NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

GLD

Titans

CAN

Raiders

CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SATURDAY 2 MAY, 3:00 PM

AI Win Probability

54%TitansFavourite

Titans

54%

Raiders

46%

✨

AI Match Overview

Titans hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 46%. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Titans counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1429 vs 1370). The margin model predicts Titans by 2.2 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Titans to Win @1.90

Edge

+3.6%

Line / Spread

Titans -0.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Titans 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Titans	R3L R4W R5L R6W R7L older → newer	24.4
Raiders	R4L R5L R6W R7W R8L	22.0

Avg Conceded

21.6

Titans

31.0

Raiders

Avg Margin

2.8

Titans

-9.0

Raiders

Run Metres

1716

Titans

1699

Raiders

Line Breaks

4.6

Titans

4.8

Raiders

Referee Indicator

Favours Raiders

Grant Atkins

315 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)

Titans

10W – 21L

32%

Raiders

27W – 20L

57%

When Grant Atkins officiates, Raiders have won 27 of 47 games (57%) — significantly stronger than Titans's 10 from 31 (32%).

Avg Total

43.1 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

14.4

Sin Bins / Gm

0.29

SB Away %

56%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.8

vs Away Teams7.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Titans

+0.0

Raiders

-0.2

Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 5-0

May 2025GLD 24 - 40 CAN

Apr 2025GLD 20 - 30 CAN

Apr 2024GLD 20 - 21 CAN

Jul 2023GLD 22 - 26 CAN

Jul 2022GLD 24 - 36 CAN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1429 vs 1370), but the market favours Titans (@1.90).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD

1370Overall1429

CAN

ELO difference: -60 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

839Forwards930

CAN +90

852Backs931

CAN +79

859Halves923

CAN +63

839Hooker926

CAN +87

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD

Stat

CAN

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

24.4pts

Avg Score

22.0pts

21.6pts

Avg Conceded

31.0pts

2.8pts

Avg Margin

-9.0pts

1715.8m

Run Metres

1699.2m

4.6

Line Breaks

4.8

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Raiders

Forward Pack12.0%

Raiders

Backline Quality10.0%

Raiders

Halves Control9.0%

Raiders

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Titans

Venue Advantage7.0%

Titans

Model Confidence

54%

Titans predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +2.2

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 1.442+ 33%

$2.25

+24.8% edge

Model

69%

Market

44%

Confidence

69%

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 1.932+ 17%

$2.50

+11.9% edge

Model

52%

Market

40%

Confidence

52%

Jojo FifitaTitans

backFair 1.782+ 20%

$2.15

+9.8% edge

Model

56%

Market

47%

Confidence

56%

Sialetili FaeamaniTitans

backFair 1.712+ 22%

$1.98

+8.0% edge

Model

59%

Market

51%

Confidence

59%

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 1.622+ 25%

$1.84

+7.5% edge

Model

62%

Market

54%

Confidence

62%

Simi SasagiRaiders

forwardFair 2.252+ 12%

$2.50

+4.5% edge

Model

45%

Market

40%

Confidence

45%

Savelio TamaleRaiders

backFair 1.662+ 24%

$1.77

+3.8% edge

Model

60%

Market

56%

Confidence

60%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 1.692+ 23%

$1.79

+3.3% edge

Model

59%

Market

56%

Confidence

59%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 4.712+ 25%

$10.00

+11.2% edge

Model

21%

Market

10%

Confidence

21%

Savelio TamaleRaiders

backFair 4.902+ 24%

$10.00

+10.4% edge

Model

20%

Market

10%

Confidence

20%

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 5.642+ 33%

$13.00

+10.1% edge

Model

18%

Market

Confidence

18%

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 6.192+ 17%

$14.00

+9.0% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

Simi SasagiRaiders

forwardFair 7.702+ 12%

$13.00

+5.3% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%