# Knights v Panthers — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 12 – 44 Panthers

_Panthers put Knights to the sword._

Half time: 6 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 35% / Panthers 65% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 26 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Phoenix Crossland (36'), Dylan Brown (53') · Panthers: Dylan Edwards (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Edwards (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dylan Edwards (20' 1st Tipped 🎯), Nathan Cleary (29'), Freddy Lussick (48'), Brian To'o (64'), Brian To'o (69'), Izack Tago (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 65% | Won |
| Knights | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 26 Apr 2026, 04:48 pm_

Knights 12–44 Panthers in NRL Round 8 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Newcastle actually won the kicking battle. Knights put boot to ball for 641 metres against the Panthers' 536, and that's about the only column on the sheet where they came out on top. Everything else tells the story of a side that had the ball taken off them and couldn't get it back.

The completion numbers say it plainly enough: Knights finished at 65%, Panthers at 77%. Fifteen errors to 12 doesn't sound like a chasm until you factor in the possession split, 44% to 56%, which meant Newcastle were doing more with less and still spilling it more often. You can't win a game against Penrith's forward pack and halves on that kind of ledger, and the ratings back it up: Panthers held the edge everywhere on paper, forwards 1183 to 929, halves 1201 to 903, hooker 1171 to 957.

Where it really fell apart was in defence. Knights missed 58 tackles to the Panthers' 32, and Penrith racked up 58 tackle breaks to Newcastle's 32 in reply. Ten line breaks to three. That's not a defensive read gone slightly wrong, that's a system that couldn't hold a line all night.

Newcastle did get points on the board through Phoenix Crossland and Dylan Brown, and neither try was cheap, both came against a set that had already banked a stack of ball and metres. Brown's four-pointer on 52 minutes at least kept the margin at 20, but Penrith always had an answer ready.

That answer arrived early and often. Dylan Edwards opened the scoring in the 12th minute and had a hat-trick sewn up by the 20th, Penrith racing to a 0-16 lead before Newcastle had troubled the scoreboard. Nathan Cleary added his own four-pointer in the 29th to make it 22-0, and by the time Crossland finally got the Knights on the board it was already 4-24. Newcastle went into the sheds down 6-24, a margin their attack was never going to claw back against a side finishing at 2,216 run metres to their 1,350 and 603 post-contact metres to 360.

Freddy Lussick, Brian To'o twice and Izack Tago rounded out the scoring after the break, To'o's double either side of the 64th and 68th minute putting real distance between the sides before Tago's try in the 76th made it 44-12. Penrith running away in the manner their form line suggested they might, given they'd arrived on a WWWLW run averaging 35.4 points a game to the Knights' 22.8.

Alphr's model had Panthers at 65% to win and picked the right side comfortably. The margin was the miss, tipped at 6.7 points against an actual gap of 32, which says more about how thoroughly Newcastle's defence unravelled than any flaw in the read on who'd win. Three tries to eight, and a forward and backline mismatch that showed up in almost every column on the stat sheet. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was a big miss on the margin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Panthers | 24 | 20 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,350 | Run metres | **2,216** |
| 360 | Post-contact metres | **603** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **10** |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **58** |
| 12 | Offloads | **13** |
| 83.3% | Effective tackle % | **84.8%** |
| 58 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| 15 | Errors | **12** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| **641** | Kick metres | 536 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Panthers led 6–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (363 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 14 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 15' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 20' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 36' Try — Phoenix Crossland (Knights) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 48' Try — Freddy Lussick (Panthers) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 52' Try — Dylan Brown (Knights) — 10-30 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 64' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 12-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 12-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 12-42 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.21 (edge -13.2%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 65% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 261 ELO points clear, 1683 to 1423. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Knights.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 46. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 30.

On the ladder it's Knights 8th against Panthers 1st.

The market has Panthers favourites, Knights $4.45 and Panthers $1.21, with the line at Knights +13.5 and the total at 50.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-14 |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 8th · Panthers 1st |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Knights $4.45 · Panthers $1.21 |
| Line | Knights +13.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.0 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 363 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16W–17L | 48% |
| Panthers | 32W–29L | 52% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Knights 16W–17L (48%) and Panthers 32W–29L (52%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 35.4pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 17.8pts |
| 1557.4m | Run Metres | 1792.8m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 364.6 | Tackles | 333.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 L | 22.8 |
| Panthers | R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R7 W | 35.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Panthers | 14 – 22 | Knights | Panthers 75% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Knights | 12 – 48 | Panthers | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Panthers | 6 – 25 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Panthers | 22 – 14 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Knights | 18 – 26 | Panthers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Hunt, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.86 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 7th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.43/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) | 2.86/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.29/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.43/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 7th) | 0.71/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 8 | 5 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 175m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.6% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 17 | 29 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 689m/g | 828m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.7/g | 19.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 508m/g | 536m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 90% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.13) -15% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.43) -21%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.21) +62% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 2 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 14/12g | 51% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 7g | 9/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·3·2·1·0) | 2/9g | 28/32g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 28% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/25g | 26/110g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 6 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·3) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | James Schiller | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/80g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/56g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | INT | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 17% | — | — |
| 11 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/45g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Pasami Saulo | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Hopwood | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 3/9g | 1/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 16' 20' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 16 in 7g | 17/10g (0·1·0·2·2·4·2·2·2·2) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.33 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 28% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 7g | 6/10g (0·3·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/3g | 2/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 3 in 7g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 5/4g | 44% | — | 🏉 64' 69' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 2/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 1/6g | 26% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 3/8g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kalani Leuluai-Going | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1423 · Panthers 1683 · ELO difference: 261 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 929 | 1183 | Panthers +254 |
| Backs | 920 | 1184 | Panthers +265 |
| Halves | 903 | 1201 | Panthers +298 |
| Hooker | 957 | 1171 | Panthers +214 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-26 06:48 UTC (latest tip update)