# Knights v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 42 – 38 Rabbitohs

_Knights lay siege to Rabbitohs in a tight one._

Half time: 28 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 45% / Rabbitohs 55% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 03 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Trey Mooney (6' 1st), Dylan Lucas (10'), Greg Marzhew (21' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (24' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Lucas (30'), Greg Marzhew (62' Tipped ⚡), Trey Mooney (74' 1st) · Rabbitohs: Sean Keppie (27'), Alex Johnston (32' Tipped ⚡), Cody Walker (43'), Tallis Duncan (55' Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (58' Tipped ⚡), Cody Walker (66'), Latrell Mitchell (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 55% | Lost |
| Knights | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.6 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 3 May 2026, 03:54 pm_

Knights 42–38 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 9 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Knights led 28-0 midway through the first half and looked to be cruising by the 23-minute mark. By half-time that had eased slightly to 28-10, and from there the margin only ever tightened.

Trey Mooney opened the scoring inside five minutes, Dylan Lucas made it 10-0 by the 9th, and Greg Marzhew crossed twice either side of the 20-minute mark to push it out to 22-0. Four tries without reply in the opening quarter of an hour, the sort of start that usually settles a game early. Sean Keppie got the Rabbitohs on the board at the 26th minute, Lucas answered straight back for his second at 29', and Alex Johnston's try just before the break brought it to 28-10 at half-time. Still an 18-point buffer, still very much the Knights' game on paper.

The second half told a different story. Cody Walker crossed early to make it 28-14, Tallis Duncan's try at 54' brought it to 30-20, and Johnston's second at 57' had the margin down to four, 30-26. Marzhew's third of the night, at 62', restored some breathing room at 34-26, but Walker's second three minutes later cut it straight back to 36-30. Latrell Mitchell levelled the scores at 36-all with ten minutes left on the clock. Mooney's second try, at 73', put the Knights in front for good at 40-38, and they held that lead through to full-time for the 42-38 result.

The stat sheet explains why the game swung the way it did in both halves. Knights held 52% of possession and were the tidier side with ball in hand, coughing it up 12 times to 13, though the Rabbitohs actually completed at a higher rate, 73% to 67%. Where the Knights won the game was in the collision. They broke the line nine times to five and forced 30 tackle breaks to 21, numbers that line up neatly with four different Knights scorers finding space across the 80 minutes. On the other side of the ball, the Rabbitohs missed 30 tackles to the Knights' 21, and that gap in defensive effort is where Mooney, Lucas and Marzhew kept finding room to move.

Souths did generate more out of what they had. Their post-contact metres, 416 to 393, show a side that kept fighting for extra metres after the initial hit, and their overall run metres were close, 1,416 to the Knights' 1,492. It just wasn't enough to offset the missed tackles and the tries those let through.

None of it fits the pre-match picture. Souths came in rated well clear of the Knights across every position group: forwards 1020 to 944, backs 1068 to 873, halves 1056 to 886, hooker 1066 to 891. Their form backed that up too, four wins from their last five compared to the Knights' two, and an average of 32.8 points a game against 22.8. Alphr's model had the Rabbitohs as 55% favourites, tipping them by 1.6 points on a total near 41. Instead the Knights won by four in an 80-point shootout, 39 points above the predicted total, and the model's ledger on this one reads 4 from 17. Some days the numbers just don't turn up.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 28 | 14 | 42 |
| Rabbitohs | 10 | 28 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 67% | Completion rate | **73%** |
| **1,492** | Run metres | 1,416 |
| 393 | Post-contact metres | **416** |
| **9** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **30** | Tackle breaks | 21 |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.0% |
| **21** | Missed tackles | 30 |
| **12** | Errors | 13 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **405** | Kick metres | 398 |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 55% prediction for Rabbitohs, a notable result. The predicted margin of 1.6 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 80 points came in 39 points higher than the predicted 41. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (63 career games). The combined score of 80 points was 34 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 46.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 9' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 23' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 26' Try — Sean Keppie (Rabbitohs) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 29' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 31' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 42' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 28-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 54' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 30-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 57' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 30-26 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 62' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 34-26 · win-prob swing +19 pts
- 65' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 36-30 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 36-36 · win-prob swing -22 pts
- 73' Try — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 40-38 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.73 (edge -0.2%) — model probability 54.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 2 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 55%, but Knights stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 123 ELO points clear, 1528 to 1405. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 1.6, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 20-10 in 2026 Round 28.

Knights have leaked 126 in their last four. Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 11th against Rabbitohs 4th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Knights $2.11 and Rabbitohs $1.73, with the line at Knights +1.5 and the total at 52.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 13.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 6 · Rabbitohs 4 |
| Last meeting | Knights 20-10 |
| Knights last 4 | WLLW · 112 for, 126 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 11th · Rabbitohs 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Knights $2.11 · Rabbitohs $1.73 |
| Line | Knights +1.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 13.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Liam Kennedy** — 63 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 5W–5L | 50% |
| Rabbitohs | 5W–6L | 45% |

Avg total: 45.8 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Knights 5W–5L (50%) and Rabbitohs 5W–6L (45%).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -7.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 1523.4m | Run Metres | 1790.6m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 365.0 | Tackles | 299.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 22.8 |
| Rabbitohs | R3 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 20 | Knights |
| 2026 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 24 | Knights |
| 2025 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 30 | Knights |
| 2024 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2023 | R25 | Knights | 29 – 10 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 5th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Mooney, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.71 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 7th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Mitchell, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.57/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.75/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.75/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.43/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 7th) | 2.71/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 10 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 199m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 22 | 30 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 663m/g | 715m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.5/g | 16.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 4.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.2% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 489m/g | 621m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 89.1% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.49/g (lg 0.27) +81% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.43) +23%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.22) +59% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 31/59g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·1·2·0·3·2·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 28/33g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 26/111g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 20/47g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 4/5g | 24/33g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 50% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 24' 62' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/2g | 14/13g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/81g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 8/57g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 16% | — | 🏉 6' 74' |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/28g | 22% | — | 🏉 10' 30' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/46g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | RES | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/17g | 10/56g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/19g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Fletcher Hunt | RES | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·3·0) | 0/0g | 4/10g | 47% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 1/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 9 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·2) | 15/10g | 6/5g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' 58' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 10 in 7g | 10/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·4·0) | 2/9g | 0/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 83% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 71' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/20g | 3/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/9g | 4/6g | 18% | — | 🏉 43' 66' |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Euan Aitken | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1405 · Rabbitohs 1528 · ELO difference: 123 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 944 | 1020 | Rabbitohs +76 |
| Backs | 873 | 1068 | Rabbitohs +195 |
| Halves | 886 | 1056 | Rabbitohs +170 |
| Hooker | 891 | 1066 | Rabbitohs +176 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-03 05:54 UTC (latest tip update)