Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.9 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 78 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 46. Roosters led 4–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 8/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (314 career games). The combined score of 78 points was 35 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 62% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.9 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 67% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
34%
Roosters
66%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 343-point ELO rating advantage (1583 vs 1240). Recent form favours Roosters with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Roosters by 6.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.7%
Line / Spread
Dragons +16.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6L R2026-R7L older → newer | 12.8 |
Roosters | R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R6W R2026-R7W | 27.0 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Dragons
24.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
-15.6
Dragons
3.0
Roosters
Run Metres
1695
Dragons
1835
Roosters
Line Breaks
3.6
Dragons
4.8
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
314 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 34 of 55 games (62%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 37 (41%).
Avg Total
43.0 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.10
SB Away %
67%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Dragons get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Roosters's -4.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Roosters predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.