# Warriors v Dolphins — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 20 – 18 Dolphins

_Warriors fight back to march past Dolphins._

Half time: 14 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 63% / Dolphins 37% · Hnry Stadium, Wellington · Sat, 25 Apr, 06:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Alofiana Khan-Pereira (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (25' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (29' 1st Tipped ⚡), Taine Tuaupiki (61') · Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (10' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (17' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (20' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 63% | Won |
| Dolphins | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 25 Apr 2026, 08:50 pm_

Warriors 20–18 Dolphins in NRL Round 8 at Hnry Stadium, Wellington. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes decided how tight this one would get. Jamayne Isaako scored twice in that window, at 17 and 19, turning a 6-4 Warriors lead into a 16-6 Dolphins one, and Hnry Stadium had itself a genuine arm-wrestle. Warriors clawed back through Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and a second Alofiana Khan-Pereira try before the break, but still went to the sheds down 18-14. Final score: Warriors 20, Dolphins 18.

The Dolphins spent the whole night doing the hard work only to hand the reward back. Herbie Farnworth got them on the board early, Isaako's double put them in front, and by half-time they held a four-point buffer that on paper looked defensible. It wasn't. Taine Tuaupiki's try in the 61st minute levelled it at 18-18, and from there the Warriors never let it slip again.

The stat sheet tells you why the Dolphins couldn't hold on. Warriors ran in 9 line breaks to just 2, a gulf that matches the pre-match ratings gap in the halves (1078 to 910) and forwards (1090 to 930). All that shape in attack came off the back of the ball too: Warriors completed at 85% against 74%, and coughed up only 11 errors to the Dolphins' 15. When one side is that much cleaner with the footy, the other has to make its metres count, and the Dolphins didn't quite manage it despite matching Warriors closely in tackle breaks, 36 to 34.

Warriors also had the boot working for them. 667 kick metres to 490 gave them the territory edge to go with 53% possession, and that's the sort of platform that lets a team come from four down without needing to force anything. Thomas Flegler's sin bin in the 63rd, right after the Warriors had levelled it, didn't help the Dolphins' cause either, though the scoreline stayed locked at 18-18 in the immediate aftermath.

Individually, Khan-Pereira was the difference-maker, opening the scoring in the third minute and grabbing a second either side of half-time bookends that mattered. Isaako was the best thing the Dolphins had going, his double the reason they led at the break at all, but two tries from your gun weapon isn't enough when the other 79 minutes go the other way.

Dolphins came in off a rougher trot, two wins from their last five against the Warriors' three, and it showed in the moments that count. Their completion rate and error count both lagged, and for a team already conceding 25 points a game on average coming in, letting a four-point buffer disappear after the break fits the pattern.

Alphr's model had Warriors favourites at 63% and picked the margin at 5.3, remarkably close to how it actually finished at 2. Trailing at the break didn't spook the numbers, and it shouldn't have spooked anyone watching either: the underlying stats, cleaner ball, more line breaks, more territory, were always Warriors' way. The Dolphins covered the line and made a fight of it. They just didn't have enough left when it mattered.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Dolphins | 18 | 0 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **1,722** | Run metres | 1,607 |
| **604** | Post-contact metres | 570 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 34 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| **10** | Offloads | 6 |
| 87.8% | Effective tackle % | **89.1%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **34** |
| **11** | Errors | 15 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **667** | Kick metres | 490 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Warriors trailed 14–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–18. The model went 7/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 5.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (62 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 83% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 10' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 17' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 25' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 14-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 61' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 63' Sin Bin — Thomas Flegler (Dolphins) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.50 (edge -0.5%) — model probability 62.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 63%, but Dolphins stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 123 ELO points clear, 1561 to 1438. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 2nd against Dolphins 12th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.50 and Dolphins $2.60, with the line at Warriors -5.5 and the total at 48.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 15.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Warriors 4 · Dolphins 5 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-16 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 2nd · Dolphins 12th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Warriors $1.50 · Dolphins $2.60 |
| Line | Warriors -5.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 15.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Liam Kennedy** — 62 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 5W–1L | 83% |
| Dolphins | 1W–3L | 25% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 1 from 4 (25%). Small sample (4 games for Dolphins).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Warriors get a +1.9 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dolphins's -0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 1625.0m | Run Metres | 1877.6m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 323.0 | Tackles | 378.0 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W · R7 W | 28.0 |
| Dolphins | R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R7 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Warriors | 16 – 26 | Dolphins | Warriors 58% ✗ |
| 2026 | R17 | Dolphins | 26 – 24 | Warriors | Dolphins 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Warriors | 18 – 20 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Dolphins | 12 – 16 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Averillo, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 0 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 166m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.6% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 14 | 20 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 603m/g | 901m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 20/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 7 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 576m/g | 519m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 8.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21% · Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.73) +18% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hnry Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 8 in 7g | 10/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·3·2·1) | 5/5g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' |
| 3 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 2 in 3g | 8/10g (0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 57% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 29' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 7g | 7/10g (2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Mitchell Barnett | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Laban | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 6 in 6g | 11/10g (1·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·2·1) | 3/8g | 0/0g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' 20' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 6 in 6g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 8/10g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Trai Fuller | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1561 · Dolphins 1438 · ELO difference: 123 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1090 | 930 | Warriors +160 |
| Backs | 1022 | 931 | Warriors +91 |
| Halves | 1078 | 910 | Warriors +168 |
| Hooker | 1054 | 919 | Warriors +135 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Warriors predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-25 10:50 UTC (latest tip update)