NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

PEN

Panthers

MAN

Sea Eagles

COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 3 MAY, 6:15 PM

AI Win Probability

67%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

67%

Sea Eagles

33%

✨

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 157-point ELO rating advantage (1700 vs 1543). The margin model predicts Panthers by 13.3 points with a combined total of 50.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.25

Edge

-8.5%

Line / Spread

Panthers -12.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Panthers 13+ @3.20

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Panthers	R4W R5W R6L R7W R8W older → newer	36.2
Sea Eagles	R4L R5W R6W R7W R8W	33.4

Avg Conceded

19.2

Panthers

18.6

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

17.0

Panthers

14.8

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1793

Panthers

1794

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

6.4

Panthers

5.0

Sea Eagles

Referee Indicator

Favours Panthers

Wyatt Raymond

44 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)

Panthers

2W – 1L

67%

Sea Eagles

2W – 2L

50%

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Panthers have won 2 of 3 games (67%) — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 2 from 4 (50%). Games average 50.3 pts — above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Panthers).

Avg Total

50.3 pts

Home Win %

61%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

9.8

Sin Bins / Gm

0.43

SB Away %

53%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5

vs Away Teams4.9

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Panthers

+0.7

Sea Eagles

+0.3

Panthers get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Sea Eagles's +0.3.

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 3-2

Apr 2025PEN 10 - 26 MAN

Jun 2024PEN 32 - 22 MAN

Apr 2024PEN 18 - 32 MAN

Aug 2023PEN 24 - 12 MAN

Apr 2023PEN 44 - 12 MAN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN

1700Overall1543

MAN

ELO difference: +157 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1204Forwards1064

PEN +140

1225Backs1018

PEN +207

1199Halves1082

PEN +118

1213Hooker1035

PEN +178

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN

Stat

MAN

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

36.2pts

Avg Score

33.4pts

19.2pts

Avg Conceded

18.6pts

17.0pts

Avg Margin

14.8pts

1792.8m

Run Metres

1794.4m

6.4

Line Breaks

5.0

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Panthers

Forward Pack12.0%

Panthers

Backline Quality10.0%

Panthers

Halves Control9.0%

Panthers

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Panthers

Venue Advantage7.0%

Panthers

Model Confidence

67%

Panthers predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 50 · Line: +13.3

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Thomas JenkinsPanthers

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.38

+14.0% edge

Model

86%

Market

72%

Confidence

86%

Dylan EdwardsPanthers

backFair 1.432+ 34%

$1.76

+12.9% edge

Model

70%

Market

57%

Confidence

70%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 2.382+ 10%

$3.35

+12.1% edge

Model

42%

Market

30%

Confidence

42%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 1.712+ 22%

$2.07

+10.1% edge

Model

58%

Market

48%

Confidence

58%

Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles

backFair 2.802+ 7%

$2.45

-5.1% edge

Model

36%

Market

41%

Confidence

36%

Casey McLeanPanthers

backFair 2.532+ 9%

$1.98

-11.0% edge

Model

40%

Market

51%

Confidence

40%

Paul AlamotiPanthers

backFair 3.912+ 4%

$2.70

-11.5% edge

Model

26%

Market

37%

Confidence

26%

Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles

forwardFair 4.592+ 3%

$2.95

-12.1% edge

Model

22%

Market

34%

Confidence

22%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 4.532+ 22%

$12.00

+13.8% edge

Model

22%

Market

Confidence

22%

Thomas JenkinsPanthers

backFair 3.512+ 59%

$6.50

+13.1% edge

Model

29%

Market

15%

Confidence

29%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 7.292+ 10%

$19.00

+8.4% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Dylan EdwardsPanthers

backFair 5.872+ 34%

$9.00

+5.9% edge

Model

17%

Market

11%

Confidence

17%

Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles

backFair 8.992+ 7%

$13.00

+3.4% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%