# Titans v Raiders — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 12 – 28 Raiders

_Raiders ransack Titans._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 54% / Raiders 46% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sat, 02 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Phillip Sami (27' Tipped ⚡), Jojo Fifita (66' Tipped ⚡) · Raiders: Simi Sasagi (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Simi Sasagi (13' 1st Tipped 🎯), Kaeo Weekes (21' Tipped ⚡), Savelio Tamale (50' Tipped ⚡), Sebastian Kris (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 54% | Lost |
| Raiders | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 2 May 2026, 04:51 pm_

Titans 12–28 Raiders in NRL Round 9 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen points in twenty minutes, and the game was already gone. Simi Sasagi crossed twice inside the first twelve minutes, Kaeo Weekes added a third at the 20 minute mark, and by the time the Titans found the tryline through Phillip Sami six minutes later, the Raiders were up 16-6. That burst was the match. Everything after just confirmed it.

Final score: Raiders 28, Titans 12, and the half-time margin of 16-6 tells you the damage was already done well before the break. The Titans clawed one back through Jojo Fifita in the 65th minute to trim it to 22-10, but Sebastian Kris got the last word in the 79th, and the scoreboard never suggested this one was going the other way.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye test saw in that opening quarter hour. Canberra ran 2,082 metres to the Titans' 1,622, and 724 of theirs came after contact, a full 117 more than the home side managed. That's a forward pack doing its job, and it lines up with the pre-match ratings that had the Raiders forwards at 930 to the Titans' 839. Add in a 37 to 29 edge in tackle busts and 6 line breaks to 4, and Canberra had the Titans defence bending all night, missing 37 tackles to the visitors' 29.

Discipline mattered too. The Raiders completed at 83% against the Titans' 68%, coughing the ball up only 9 times to 14. Fourteen errors is a lot to hand a side with that much go-forward, and it meant the Titans spent long stretches without the ball to make anything of their own possession, despite holding a 737 to 703 edge in kick metres, one of the few columns they actually won.

Titans did have their moments. Phillip Sami's try dragged the margin back to single figures before half-time, and Fifita's finish with 15 to go at least kept the contest honest on the scoreboard. But two tries from a side conceding 8 penalties and missing that many tackles was never going to be enough against a team that scored five.

The form line into this one had the Raiders as the worse side over their last five, averaging 22 points and conceding 31, against a Titans outfit that had actually been winning games by an average of 2.8. On the day, none of that showed. Canberra's halves and hooker ratings, both comfortably ahead of the Titans' on paper, translated straight onto the field in the shape of that first-half spree.

Alphr's model had Titans as 54% favourites and picked them to win by 2.2, with a combined total of 43. The Raiders won by 16, and the model's own numbers call that one a clear miss on the head-to-head and the margin both. The total wasn't far off though, with 40 points scored against a projected 43, and the under 53.5 call landed. Seven from seventeen on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Raiders | 16 | 12 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 68% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,622 | Run metres | **2,082** |
| 607 | Post-contact metres | **724** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **8** | Offloads | 7 |
| **89.6%** | Effective tackle % | 89.0% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **737** | Kick metres | 703 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 54% prediction for Titans, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40, within 3 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (315 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Raiders have a 57% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 12' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 20' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 26' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 49' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 65' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 10-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 12-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.90 (edge +3.6%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Titans -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Titans 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Titans by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Titans are the call at 54%, but Raiders stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 60 ELO points clear, 1429 to 1370, so the model is backing Titans against the ratings gap.

On paper Raiders shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Titans, which says Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Titans by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Titans, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Raiders have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 9.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Titans 3, Raiders 3.

On the ladder it's Titans 13th against Raiders 14th.

The market has Titans favourites, Titans $1.90 and Raiders $1.93, with the line at Titans -0.5 and the total at 53.5.

Titans come in fresher, 14 days between games against 8.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 19.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 1 · Raiders 9 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 28-12 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 13th · Raiders 14th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Titans $1.90 · Raiders $1.93 |
| Line | Titans -0.5 · total 53.5 |
| Rest gap | Titans 14d · Raiders 8d |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 19.3 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Grant Atkins** — 315 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 10W–21L | 32% |
| Raiders | 27W–20L | 57% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Raiders have won 27 of 47 games (57%), significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 31 (32%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Titans get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 31.0pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.0pts |
| 1734.6m | Run Metres | 1679.4m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 335.4 | Tackles | 362.2 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L | 24.4 |
| Raiders | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R11 | Raiders | 40 – 24 | Titans |
| 2025 | R7 | Titans | 20 – 30 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R6 | Raiders | 21 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R18 | Raiders | 26 – 22 | Titans |
| 2022 | R20 | Titans | 24 – 36 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 7th-ranked left edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Hau, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 9th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Timoko, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.14/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 9th) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.29/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 12th) | 1.25/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 177m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2/g | 4.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 19 | 16 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 721m/g | 786m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 21.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 76% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 499m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.73) +34% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.73/g (lg 0.43) +70% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 43% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/5g | 13/29g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 66' |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 28/66g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 4/12g | 34/66g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 59% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| 6 | Lachlan Ilias | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 5g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 2/5g | 17/38g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Kurtis Morrin | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/29g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 7/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 14/46g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 5/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Oliver Pascoe | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/75g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/33g | 2% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | 5/8 | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 21' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 3/4g | 24% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/7g | 1/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Simi Sasagi | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 13' |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Chevy Stewart | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Daine Laurie | FB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Roddy | 2R | 0 in 5g | 2/6g (2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1429 vs 1370), but the market favours Titans (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1370 · Raiders 1429 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 839 | 930 | Raiders +90 |
| Backs | 852 | 931 | Raiders +79 |
| Halves | 859 | 923 | Raiders +63 |
| Hooker | 839 | 926 | Raiders +87 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Titans predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 06:51 UTC (latest tip update)