NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

DOL

Dolphins

MEL

Storm

SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • FRIDAY 1 MAY, 8:00 PM

AI Win Probability

63%DolphinsFavourite

Dolphins

63%

Storm

37%

✨

AI Match Overview

Dolphins hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Storm are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Storm. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 7.6 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Dolphins to Win @1.62

Edge

+3.8%

Line / Spread

Dolphins -3.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Dolphins 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Dolphins	R3W R4L R5L R7L R8L older → newer	21.6
Storm	R4L R5L R6L R7L R8L	16.8

Avg Conceded

25.0

Dolphins

32.0

Storm

Avg Margin

-3.4

Dolphins

-15.2

Storm

Run Metres

1878

Dolphins

1501

Storm

Line Breaks

4.2

Dolphins

4.6

Storm

Referee Indicator

Favours Storm

Ashley Klein

383 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)

Dolphins

2W – 5L

29%

Storm

40W – 24L

63%

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 64 games (63%) — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 7 (29%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Dolphins).

Avg Total

43.5 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

8.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.16

SB Away %

42%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.3

vs Away Teams4.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Dolphins

+0.0

Storm

-0.4

Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game — well below average. He lets the game flow.

H2H History (Last 4)Storm lead 3-1

Apr 2025DOL 42 - 22 MEL

Sep 2024DOL 6 - 48 MEL

Jun 2024DOL 24 - 30 MEL

May 2023DOL 16 - 24 MEL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL

1424Overall1422

MEL

ELO difference: +2 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

910Forwards916

Even

960Backs936

DOL +24

958Halves916

DOL +42

925Hooker920

Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL

Stat

MEL

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

0.0

21.6pts

Avg Score

16.8pts

25.0pts

Avg Conceded

32.0pts

-3.4pts

Avg Margin

-15.2pts

1877.6m

Run Metres

1500.8m

4.2

Line Breaks

4.6

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

—

Forward Pack12.0%

—

Backline Quality10.0%

—

Halves Control9.0%

—

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Dolphins

Referee Tendency7.0%

Dolphins

Venue Advantage7.0%

Dolphins

Model Confidence

63%

Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +7.6

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 1.332+ 40%

$1.76

+18.2% edge

Model

75%

Market

57%

Confidence

75%

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowDolphins

backFair 1.322+ 42%

$1.51

+9.6% edge

Model

76%

Market

66%

Confidence

76%

Jamayne IsaakoDolphins

backFair 1.512+ 29%

$1.76

+9.3% edge

Model

66%

Market

57%

Confidence

66%

Nick MeaneyStorm

backFair 2.372+ 11%

$3.00

+8.9% edge

Model

42%

Market

33%

Confidence

42%

Herbie FarnworthDolphins

backFair 1.672+ 23%

$1.92

+7.9% edge

Model

60%

Market

52%

Confidence

60%

Jack HowarthStorm

backFair 3.402+ 5%

$3.40

+0.0% edge

Model

29%

Market

29%

Confidence

29%

Selwyn CobboDolphins

backFair 2.282+ 11%

$1.81

-11.4% edge

Model

44%

Market

55%

Confidence

44%

Hugo PeelStorm

backFair 2.992+ 6%

$1.85

-20.7% edge

Model

33%

Market

54%

Confidence

33%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 3.852+ 40%

$10.00

+16.0% edge

Model

26%

Market

10%

Confidence

26%

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowDolphins

backFair 3.702+ 42%

$7.50

+13.7% edge

Model

27%

Market

13%

Confidence

27%

Jamayne IsaakoDolphins

backFair 4.862+ 29%

$9.50

+10.1% edge

Model

21%

Market

11%

Confidence

21%

Herbie FarnworthDolphins

backFair 5.752+ 23%

$10.00

+7.4% edge

Model

17%

Market

10%

Confidence

17%

Nick MeaneyStorm

backFair 9.712+ 11%

$15.00

+3.6% edge

Model

10%

Market

Confidence

10%