Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.0 but the actual margin was 42 points. The game's 62 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 46. Sharks led 18–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 3/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (102 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Sharks have a 64% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
57%
Wests Tigers
43%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 43%. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sharks counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Wests Tigers carry a 36-point ELO rating advantage (1533 vs 1497). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 7.0 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.52
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | R3L R4W R5W R6L R8L older → newer | 21.6 |
Wests Tigers | R4W R5W R6W R7L R8W | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Sharks
19.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.8
Sharks
7.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1580
Sharks
1889
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.8
Sharks
5.8
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksTodd Smith
102 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sharks have won 9 of 14 games (64%) — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for Wests Tigers).
Avg Total
46.0 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sharks get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Wests Tigers's -0.4.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1533 vs 1497), but the market favours Sharks (@1.52).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Sharks predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +7.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.