Win Probability
AI Game Review
Rabbitohs defied the model's 63% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.2 but the actual margin was 42 points. Rabbitohs led 0–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 3/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (291 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 11 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 14 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
63%
Rabbitohs
37%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Storm ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.2 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.64
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.4%
Line / Spread
Storm -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6L R2026-R7L older → newer | 16.8 |
Rabbitohs | R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L R2026-R7W | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
32.0
Storm
22.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-15.2
Storm
4.0
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1501
Storm
1674
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
4.6
Storm
5.4
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours StormAdam Gee
291 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 29 of 42 games (69%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 14 from 31 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.0
Sin Bins / Gm
0.13
SB Away %
25%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 14 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.5 against home vs 7.6 against away. Storm get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -4.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.2
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.