NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

NEW

Knights

SOU

Rabbitohs

MCDONALD JONES STADIUM, NEWCASTLE • SUNDAY 3 MAY, 2:00 PM

AI Win Probability

55%RabbitohsFavourite

Knights

45%

Rabbitohs

55%

✨

AI Match Overview

Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Rabbitohs carry a 123-point ELO rating advantage (1528 vs 1405). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 1.6 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Rabbitohs to Win @1.73

Edge

-0.2%

Line / Spread

Rabbitohs -1.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Knights	R4W R5W R6L R7L R8L older → newer	22.8
Rabbitohs	R3W R5W R6L R7W R8W	26.8

Avg Conceded

29.2

Knights

22.8

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

-6.4

Knights

4.0

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1557

Knights

1674

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

4.4

Knights

5.4

Rabbitohs

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Liam Kennedy

63 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)

Knights

5W – 5L

50%

Rabbitohs

5W – 6L

45%

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy — Knights 5W–5L (50%) and Rabbitohs 5W–6L (45%).

Avg Total

45.8 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.2

Sin Bins / Gm

0.41

SB Away %

58%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.2

vs Away Teams6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Knights

-1.1

Rabbitohs

+0.5

Penalises away teams more — 5.2 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -1.1.

H2H History (Last 5)Knights lead 3-2

May 2025NEW 30 - 4 SOU

Sep 2024NEW 36 - 16 SOU

Sep 2023NEW 29 - 10 SOU

Jul 2022NEW 28 - 40 SOU

Jun 2021NEW 10 - 24 SOU

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NEW

1405Overall1528

SOU

ELO difference: -123 in favour of Rabbitohs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

944Forwards1020

SOU +76

873Backs1068

SOU +195

886Halves1056

SOU +170

891Hooker1066

SOU +176

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NEW

Stat

SOU

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

22.8pts

Avg Score

26.8pts

29.2pts

Avg Conceded

22.8pts

-6.4pts

Avg Margin

4.0pts

1557.4m

Run Metres

1673.6m

4.4

Line Breaks

5.4

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Rabbitohs

Forward Pack12.0%

Rabbitohs

Backline Quality10.0%

Rabbitohs

Halves Control9.0%

Rabbitohs

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Rabbitohs

Referee Tendency7.0%

Knights

Venue Advantage7.0%

Knights

Model Confidence

55%

Rabbitohs predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: -1.6

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 1.422+ 34%

$2.90

+35.8% edge

Model

70%

Market

34%

Confidence

70%

Latrell MitchellRabbitohs

backFair 1.202+ 53%

$1.83

+28.6% edge

Model

83%

Market

55%

Confidence

83%

Matthew DuftyRabbitohs

backFair 1.642+ 24%

$2.45

+20.2% edge

Model

61%

Market

41%

Confidence

61%

Dominic YoungKnights

backFair 1.462+ 32%

$1.76

+11.7% edge

Model

69%

Market

57%

Confidence

69%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 1.252+ 48%

$1.43

+10.0% edge

Model

80%

Market

70%

Confidence

80%

Campbell GrahamRabbitohs

backFair 1.912+ 17%

$1.91

+0.1% edge

Model

52%

Market

52%

Confidence

52%

Greg MarzhewKnights

backFair 2.022+ 15%

$1.91

-2.8% edge

Model

50%

Market

52%

Confidence

50%

Fletcher SharpeKnights

halfFair 2.542+ 9%

$2.25

-5.1% edge

Model

39%

Market

44%

Confidence

39%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Latrell MitchellRabbitohs

backFair 4.842+ 53%

$10.00

+10.7% edge

Model

21%

Market

10%

Confidence

21%

Dominic YoungKnights

backFair 5.042+ 32%

$9.00

+8.7% edge

Model

20%

Market

11%

Confidence

20%

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 7.132+ 34%

$14.00

+6.9% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 5.382+ 48%

$6.50

+3.2% edge

Model

19%

Market

15%

Confidence

19%

Matthew DuftyRabbitohs

backFair 9.182+ 24%

$13.00

+3.2% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%