# Sea Eagles v Eels — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 33 – 18 Eels

_Sea Eagles soar past Eels._

Half time: 7 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 62% / Eels 38% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 26 Apr, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Jake Trbojevic (3' 1st), Lehi Hopoate (49' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (54' Tipped ⚡), Jamal Fogarty (56'), Jason Saab (62'), Clayton Faulalo (72') · Eels: Brian Kelly (7'), Mitchell Moses (66'), Luca Moretti (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 62% | Won |
| Eels | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 26 Apr 2026, 06:13 pm_

Sea Eagles 33–18 Eels in NRL Round 8 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine line breaks to two. That's the number that explains a 33-18 scoreline, and it's why the Sea Eagles beat the Eels at Brookvale Oval in a game that was a two-point arm wrestle for most of an hour before it wasn't.

At half-time it was 7-6, Sea Eagles up on the back of Jake Trbojevic's try inside the first two minutes and a Jamal Fogarty field goal right on the stroke of the break. Brian Kelly had levelled things up for the Eels early, and for a good stretch this looked like a genuine arm wrestle. Then the game tipped over. Lehi Hopoate scored in the 49th, Reuben Garrick followed in the 54th, Fogarty added a second try two minutes after that, and inside a seven-minute burst the margin went from one score to seventeen. Jason Saab and Clayton Faulalo piled on more after Tallyn Da Silva's sin bin in the 60th, and by the time Luca Moretti crossed for the Eels in the 78th it was academic.

The line break count tells you why it unfolded like that. Nine line breaks against two isn't a contest, it's a team finding space at will while the other side scrambles. Sea Eagles backed that up with 32 tackle breaks to 24 and 16 offloads to 11, the sort of numbers that come from go-forward the Eels simply couldn't match. Run metres, 1,977 to 1,461, and post-contact metres, 626 to 460, say the same thing from a different angle: Manly were getting over the advantage line and still going forward after the tackle, Parramatta weren't.

Ball control mattered too. Sea Eagles completed at 87% and coughed up the ball just 9 times. The Eels completed at 76% and threw it away 14 times, which is a lot of possessions handed straight back when you're already behind on metres. The one column where Parramatta had the edge was kicking, 729 metres to 572, but territory off the boot means little when you can't stop the other side scoring once they get the ball back, and the Eels missed 32 tackles to Manly's 24.

None of it should come as a total shock given what each side brought in. Manly held the edge in every positional rating quoted pre-match, forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and their hooker advantage in particular, 997 to 882, lines up with a night where the middle of the field was won comfortably. Manly also arrived in better form, three wins from five against two, and conceding 22.2 points a game on average against Parramatta's 32.4. The tape mostly matched the form guide.

Alphr's model had Sea Eagles favourites at 62% and picked the margin at 9.1 points, with a combined total of 45. The actual margin came in at 15, so the model had the right team and the right shape of the result, just short on how comfortably it would happen. The under on 53.5 total points landed, and Sea Eagles covered the 7.5 handicap. Model went 5 from 17 on the match markets overall, a reminder that picking the winner and pricing the margin correctly are two different jobs.

Eels had their moments, Kelly's early try and a late double from Moses and Moretti kept the scoreboard from looking completely one-sided, but two line breaks against nine was never going to be enough.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 7 | 26 | 33 |
| Eels | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,977** | Run metres | 1,461 |
| **626** | Post-contact metres | 460 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **16** | Offloads | 11 |
| **87.5%** | Effective tackle % | 85.5% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| **9** | Errors | 14 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 572 | Kick metres | **729** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 9.1 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. Sea Eagles led 7–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 15. The model went 5/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 7.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (179 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 7 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 47% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Jake Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 6' Try — Brian Kelly (Eels) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles) — 7-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 11-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 54' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 17-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 56' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles) — 23-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 60' Sin Bin — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 23-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 62' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 27-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 66' Try — Mitchell Moses (Eels) — 27-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 31-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Luca Moretti (Eels) — 33-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.43 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 62.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 62%, but Eels stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 100 ELO points clear, 1521 to 1421. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 9.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 23-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 6th against Eels 14th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.43 and Eels $2.84, with the line at Sea Eagles -7.5 and the total at 53.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle: 16.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 4 · Eels 6 |
| Last meeting | Eels 23-14 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 6th · Eels 14th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.43 · Eels $2.84 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -7.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough · 16.8 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Peter Gough** — 179 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 8W–9L | 47% |
| Eels | 10W–18L | 36% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 8W–9L (47%) vs Eels's 10W–18L (36%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Eels get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sea Eagles's -1.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Conceded | 32.4pts |
| 7.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1794.4m | Run Metres | 1591.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 315.0 | Tackles | 351.0 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R2 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W · R7 W | 30.0 |
| Eels | R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R18 | Eels | 23 – 14 | Sea Eagles | Sea Eagles 70% ✗ |
| 2025 | R12 | Eels | 30 – 10 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2025 | R4 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 12 | Eels | not priced |
| 2024 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 18 | Eels | not priced |
| 2024 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 24 | Sea Eagles | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 17th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 4th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.83/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.14/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.43/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) | 0.71/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 1 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 154m/g | 106m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.2/g | 1.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 80.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 15 | 14 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 776m/g | 649m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14/g | 15.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 4 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 557m/g | 487m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Centres 1.04/g (lg 0.72) +44% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.13) +38%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.26) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tolutau Koula | FB | 3 in 6g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 24/38g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 22/41g | 34% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 3 | Clayton Faulalo | CE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/12g | 17% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 13/14g | 40/61g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 54' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·2) | 3/2g | 10/21g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/20g | 8/32g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 2/50g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 20/42g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 10/37g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 17/99g | 4% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 3/37g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 6/40g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/16g | 4% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joash Papalii | FB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 0 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 10/23g | 28% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (0·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 6/15g | 2/6g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 1 in 2g | 2/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 2/5g | 24% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/22g | 0/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Jack Williams | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 13/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Saxon Pryke | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Toni Mataele | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1521 · Eels 1421 · ELO difference: 100 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1021 | 959 | Sea Eagles +62 |
| Backs | 992 | 941 | Sea Eagles +51 |
| Halves | 990 | 955 | Sea Eagles +35 |
| Hooker | 997 | 882 | Sea Eagles +115 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-26 08:13 UTC (latest tip update)