# Storm v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 6 – 48 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs burrow past Storm._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 63% / Rabbitohs 37% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sat, 25 Apr, 08:10 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Sualauvi Faalogo (70') · Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Alex Johnston (22' 1st Tipped 🎯), Campbell Graham (26' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Dufty (29'), Tallis Duncan (35'), Euan Aitken (55'), Tallis Duncan (62'), Campbell Graham (67' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 63% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.2 predicted → 42 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Storm vs Rabbitohs Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 8, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 25 Apr 2026, 10:18 pm_

Storm 6–48 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 8 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen line breaks to one. That's the number that explains a 48-6 scoreline, and it happened to Storm at AAMI Park against a Rabbitohs side that simply kept finding space nobody else could see.

Alex Johnston opened the account inside eight minutes, back for his second by the 22nd, and by the 35th mark Rabbitohs led 0-22 courtesy of Campbell Graham, Matthew Dufty and Tallis Duncan all crossing inside a ten-minute burst. Storm didn't get on the board until the 69th minute, through Sualauvi Faalogo, by which point the game had long stopped being a contest. Rabbitohs led 24-0 at the break and just kept adding to it, Duncan finishing with a hat-trick either side of the interval and Euan Aitken chiming in for good measure.

The completion numbers tell you why Storm never got a foothold. Rabbitohs completed at 81% to Storm's 65%, and with 55% of possession that gap in accuracy meant more sets, more field position, more chances to hurt a defence that was already under siege. Storm actually won the penalty count, 2 conceded to 8, which in most games would count for something. Here it barely registered against 14 errors compared to the Rabbitohs' 9.

Run metres went 2,118 to 1,332 in the visitors' favour, and post-contact metres split 636 to 453, the kind of gap that shows a forward pack getting quick play-the-balls while the other side is stuck fending off second and third efforts. Storm's tackle-break count of 39 to 34 suggests individuals were making yards when they got the ball, but it didn't matter without the go-forward or the completions to back it up.

Pre-match, the model had Storm's backline rated at 1016 against the Rabbitohs' 945, with the halves edge 1008 to 954 also favouring the home side. On paper that should have meant Storm controlled attacking shape. Instead it was Rabbitohs who bossed the collisions and the ball-playing, doing it with the four line-break carriers among their eight try scorers doing most of the damage. The one spot where Rabbitohs rated stronger pre-match, hooker, 1001 to 963, ended up mattering more than the rest combined given how much quick ruck ball fed those breaks.

Form lines pointed this way even if nobody expected the gap to be this wide. Storm arrived on five straight losses, averaging 16.8 points scored and 32 conceded, an average margin of minus 15.2. Rabbitohs came in on three wins from five, averaging 26.8 points for and just 22.8 against. Add it up and this result sits squarely inside what both sides had been trending towards, just amplified.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 63% and predicted a 6.2-point win with a combined total near 47. The actual margin was 42. Wrong side, wrong by a mile, and a reminder that ratings built on season form don't always account for a team turning up completely switched off. The model went 3 from 17 on this one. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Rabbitohs | 24 | 24 | 48 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,332 | Run metres | **2,118** |
| 453 | Post-contact metres | **636** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **14** |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 84.1% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 490 | Kick metres | **561** |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 63% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.2 but the actual margin was 42 points. Rabbitohs led 0–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 42. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (291 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 11 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Rabbitohs bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Matthew Dufty (Rabbitohs) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 35' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 55' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 0-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 66' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 0-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 69' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 4-42 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 6-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.64 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 63.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 63%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 37%. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Storm.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Storm by 6.2, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-26 in 2026 Round 21.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Rabbitohs have put up 140 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 15th against Rabbitohs 4th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.64 and Rabbitohs $2.27, with the line at Storm -2.5 and the total at 50.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Rabbitohs 4 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-26 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 15th · Rabbitohs 4th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Storm $1.64 · Rabbitohs $2.27 |
| Line | Storm -2.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Adam Gee** — 291 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 29W–13L | 69% |
| Rabbitohs | 14W–17L | 45% |

Avg total: 42.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 29 of 42 games (69%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 14 from 31 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| -15.2pts | Avg Margin | 4.0pts |
| 1500.8m | Run Metres | 1673.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 348.0 | Tackles | 306.4 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 16.8 |
| Rabbitohs | R2 L · R3 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 26 | Storm |
| 2025 | R16 | Rabbitohs | 24 – 25 | Storm |
| 2025 | R8 | Storm | 24 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R23 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 28 | Storm |
| 2024 | R8 | Storm | 54 – 20 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 8th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.33 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Mitchell, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 11th) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.71/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 3 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 264m/g | 140m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 20 | 25 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 679m/g | 685m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 16.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.9% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 8 | 2 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 478m/g | 645m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.5/g (lg 0.27) +85% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.37/g (lg 1.26) +9% · Centres 0.67/g (lg 0.73) -8% · Locks 0.08/g (lg 0.09) -11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·3·1·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/12g | 55% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 7 in 7g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·4·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 15/28g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 6/21g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | WG | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/12g | 19/47g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Manaia Waitere | CE | 1 in 4g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/18g | 34/104g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 31/71g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 19/50g | 30% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 7/49g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/49g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 11/44g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/35g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Shawn Blore | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 7 in 6g | 10/10g (2·0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 17/15g | 6/6g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 22% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 22' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 10 in 6g | 10/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1·4) | 5/18g | 2/7g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 83% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/23g | 3/11g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 1/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 67' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 3/15g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Brandon Smith | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 8/42g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 24% | — | 🏉 35' 62' 79' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | RES | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Keaon Koloamatangi | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1478 · Rabbitohs 1474 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1008 | 1011 | Rabbitohs +3 |
| Backs | 1016 | 945 | Storm +71 |
| Halves | 1008 | 954 | Storm +54 |
| Hooker | 963 | 1001 | Rabbitohs +38 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Storm predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-25 12:18 UTC (latest tip update)