NRL | Round 8

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.4 but the actual margin was 19 points. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 47 — within 2 points. Wests Tigers trailed 10–14 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 33–14. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (382 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80' — Wests Tigers firmly in control (99%)

WES33

99%80'1%

14RAI

← Raiders momentumMomentum +25Wests Tigers momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

56%Wests TigersFavourite

Wests Tigers

56%

Raiders

44%

✨

AI Match Overview

Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Wests Tigers carry a 43-point ELO rating advantage (1503 vs 1460). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 5.4 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Wests Tigers to Win @1.52

Winner ✓

Edge

-6.2%

✓

Line / Spread

Raiders +6.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Wests Tigers	R3L R4W R5W R6W R7L older → newer	26.4
Raiders	R3L R4L R5L R6W R7W	21.2

Avg Conceded

19.4

Wests Tigers

27.2

Raiders

Avg Margin

7.0

Wests Tigers

-6.0

Raiders

Run Metres

1889

Wests Tigers

1699

Raiders

Line Breaks

5.8

Wests Tigers

4.8

Raiders

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Ashley Klein

382 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)

Wests Tigers

15W – 16L

48%

Raiders

24W – 26L

48%

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein — Wests Tigers 15W–16L (48%) and Raiders 24W–26L (48%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

43.5 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

8.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.16

SB Away %

42%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.3

vs Away Teams4.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Wests Tigers

-0.3

Raiders

-0.1

Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game — well below average. He lets the game flow.

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 4-1

Sep 2025WST 10 - 24 CAN

Jun 2025WST 12 - 16 CAN

Jun 2024WST 48 - 24 CAN

Mar 2024WST 12 - 32 CAN

Aug 2023WST 18 - 22 CAN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST

1503Overall1460

CAN

ELO difference: +43 in favour of Wests Tigers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1038Forwards950

WST +87

1008Backs930

WST +77

973Halves985

CAN +12

1033Hooker930

WST +103

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST

Stat

CAN

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

26.4pts

Avg Score

21.2pts

19.4pts

Avg Conceded

27.2pts

7.0pts

Avg Margin

-6.0pts

1889.4m

Run Metres

1699.2m

5.8

Line Breaks

4.8

331.0

Tackles

352.8

12.8

Errors

10.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Tigers

Forward Pack12.0%

Tigers

Backline Quality10.0%

Tigers

Halves Control9.0%

Tigers

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Tigers

Referee Tendency7.0%

Tigers

Venue Advantage7.0%

Tigers

Model Confidence

56%

Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.4

2/4 match predictions correct3/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Jahream BulaWests Tigers

backFair 1.362+ 38%

$1.89

+20.6% edge

Model

74%

Market

53%

Confidence

74%

Taylan MayWests Tigers

backFair 1.552+ 28%

$2.20

+19.0% edge

Model

64%

Market

45%

Confidence

64%

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 1.852+ 18%

$2.30

+10.5% edge

Model

54%

Market

43%

Confidence

54%

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 2.302+ 11%

$2.80

+7.8% edge

Model

44%

Market

36%

Confidence

44%

Sunia TuruvaWests Tigers

backFair 1.632+ 24%

$1.78

+5.0% edge

Model

61%

Market

56%

Confidence

61%

Luke LauliliiWests Tigers

backFair 2.272+ 12%

$1.81

-11.2% edge

Model

44%

Market

55%

Confidence

44%

Starford To'aWests Tigers

backFair 4.382+ 3%

$2.55

-16.4% edge

Model

23%

Market

39%

Confidence

23%

Sebastian KrisRaiders

backFair 9.952+ 1%

$2.25

-34.4% edge

Model

10%

Market

44%

Confidence

10%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 3.442+ 18%

$13.00

+21.4% edge

Model

29%

Market

Confidence

29%

Ethan StrangeRaiders

halfFair 4.662+ 11%

$14.00

+14.3% edge

Model

21%

Market

Confidence

21%

Jahream BulaWests Tigers

backFair 5.702+ 38%

$10.00

+7.5% edge

Model

18%

Market

10%

Confidence

18%

Taylan MayWests Tigers

backFair 7.342+ 28%

$12.00

+5.3% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Sunia TuruvaWests Tigers

backFair 8.002+ 24%

$9.00

+1.4% edge

Model

13%

Market

11%

Confidence

13%