# Roosters v Broncos — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 38 – 24 Broncos

_Roosters strut past Broncos._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 61% / Broncos 39% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 02 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Daly Cherry-Evans (3' 1st), Daniel Tupou (18' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Savala (33' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (39'), Nat Butcher (43'), Reece Robson (75') · Broncos: Reece Walsh (51' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Willison (58'), Patrick Carrigan (61'), Jordan Riki (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 61% | Won |
| Broncos | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.2 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 2 May 2026, 10:36 pm_

Roosters 38–24 Broncos in NRL Round 9 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different games plan, one truck-sized gap in execution. The Broncos wanted the ball dry and the boot doing the work, kicking for 483 metres against the Roosters' 319 and coughing up the footy just 9 times to 12. The Roosters didn't care about tidy, they wanted it wet and moving forward, offloading eight times to three and running for 1,508 metres to the Broncos' 1,024. Final score: Roosters 38, Broncos 24.

The Roosters' version of footy worked a lot better in the first half. Daly Cherry-Evans opened it inside two minutes, and by the 42nd minute the Roosters had put on five tries through Cherry-Evans, Daniel Tupou, Hugo Savala, Sam Walker and Nat Butcher to lead 28-0. Whatever patience the Broncos had planned for went out the window fast, because by half-time it was 24-0 and the game was already lopsided.

Then the Broncos actually turned up. Reece Walsh crossed at 50, Xavier Willison at 58, Patrick Carrigan at 60 and Jordan Riki at 65, and suddenly a 28-point margin was down to eight at 30-22. Four tries in fifteen minutes is a proper response, not a token one. Kotoni Staggs copped a sin bin at 70 right as the momentum was building, and that was about the worst moment for it. Reece Robson's try at 74 pushed it back out and the Roosters saw it home.

The stat sheet tells you why the Broncos never quite got there despite the second-half surge. Post-contact metres were 568 to 319, nearly double, and that's the Roosters bending the line back every carry while the Broncos got stood up. Line breaks were level at five apiece and tackle breaks close too, 15 to 14, so the Broncos weren't short on threat. They just couldn't turn it into territory the way the Roosters could, and conceding nine penalties to five meant they were giving the Roosters extra cracks at exactly the wrong time.

Completion rate barely separated the two sides, 80% to 79%, and the Broncos actually held the error count advantage, nine to twelve. That fits the form line coming in, Broncos averaging 8.6 errors a game across their last five against the Roosters' 12.8. Clean footy just doesn't mean much when the other m

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 24 | 14 | 38 |
| Broncos | 0 | 24 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 79% |
| **1,508** | Run metres | 1,024 |
| **568** | Post-contact metres | 319 |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| **15** | Tackle breaks | 14 |
| **8** | Offloads | 3 |
| **92.9%** | Effective tackle % | 92.7% |
| **14** | Missed tackles | 15 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 319 | Kick metres | **483** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 7.2 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 62 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 47. The model went 5/17 on this match. Roosters covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (292 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 64% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 39' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 42' Try — Nat Butcher (Roosters) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 50' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 30-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 30-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 60' Try — Patrick Carrigan (Broncos) — 30-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 65' Try — Jordan Riki (Broncos) — 30-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Sin Bin — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 30-22 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 74' Try — Reece Robson (Roosters) — 36-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.56 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 61.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 61%, but Broncos stay live at 39%.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Roosters by 7.2, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 17.

Roosters have lost 4 straight; Roosters have leaked 120 in their last four. Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 5, Broncos 3.

On the ladder it's Roosters 5th against Broncos 7th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.56 and Broncos $2.44, with the line at Roosters -4.5 and the total at 51.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 8 · Broncos 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 24-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLL · 68 for, 120 against |
| Roosters at home | 8-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 5th · Broncos 7th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.56 · Broncos $2.44 |
| Line | Roosters -4.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.5 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 292 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 25W–14L | 64% |
| Broncos | 17W–21L | 45% |

Avg total: 42.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 25 of 39 games (64%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 17 from 38 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Roosters get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.5. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 34.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.2pts |
| 10.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.0pts |
| 1865.0m | Run Metres | 1678.0m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 309.6 | Tackles | 351.4 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R3 L · R4 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 34.2 |
| Broncos | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Broncos | 18 – 24 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R6 | Broncos | 16 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R1 | Roosters | 14 – 50 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R9 | Broncos | 18 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R1 | Roosters | 20 – 10 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.71 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 2nd there (0.75 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 13th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.71/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 2.71/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.75/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 4 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 138m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 22 | 19 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 778m/g | 670m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.9/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.6/g | 2.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 77.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 576m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.1/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.73) +23%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/18g | 28/52g | 46% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2) | 6/22g | 75/102g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 4/11g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 7 in 7g | 15/10g (4·3·1·0·1·0·2·0·2·2) | 0/2g | 15/14g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/19g | 4/26g | 26% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/6g | 10/23g | 24% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/28g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 1/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 4/34g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/14g | 9/33g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 3/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 7/43g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 7/46g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 3/31g | 12% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | RES | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 3% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/28g | 5/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Ben Talty | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Gosiewski | PR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 2% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 14 | Josh Rogers | RES | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aublix Tawha | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1597 · Broncos 1595 · ELO difference: 2 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1092 | 1103 | Broncos +11 |
| Backs | 1114 | 1119 | Broncos +6 |
| Halves | 1131 | 1115 | Roosters +16 |
| Hooker | 1059 | 1088 | Broncos +29 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Roosters predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-02 12:36 UTC (latest tip update)