# Eels v Warriors — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 14 – 36 Warriors

_Warriors march past Eels._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 46% / Warriors 54% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 02 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Ronald Volkman (4' 1st), Will Penisini (44' Tipped ⚡), Ronald Volkman (60' 1st) · Warriors: Leka Halasima (14' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (18' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (24' Tipped ⚡), Jackson Ford (64'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (70' Tipped ⚡), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 54% | Won |
| Eels | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 3 May 2026, 12:33 pm_

Eels 14–36 Warriors in NRL Round 9 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors won 36-14 at CommBank Stadium, and on paper that reads like a stroll. It wasn't, not for most of it. Eels were within four points as late as the 59th minute, 14-18, after Ronald Volkman's second try. The blowout was a last-twenty-minutes job, not a first-to-last one.

The early exchanges had the Warriors doing the leading without doing the running away. Volkman opened the scoring in the 4th minute, then Warriors reeled off three straight through Leka Halasima, Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak to lead 14-6 by the 24th. Will Penisini's try just before half-time made it 16-10 at the break on the scoreboard the fact sheet gives as 6-16, and Volkman's second in the 59th kept the margin at a single converted try. Then Jackson Ford, Khan-Pereira again and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck scored in an 13-minute stretch from the 63rd to close it out at 36-14. Three tries in thirteen minutes is how a contest becomes a rout.

The stat sheet explains why the Warriors always had that finish in them. They completed at 86% to the Eels' 70%, coughed the ball up nine times to thirteen, and conceded just three penalties to eight. That's the sort of discipline gap that lets a team keep playing its own game while the other side is stuck defending repeat sets.

Up front and through the middle, Warriors had the edge the ratings suggested they would. A forward pack rated at 1106 against 933 showed up as 1,812 running metres to 1,498 and 590 post

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| Warriors | 16 | 20 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 70% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| 1,498 | Run metres | **1,812** |
| 514 | Post-contact metres | **590** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **38** |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 86.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 38 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| 13 | Errors | **9** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 549 | Kick metres | **702** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.6 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. Warriors led 6–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 7/17 on this match. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (364 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 8 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 13' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 24' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 44' Try — Will Penisini (Eels) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 59' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 14-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 63' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 14-22 · win-prob swing -16 pts
- 69' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 14-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 76' Try — Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Warriors) — 14-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.44 (edge -11.8%) — model probability 54.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 54%, but Eels stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 177 ELO points clear, 1575 to 1398. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 4.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 36-14 in 2026 Round 9.

Warriors have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Eels 15th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Eels $2.80 and Warriors $1.44, with the line at Eels +6.5 and the total at 53.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 7 · Warriors 3 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 36-14 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWL · 138 for, 114 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 15th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Eels $2.80 · Warriors $1.44 |
| Line | Eels +6.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.0 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 364 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14W–23L | 38% |
| Warriors | 9W–15L | 38% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Eels 14W–23L (38%) and Warriors 9W–15L (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 64% of his 183 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 35.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -13.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1515.8m | Run Metres | 1601.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 352.4 | Tackles | 325.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W · R8 L | 21.2 |
| Warriors | R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R26 | Warriors | 22 – 26 | Eels |
| 2024 | R22 | Warriors | 20 – 30 | Eels |
| 2023 | R19 | Eels | 10 – 46 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R18 | Eels | 28 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2021 | R10 | Warriors | 18 – 34 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.75 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (2.38 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.13/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.38/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2.75/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.38/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 7 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 105m/g | 168m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 27 | 22 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 656m/g | 605m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 15.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 76.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 10 | 12 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 478m/g | 591m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 88.3% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.43) +19% · Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.73) +18% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.26) -6%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.18/g (lg 0.1) +80% · Centres 1.05/g (lg 0.73) +44% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 14% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 1 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/13g | 2/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 18/47g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 15/34g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 4 in 7g | 10/10g (2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 12/14g | 20/25g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 20% | — | 🏉 4' 60' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 1 in 8g | 4/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 20/66g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/17g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 11/88g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/22g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Saxon Pryke | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toni Mataele | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Walker | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/10g | 4/22g | 10% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·3·2·1·1) | 4/13g | 1/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/13g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 33% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 4g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 4 in 4g | 10/10g (2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·2) | 8/4g | 4/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' 70' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 16% | — | 🏉 64' |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Laban | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1398 · Warriors 1575 · ELO difference: 177 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 933 | 1106 | Warriors +172 |
| Backs | 905 | 1055 | Warriors +150 |
| Halves | 868 | 1107 | Warriors +239 |
| Hooker | 920 | 1044 | Warriors +124 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Warriors predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-03 02:33 UTC (latest tip update)