Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 5.3 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Warriors trailed 14–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–18. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (62 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 8 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Warriors's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Warriors have a 83% win rate under this referee. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
63%
Dolphins
37%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 123-point ELO rating advantage (1561 vs 1438). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Warriors by 5.3 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.5%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6W R2026-R7W older → newer | 28.0 |
Dolphins | R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R7L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Warriors
25.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
5.2
Warriors
-3.4
Dolphins
Run Metres
1625
Warriors
1878
Dolphins
Line Breaks
5.2
Warriors
4.2
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsLiam Kennedy
62 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 1 from 4 (25%). Small sample (4 games for Dolphins).
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.0
Sin Bins / Gm
0.34
SB Away %
70%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Warriors's -2.0. 70% of his 10 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Warriors predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.3
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.