AI Win Probability
Eels
46%
Warriors
54%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 177-point ELO rating advantage (1575 vs 1398). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Warriors by 4.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.44
Edge
-11.8%
Line / Spread
Eels +6.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | R4L R5L R6L R7W R8L older → newer | 21.2 |
Warriors | R4L R5L R6W R7W R8W | 24.4 |
Avg Conceded
35.0
Eels
24.0
Warriors
Avg Margin
-13.8
Eels
0.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1591
Eels
1625
Warriors
Line Breaks
4.0
Eels
5.2
Warriors
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
364 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton — Eels 14W–23L (38%) and Warriors 9W–15L (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's -1.9. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Warriors predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -4.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.