NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

SYD

Roosters

BRI

Broncos

ALLIANZ STADIUM, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 2 MAY, 7:35 PM

AI Win Probability

61%RoostersFavourite

Roosters

61%

Broncos

39%

✨

AI Match Overview

Roosters hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model predicts Roosters by 7.2 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Roosters to Win @1.56

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Roosters -4.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Roosters 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Roosters	R3L R4W R6W R7W R8W older → newer	27.0
Broncos	R4W R5W R6L R7W R8W	24.4

Avg Conceded

24.0

Roosters

18.6

Broncos

Avg Margin

3.0

Roosters

5.8

Broncos

Run Metres

1835

Roosters

1707

Broncos

Line Breaks

4.8

Roosters

4.2

Broncos

Referee Indicator

Favours Roosters

Adam Gee

292 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)

Roosters

25W – 14L

64%

Broncos

17W – 21L

45%

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 25 of 39 games (64%) — significantly stronger than Broncos's 17 from 38 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

13.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.24

SB Away %

69%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.3

vs Away Teams7.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Roosters

-1.4

Broncos

-1.5

Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Roosters lead 3-2

Apr 2025SYD 26 - 16 BRI

Mar 2025SYD 14 - 50 BRI

May 2024SYD 40 - 18 BRI

Mar 2024SYD 20 - 10 BRI

Aug 2023SYD 10 - 32 BRI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SYD

1597Overall1595

BRI

ELO difference: +2 in favour of Roosters

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1092Forwards1103

BRI +11

1114Backs1119

Even

1131Halves1115

SYD +16

1059Hooker1088

BRI +29

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SYD

Stat

BRI

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

27.0pts

Avg Score

24.4pts

24.0pts

Avg Conceded

18.6pts

3.0pts

Avg Margin

5.8pts

1834.6m

Run Metres

1707.4m

4.8

Line Breaks

4.2

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

—

Forward Pack12.0%

—

Backline Quality10.0%

—

Halves Control9.0%

—

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Roosters

Venue Advantage7.0%

Roosters

Model Confidence

61%

Roosters predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +7.2

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 1.642+ 24%

$2.30

+17.4% edge

Model

61%

Market

43%

Confidence

61%

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 1.462+ 32%

$1.92

+16.2% edge

Model

68%

Market

52%

Confidence

68%

Robert ToiaRoosters

backFair 1.792+ 20%

$2.45

+14.9% edge

Model

56%

Market

41%

Confidence

56%

Ezra MamBroncos

halfFair 2.352+ 11%

$2.85

+7.4% edge

Model

43%

Market

35%

Confidence

43%

Mark NawaqanitawaseRoosters

backFair 1.422+ 35%

$1.56

+6.5% edge

Model

71%

Market

64%

Confidence

71%

Daniel TupouRoosters

backFair 1.602+ 26%

$1.68

+2.9% edge

Model

62%

Market

60%

Confidence

62%

Josiah KarapaniBroncos

backFair 1.922+ 17%

$1.92

+0.0% edge

Model

52%

Market

52%

Confidence

52%

Hugo SavalaRoosters

backFair 3.222+ 5%

$2.50

-8.9% edge

Model

31%

Market

40%

Confidence

31%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 5.222+ 32%

$10.00

+9.2% edge

Model

19%

Market

10%

Confidence

19%

Kotoni StaggsBroncos

backFair 6.392+ 24%

$13.00

+8.0% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

Mark NawaqanitawaseRoosters

backFair 5.142+ 35%

$8.00

+7.0% edge

Model

19%

Market

13%

Confidence

19%

Robert ToiaRoosters

backFair 7.712+ 20%

$13.00

+5.3% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Daniel TupouRoosters

backFair 6.422+ 26%

$9.00

+4.5% edge

Model

16%

Market

11%

Confidence

16%