AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
58%
Cowboys
42%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 42%. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Bulldogs counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Cowboys carry a 45-point ELO rating advantage (1476 vs 1430). Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.74
Edge
+2.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +2.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R4L R5L R6W R7L R8L older → newer | 21.2 |
Cowboys | R4W R5W R6W R7L R8W | 26.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Bulldogs
21.8
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-2.8
Bulldogs
4.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1743
Bulldogs
1946
Cowboys
Line Breaks
5.2
Bulldogs
7.0
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysPeter Gough
180 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 16 of 25 games (64%) — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 10 from 28 (36%).
Avg Total
44.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1476 vs 1430), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.74).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -0.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.