Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Panthers led 6–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (363 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
35%
Panthers
65%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 261-point ELO rating advantage (1683 vs 1423). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Panthers by 6.7 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.21
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.2%
Line / Spread
Knights +13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L R2026-R7L older → newer | 22.8 |
Panthers | R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L R2026-R7W | 35.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.2
Knights
17.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
-6.4
Knights
17.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1557
Knights
1793
Panthers
Line Breaks
4.4
Knights
6.4
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedGerard Sutton
363 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Knights 16W–17L (48%) and Panthers 32W–29L (52%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
5.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.07
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Knights get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Panthers's +0.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Panthers predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.7
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.