's the honest bit. Roosters have dropped their last three at this ground, they've been beaten by 20 or more four times this season, and their form line reads ugly. If the Sharks are going to cause it, it's their tighter margins and better away record, 6-6, doing the work, plus the fact they've been the more dangerous side lately with six wins by 20-plus of their own. But the model's looking past the slump and backing what it sees in the halves and up front. Roosters by just under 6, and a low-scoring one. Line-ball enough that nobody should be shocked either way

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 6 · Sharks 4 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 27-8 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLL · 68 for, 120 against |
| Roosters at home | 8-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WLLW · 94 for, 100 against |
| Sharks away | 6-6 this season |
| Market | Roosters $1.44 · Sharks $2.81 |
| Line | Roosters -7.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.6 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $2.90 — model probability 61.3% (edge +26.8%)
- Daniel Tupou @ $1.94 — model probability 64.7% (edge +13.2%)
- Robert Toia @ $2.40 — model probability 53.9% (edge +12.3%)
- William Kennedy @ $3.40 — model probability 38.3% (edge +8.9%)
- James Tedesco @ $2.50 — model probability 48.7% (edge +8.7%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $2.35 — model probability 48.6% (edge +6.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Billy Smith @ $13.00 — model probability 7.9% (edge +0.2%)
- William Kennedy @ $14.00 — model probability 4.6% (edge -2.5%)
- Robert Toia @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Ronaldo Mulitalo @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Riley Jones @ $20.00 — model probability 1.8% (edge -3.2%)

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Adam Gee** — 310 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 28W–15L | 65% |
| Sharks | 30W–12L | 71% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Sharks hold a 6-point edge: 30W–12L (71%) vs Roosters's 28W–15L (65%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Sharks get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.8. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 25.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1592.6m | Run Metres | 1678.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 396.4 | Tackles | 329.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L | 16.0 |
| Sharks | R24 L · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Roosters | 27 – 8 | Sharks |
| 2026 | R6 | Sharks | 22 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2025 | FW1 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R20 | Sharks | 31 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (1.96 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 6th there (1.48 conceded/game). Key man: Kennedy, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.28/g (def 7th) | 1.28/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.28/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.48/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.96/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.92/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.56/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 13 | 22 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 78 · 54 | 68 · 59 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 716m/g | 724m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17/g | 15.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 78.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 18 | 21 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 552m/g | 475m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.73) -4%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.28) +21% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.42/g (lg 0.41) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·3·2·0·0) | 8/19g | 28/55g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 49% Great value +8.7% |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 13 in 15g | 9/10g (0·2·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0) | 16/18g | 81/106g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 65% Great value +13.2% |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 15g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·1·2·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/15g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 61% Great value +26.8%; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% Fair odds |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 13 in 21g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 8/19g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 54% Great value +12.3%; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 16 in 20g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 17/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 51% Market priced |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 8 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/17g | 22% | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 7/24g | 5/33g | 14% | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/35g | 2% | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/10g | 10% | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 5/39g | 10% | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/20g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/24g | 18% | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/49g | 10% | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 7/54g | 8% | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/26g | 2% | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/37g | 8% | — |
| 17 | Angus Crichton | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/34g | 18% | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 11 in 25g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 38% Great value +8.9%; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% Market priced |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 18 in 19g | 12/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·2·2·1·2) | 4/10g | 3/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 48% Fair odds |
| 3 | Riley Jones | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 2% Market priced |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 12 in 23g | 3/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 40% | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 12 in 16g | 7/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 9/10g | 3/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 49% Great value +6.1%; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 9 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/3g | 30% | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 8 in 21g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 1/4g | 28% | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/8g | 16% | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 16% | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 3 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/4g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 8 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 22% | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 1 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 2/11g | 10% | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 6 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/4g | 20% | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/3g | 6% | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1557 · Sharks 1556 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1159 | 1129 | Roosters +30 |
| Backs | 993 | 879 | Roosters +114 |
| Halves | 1333 | 1251 | Roosters +82 |
| Hooker | 1017 | 915 | Roosters +102 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 27.5% | — |
| 2 | Backline Quality | 22.7% | Roosters |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 15.5% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.7% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 4.5% | Roosters |
| 6 | Recent Win Rate | 2.2% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Roosters predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 40 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Roosters win, around 23–17 (total ~40 — under the 45.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Billy Smith (7.9%), then Robert Toia (6.4%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 45.5 line (model projects 40). Referee Adam Gee's games average 43.1.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-15 10:59 UTC (latest tip update)