# Dolphins v Storm — NRL Round 9 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 28 – 10 Storm

_Dolphins hit back to make a splash against Storm._

Half time: 4 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 63% / Storm 37% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 01 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Selwyn Cobbo (38' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (59' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (64'), Jack Bostock (73'), Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (79') · Storm: Tyran Wishart (11' 1st), Sualauvi Faalogo (26')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 63% | Won |
| Storm | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.6 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 29 Apr 2026, 10:32 am · Last updated: 1 May 2026, 10:28 pm_

Dolphins 28–10 Storm in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm had this one for the better part of an hour. Tyran Wishart scored inside 11 minutes, Sualauvi Faalogo added a second in the 26th, and by half-time Storm led 10-4 at Suncorp Stadium. Dolphins were chasing a two-score gap against a side that hadn't won any of its last five. Didn't matter how the ledger read coming in, Storm looked the business early.

Then the picture changed completely. Dolphins went a man down in the 45th minute when Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was sin binned with the scoreboard still reading 4-10, about as awkward a spot as a team can find itself in. They didn't blink. Jamayne Isaako got them within two in the 58th, Jack Bostock struck in the 64th to put Dolphins in front for the first time, and by the time Bostock crossed again in the 73rd the margin was safe. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki's try in the 78th just put a bow on it. Final score 28-10, and Storm didn't add a point after halftime.

The stat sheet explains why the door swung open. Dolphins ran for 2,064 metres to Storm's 1,392, and post-contact they cleaned up 614 metres to 433. That's a forward pack getting quick play-the-balls and backs with room to move, and it lines up with the pre-match numbers: Dolphins rated ahead in backs (960 to 936) and halves (958 to 916), even with a near-identical rating up front. Eight line breaks to two says the same thing from a different angle.

Defensively, Storm simply couldn't hold on to blokes. They missed 29 tackles to Dolphins' 20, and Dolphins racked up 29 tackle breaks of their own. Effective tackle percentage was close, 89.6 to 90.2, but that stat flatters Storm, because the missed-tackle count is the one that actually decided field position and who kept crossing the line in the second half.

Dolphins were also the tidier side with the football, 11 errors to 13, completing at 71 per cent same as Storm, but doing more damage with the ball in hand. Possession sat at 58-42 their way too. Storm's one clear edge was in offloads, 11 to 8, but you can't offload your way out of a defensive performance like that.

Bostock's double stands out from an individual scoring column, and Finefeuiaki closing it out late fits a game that got away from Storm once the tries started coming in bunches after the break.

Storm's night was built on the first half largely, Wishart and Faalogo doing the damage early, and a kicking game that actually out-gained Dolphins, 648 metres to 591. None of it mattered once the go-forward dried up after the break and the visitors couldn't buy a tackle.

Alphr's model had Dolphins as 63 per cent favourites, with a predicted margin of 7.6 and a combined total of 46. The actual margin blew out to 18, well past that number, but the model's under call on the total held up, and the pick to back Dolphins on the 3.5-point line landed too. Storm's form line coming in, five losses on the trot and an average concession of 38 points, made them underdogs for good reason. This one just took an hour to prove it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 4 | 24 | 28 |
| Storm | 10 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| 71% | Completion rate | 71% |
| **2,064** | Run metres | 1,392 |
| **614** | Post-contact metres | 433 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **29** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| 89.6% | Effective tackle % | **90.2%** |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 29 |
| **11** | Errors | 13 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 591 | Kick metres | **648** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 7.6 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Dolphins trailed 4–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–10. The model went 5/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 3.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (383 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Dolphins bucked the trend, Storm historically win 63% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Dolphins's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Tyran Wishart (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 26' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 38' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Sin Bin — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 58' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 8-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 64' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 14-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 73' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 78' Try — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 26-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.62 (edge +3.8%) — model probability 62.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 63%, but Storm stay live at 37%. Form leans Dolphins' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Storm.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Dolphins by 7.6, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 28-10 in 2026 Round 9.

Dolphins have won 8 straight. Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 12th against Storm 16th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.62 and Storm $2.31, with the line at Dolphins -3.5 and the total at 53.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Dolphins 2 · Storm 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 28-10 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 12th · Storm 16th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.62 · Storm $2.31 |
| Line | Dolphins -3.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 383 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Storm | 40W–24L | 63% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 64 games (63%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 7 (29%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Dolphins).

Storm get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Dolphins's -1.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 26.2pts | Avg Conceded | 38.0pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | -22.8pts |
| 1822.0m | Run Metres | 1370.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 377.6 | Tackles | 351.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R7 L · R8 L | 21.6 |
| Storm | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Storm lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R7 | Dolphins | 42 – 22 | Storm |
| 2024 | R25 | Storm | 48 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R16 | Dolphins | 24 – 30 | Storm |
| 2023 | R12 | Dolphins | 16 – 24 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 12th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 11th) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.86/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 8th) | 1.75/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.86/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th) | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 4 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 200m/g | 247m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 23 | 25 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 866m/g | 663m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.9/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 76.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 4 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 473m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.3/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.1% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.41/g (lg 1.26) +12% · Centres 0.66/g (lg 0.72) -8% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.1) -20%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 6 in 7g | 10/10g (0·1·3·1·1·1·0·2·1·0) | 1/5g | 27/32g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 5/10g | 33/77g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Trai Fuller | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/12g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/8g | 25/64g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 28/51g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Bradley Schneider | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 7/30g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 14% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/58g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/40g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Oryn Keeley | RES | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 12% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (0·1·2·3·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 3/6g | 56% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·4·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 7/7g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 4/16g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Hugo Peel | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/9g | 16% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/12g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Alec MacDonald | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Chan | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1424 · Storm 1422 · ELO difference: 2 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 910 | 916 | Storm +6 |
| Backs | 960 | 936 | Dolphins +24 |
| Halves | 958 | 916 | Dolphins +42 |
| Hooker | 925 | 920 | Dolphins +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-01 12:28 UTC (latest tip update)