AI Win Probability
Sharks
57%
Wests Tigers
43%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 43%. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sharks counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Wests Tigers carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1533 vs 1497). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 7.0 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.52
Edge
-5.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +7.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | R3L R4W R5W R6L R8L older → newer | 21.6 |
Wests Tigers | R4W R5W R6W R7L R8W | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Sharks
19.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.8
Sharks
7.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1580
Sharks
1889
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
5.8
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksTodd Smith
102 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 9 of 14 games (64%) — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for Wests Tigers).
Avg Total
46.0 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sharks get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Wests Tigers's -0.4.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1533 vs 1497), but the market favours Sharks (@1.52).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Sharks predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +7.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.