# Sharks v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 52 – 10 Wests Tigers

_Sharks put Wests Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 18 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 57% / Wests Tigers 43% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 03 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Teig Wilton (5' 1st), KL Iro (20' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Colquhoun (33'), KL Iro (48' Tipped ⚡), Teig Wilton (56' 1st), Teig Wilton (65' 1st), Samuel Stonestreet (69'), Nicho Hynes (74'), KL Iro (77' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Adam Doueihi (9'), Taylan May (15' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 57% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.0 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 3 May 2026, 06:02 pm_

Sharks 52–10 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 9 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten minutes into the second half, Wests Tigers were still within touch at 18-10. Sixty-six minutes later, they weren't within cooee of it. That's the story of this one: a game that was live at the break and dead by full time, Sharks running in five tries without reply after the resumption to close it out 52-10 at Ocean Protect Stadium.

It didn't start that way. Taylan May's try in the 15th minute had Wests Tigers up 8-6, the only lead they'd hold all match. Teig Wilton and Adam Doueihi had traded tries inside the opening ten minutes, and for a quarter of an hour this looked like a contest. Then KL Iro crossed in the 19th to level it at 10-10, Jesse Colquhoun added another in the 33rd, and Sharks went to the break in front 18-10. The platform was set. What followed after halftime was just the demolition.

Iro again in the 47th, Wilton twice more in the 55th and 65th, Samuel Stonestreet in the 68th, Nicho Hynes in the 74th and Iro's third in the 76th. Five tries, zero reply, 34 unanswered points stacked on top of an 18-10 lead. Wilton finished with a hat-trick, Iro matched him with three of his own, and between them they accounted for six of Sharks' nine tries. That's not a team clicking late, that's a team that simply had more gears than the opposition and used every one of them.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the eye saw. Sharks ran 2,112 metres to 1,266 and racked up 770 post-contact metres to Wests Tigers' 371, the kind of gap that comes from repeated go-forward the visitors just couldn't match. Sharks also broke the line five times to three, held 63% of possession, and completed at 80% against a scrappier 61% from Wests Tigers. Thirteen errors for Sharks against seventeen for the visitors, and 618 kick metres to 404, meant Sharks dictated both ball control and territory for long stretches.

Curiously, the tackling numbers actually favour Wests Tigers on paper: 91.6% effective tackling to Sharks' 85.8%, and fewer missed tackles, 29 to 25. It didn't matter. When you're conceding that much ground before contact even starts, no amount of tackle efficiency papers over it, and Wests Tigers found that out the hard way across 80 minutes.

Form-wise this was meant to be closer than it was. Wests Tigers arrived on a 4-1 last-five record against Sharks' 2-3, averaging more points and conceding barely half of what Sharks were leaking. The ratings had Wests Tigers rated higher across forwards, backs, halves and hooker. None of that showed up in Sharks territory on the day.

Alphr's model backed Sharks at 57% and got the winner right, but the margin read was nowhere close, tipping a 7-point win against what turned into a 42-point demolition, with the total landing at 62 points against a projected 46. A correct pick on the result, a big miss on the how much. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 18 | 34 | 52 |
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| **63%** | Possession | 37% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 61% |
| **2,112** | Run metres | 1,266 |
| **770** | Post-contact metres | 371 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **29** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **91.6%** |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 29 |
| **13** | Errors | 17 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| **618** | Kick metres | 404 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 62 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 46. Sharks led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (102 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 64% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 15' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — Jesse Colquhoun (Sharks) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 47' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 55' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 28-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 65' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 34-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 68' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 38-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 74' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 44-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 50-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.52 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 57.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sharks are the call at 57%, but Wests Tigers stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Wests Tigers sit 36 ELO points clear, 1533 to 1497, so the model is backing Sharks against the ratings gap. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sharks by 7.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Sharks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 52-10 in 2026 Round 9.

Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sharks 9th against Wests Tigers 3rd.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.52 and Wests Tigers $2.54, with the line at Sharks -7.5 and the total at 52.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 13.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 7 · Wests Tigers 3 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 52-10 |
| Sharks last 4 | WLLW · 94 for, 100 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 9th · Wests Tigers 3rd |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.52 · Wests Tigers $2.54 |
| Line | Sharks -7.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 13.1 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 102 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 9W–5L | 64% |
| Wests Tigers | 1W–6L | 14% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 9 of 14 games (64%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for Wests Tigers).

Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 27.2pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.2pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 1608.8m | Run Metres | 1902.8m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 348.8 | Tackles | 337.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R8 L | 27.2 |
| Wests Tigers | R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 20 – 18 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R19 | Sharks | 58 – 6 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R3 | Wests Tigers | 32 – 6 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R19 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 36 | Sharks |
| 2022 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 36 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 4th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 15th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.14/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 8th) | 2.29/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.71/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 8 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 3.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 187m/g | 279m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 22 | 19 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 728m/g | 757m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 6 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 435m/g | 599m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.43) +44% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 1.26) -5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 5/7g | 3/3g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Mawene Hiroti | WG | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 3 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 48' 77' |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 40% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 5' 56' 65' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunia Turuva | FB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jeral Skelton | RES | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 16% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 9 | Tristan Hope | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jock Madden | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1533 vs 1497), but the market favours Sharks (@1.52). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1497 · Wests Tigers 1533 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 999 | 1001 | Wests Tigers +2 |
| Backs | 984 | 996 | Wests Tigers +11 |
| Halves | 992 | 993 | Wests Tigers +2 |
| Hooker | 1025 | 1008 | Sharks +17 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Sharks predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-03 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)