# Wests Tigers v Raiders — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 33 – 14 Raiders

_Wests Tigers roar back to pounce on Raiders._

Half time: 10 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 56% / Raiders 44% · Leichhardt Oval, Sydney · Thu, 23 Apr, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Luke Laulilii (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Adam Doueihi (16'), Taylan May (41' Tipped ⚡), Adam Doueihi (46'), Luke Laulilii (62' 1st Tipped ⚡), Royce Hunt (78') · Raiders: Matthew Timoko (27'), Kaeo Weekes (32' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 56% | Won |
| Raiders | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Raiders Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 8, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 23 Apr 2026, 09:48 pm_

Wests Tigers 33–14 Raiders in NRL Round 8 at Leichhardt Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-five minutes in, Wests Tigers had it easy. Luke Laulilii scored inside six minutes, Adam Doueihi added another on 16, and at 10-0 with a man advantage this looked done. Then Apisai Koroisau got sent to the bin, and the game turned on its head.

Raiders made the extra man count immediately. Matthew Timoko crossed at 27', Kaeo Weekes followed at 31', and by half-time the Raiders led 14-10. A ten-point cushion had become a four-point deficit, built entirely in that one stretch while Wests Tigers were down to twelve.

Whatever was said at the break worked. Taylan May scored to level it up 14-14, then Doueihi grabbed his second soon after to put Wests Tigers back in front 18-14. From there it wasn't close. Laulilii bagged his second at 61', Doueihi slotted a field goal at 74', and Royce Hunt finished it off late. Final score: Wests Tigers 33, Raiders 14. A four-point halftime hole turned into a nineteen-point win, which is about as complete a reversal as you'll see.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Wests Tigers ran for 1,875 metres to the Raiders' 1,466, and post-contact they piled on 609 to just 410. That's a side that kept getting over the advantage line and kept getting go-forward after it. Seven line breaks to five, 38 tackle breaks to 22, 11 offloads to 7: all of it points to Wests Tigers being the harder team to hold up once the ball was in hand.

Where it really told was in defence. Raiders missed 38 tackles for the game against Wests Tigers' 22, and that gap explains a lot of those second-half points. Wests Tigers held an effective tackle rate of 90.5% to the Raiders' 88.3%, not a massive gulf on paper, but enough when you're also conceding 609 post-contact metres the other way.

Raiders were actually the tidier side with ball in hand, just 9 errors to Wests Tigers' 11, and they completed at 78% against a similar 83% for the home side. Discipline with the footy wasn't the problem for Canberra. Missing more than a third of their tackle attempts was.

Going in, the ratings had Wests Tigers ahead across the park: forwards 1038 to 950, backs 1008 to 930, hooker 1033 to 930, with the Raiders only up in the halves, 985 to 973. That forward and hooker edge showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the collisions and the metres.

Alphr's model backed Wests Tigers at 56% and got the winner right, picked the total at 49 against an actual 47, close enough. The margin was where it fell over, tipping Wests Tigers by 5.4 when they won by 19. A four-point halftime deficit that flipped into a rout isn't something a pre-match number was ever going to see coming. The model went 5 from 17 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 23 | 33 |
| Raiders | 14 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,875** | Run metres | 1,466 |
| **609** | Post-contact metres | 410 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| **11** | Offloads | 7 |
| **90.5%** | Effective tackle % | 88.3% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| 11 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **712** | Kick metres | 649 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.4 but the actual margin was 19 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 47, within 2 points. Wests Tigers trailed 10–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 33–14. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (382 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 25' Sin Bin — Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 27' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 31' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -18 pts
- 41' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 14-14 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 45' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 18-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 61' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 24-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 74' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 27-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Royce Hunt (Wests Tigers) — 31-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.52 (edge -6.2%) — model probability 56.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 5 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 56%, but Raiders stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 43 ELO points clear, 1503 to 1460. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 56-10 in 2026 Round 21.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 3rd against Raiders 13th.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Wests Tigers $1.52 and Raiders $2.52, with the line at Wests Tigers -6.5 and the total at 49.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Raiders 8 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 56-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 3rd · Raiders 13th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.52 · Raiders $2.52 |
| Line | Wests Tigers -6.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 382 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 15W–16L | 48% |
| Raiders | 24W–26L | 48% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Wests Tigers 15W–16L (48%) and Raiders 24W–26L (48%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Wests Tigers's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 19.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1889.4m | Run Metres | 1699.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 331.0 | Tackles | 352.8 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W · R7 L | 26.4 |
| Raiders | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Raiders | 56 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R26 | Raiders | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 16 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 48 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R2 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 9th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 7th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.83/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.14/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) | 1.14/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 0 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 284m/g | 164m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 4.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 15 | 14 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 768m/g | 789m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.5/g | 22.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 76.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 587m/g | 508m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.2/g | 10.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.72) +36% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.43) +42% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leichhardt Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 3/6g | 7/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 2/5g | 1/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/3g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 41' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | no games | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 62' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/15g | 30% | — | 🏉 16' 46' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/18g | 1/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/23g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jock Madden | RES | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/15g | 12% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 29% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 2 | Sebastian Kris | WG | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 10% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/15g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Daine Laurie | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/5g (2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1503 · Raiders 1460 · ELO difference: 43 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1038 | 950 | Wests Tigers +87 |
| Backs | 1008 | 930 | Wests Tigers +77 |
| Halves | 973 | 985 | Raiders +12 |
| Hooker | 1033 | 930 | Wests Tigers +103 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-23 11:48 UTC (latest tip update)