NRL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

Sun 26 Apr4:05pm

MANMAN

PARPAR

MAN

Sea Eagles

PAR

Eels

4 PINES PARK, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 26 APR, 4:05 PM AEST

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 9.1 was reasonable against the actual 15-point result. Sea Eagles led 7–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 15. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Peter Gough officiated this match (179 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 7 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 47% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 14.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Sea Eagles firmly in control (99%)

SEA33

99%80'1%

18EEL

← Eels momentumMomentum -20Sea Eagles momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

62%Sea EaglesFavourite

Sea Eagles

62%

Eels

38%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 100-point ELO rating advantage (1521 vs 1421). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.1 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.43

Winner ✓

Edge

-4.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Sea Eagles -7.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sea Eagles	R2026-R2L R2026-R4L R2026-R5W R2026-R6W R2026-R7W older → newer	30.0
Eels	R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6L R2026-R7W	23.6

Avg Conceded

22.2

Sea Eagles

32.4

Eels

Avg Margin

7.8

Sea Eagles

-8.8

Eels

Run Metres

1794

Sea Eagles

1591

Eels

Line Breaks

5.0

Sea Eagles

4.0

Eels

Referee Indicator

Favours Sea Eagles

Peter Gough

179 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sea Eagles

8W – 9L

47%

Eels

10W – 18L

36%

Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 8W–9L (47%) vs Eels's 10W–18L (36%).

Avg Total

44.2 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

14.1

Sin Bins / Gm

0.37

SB Away %

64%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.7

vs Away Teams7.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sea Eagles

-1.0

Eels

-1.7

Peter Gough averages 14.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.7 against home vs 7.4 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Eels's -1.7. 64% of his 11 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Eels lead 3-2

May 2025MAN 10 - 30 PAR

Mar 2025MAN 26 - 12 PAR

Apr 2024MAN 32 - 18 PAR

Mar 2024MAN 24 - 28 PAR

Jun 2023MAN 4 - 34 PAR

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MAN

1521Overall1421

PAR

ELO difference: +100 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1021Forwards959

MAN +62

992Backs941

MAN +51

990Halves955

MAN +35

997Hooker882

MAN +115

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MAN

Stat

PAR

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

30.0pts

Avg Score

23.6pts

22.2pts

Avg Conceded

32.4pts

7.8pts

Avg Margin

-8.8pts

1794.4m

Run Metres

1591.4m

5.0

Line Breaks

4.0

315.0

Tackles

351.0

11.2

Errors

11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Eagles

Forward Pack12.0%

Eagles

Backline Quality10.0%

Eagles

Halves Control9.0%

Eagles

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Eagles

Referee Tendency7.0%

Eagles

Venue Advantage7.0%

Eagles

Model Confidence

62%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +9.1

3/4 match predictions correct2/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 1.312+ 42%

$1.56

+12.2% edge

Model

76%

Market

64%

Confidence

76%

Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles

forwardFair 1.752+ 21%

$2.12

+10.1% edge

Model

57%

Market

47%

Confidence

57%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 1.922+ 17%

$2.35

+9.6% edge

Model

52%

Market

43%

Confidence

52%

Will PenisiniEels

backFair 2.202+ 12%

$2.50

+5.4% edge

Model

45%

Market

40%

Confidence

45%

Sean RussellEels

backFair 2.132+ 13%

$2.25

+2.6% edge

Model

47%

Market

44%

Confidence

47%

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 1.522+ 29%

$1.53

+0.6% edge

Model

66%

Market

65%

Confidence

66%

Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles

backFair 1.812+ 19%

$1.74

-2.4% edge

Model

55%

Market

57%

Confidence

55%

Joash PapaliiEels

backFair 5.262+ 2%

$2.90

-15.5% edge

Model

19%

Market

34%

Confidence

19%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 4.552+ 29%

$8.50

+10.2% edge

Model

22%

Market

12%

Confidence

22%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 5.022+ 42%

$8.50

+8.2% edge

Model

20%

Market

12%

Confidence

20%

Sean RussellEels

backFair 7.722+ 13%

$13.00

+5.3% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Will PenisiniEels

backFair 8.092+ 12%

$14.00

+5.2% edge

Model

12%

Market

Confidence

12%

Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles

forwardFair 8.522+ 21%

$11.00

+2.7% edge

Model

12%

Market

Confidence

12%