# Dragons v Roosters — NRL Round 8 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 16 – 62 Roosters

_Roosters put Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 4 – 34 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 34% / Roosters 66% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 25 Apr, 04:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Setu Tu (24' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (56' Tipped ⚡), Moses Suli (67' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Sam Walker (9' 1st), Siua Wong (11'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (17' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (19' 1st), Robert Toia (32' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (38' Tipped ⚡), Reece Robson (48'), Angus Crichton (53'), James Tedesco (59' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (63' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (71' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 66% | Won |
| Dragons | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.9 predicted → 46 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 8 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Apr 2026, 08:19 pm · Last updated: 25 Apr 2026, 06:04 pm_

Dragons 16–62 Roosters in NRL Round 8 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Roosters winning by 6.9 points. They won by 46. That's not a miss, that's a different sport.

The direction was never in doubt. Roosters were rated at 1583 to the Dragons' 1240, a gap that showed up everywhere in the positional numbers: 1047 to 740 up front, 1094 to 724 in the backs, 1053 to 733 in the halves. Roosters came in on four wins from five, averaging 27 points a game. Dragons arrived with five straight losses and an average score of 12.8. On paper this was always going to be one-way traffic. The model just badly underestimated how one-way.

Sam Walker set the tone in the 9th minute and had a second try by the 18th. By then it was 0-20 and Dragons hadn't sniffed the ball in good ship. A Luciano Leilua sin bin in the 16th didn't help, and neither did Daniel Atkinson following him to the bin in the 29th. Setu Tu got one back for the Dragons at 24 minutes to make it 4-22, but Robert Toia and a second Nawaqanitawase try before halftime had it at 4-32, and Reece Robson's try three minutes after the break put it to 4-38. Roosters led 34-4 at the break and simply kept going, adding four more tries after halftime through Crichton, Tedesco and two from Daniel Tupou. Final margin: 46.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already screamed. Roosters ran for 1,810 metres to the Dragons' 1,150, and their 535 post-contact metres tell you they weren't just running into space, they were running through bodies. Seven line breaks to two is the number that decides a game like this on its own. Roosters completed at 81% against 68%, meaning they had the ball more often (54% possession) and did more with it each time they had it.

Dragons weren't hopeless with the ball, offloading nine times to Roosters' six and actually posting a better effective tackle percentage, 90.1% to 88.8%. But 30 missed tackles against a side finding seven line breaks is a losing formula no matter how you dress it up. Their kick game held up too, 537 metres to 485, for what little that's worth when you're conceding tries at that rate.

Individually, Sam Walker set it rolling with two tries and Mark Nawaqanitawase matched him with two of his own, either side of Tupou's double late. That's six tries between three players, more than the Dragons managed as a team. Setu Tu, Tyrell Sloan and Moses Suli got the Dragons on the board, which at least meant the linebreak column read a token 2 rather than a zero.

Alphr's model called the winner correctly at 66% probability, which was the right side of the ledger. It went 8 from 17 on the finer detail of this one, and the margin call was the clear letdown, tipping 46 combined points shy of what actually turned up on the board. Wins and misses, all of it. The pick was right. The maths on how right needs work.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 4 | 12 | 16 |
| Roosters | 34 | 28 | 62 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| 68% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| 1,150 | Run metres | **1,810** |
| 373 | Post-contact metres | **535** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **30** |
| **9** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.1%** | Effective tackle % | 88.8% |
| 30 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 13 | Errors | **11** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **537** | Kick metres | 485 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.9 but the actual margin was 46 points. The game's 78 points came in 32 points higher than the predicted 46. Roosters led 4–34 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 8/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (314 career games). The combined score of 78 points was 35 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 62% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -8 pts
- 11' Try — Siua Wong (Roosters) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 16' Sin Bin — Luciano Leilua (Dragons) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 16' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 18' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 24' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 4-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 29' Sin Bin — Daniel Atkinson (Dragons) — 4-22 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 32' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 37' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 4-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 47' Try — Reece Robson (Roosters) — 4-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 53' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 4-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 55' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 8-46 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 58' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 10-50 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 10-56 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 66' Try — Moses Suli (Dragons) — 14-58 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 16-62 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.18 (edge -13.7%) — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +16.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 66% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 343 ELO points clear, 1583 to 1240. Form leans Roosters' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 6.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 62-16 in 2026 Round 8.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Roosters 5th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Dragons $4.75 and Roosters $1.18, with the line at Dragons +16.5 and the total at 52.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 62-16 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Roosters 5th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Market | Dragons $4.75 · Roosters $1.18 |
| Line | Dragons +16.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.2 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 314 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 15W–22L | 41% |
| Roosters | 34W–21L | 62% |

Avg total: 43.0 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Roosters have won 34 of 55 games (62%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 15 from 37 (41%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 12.8pts | Avg Score | 27.0pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -15.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.0pts |
| 1695.4m | Run Metres | 1834.6m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 379.4 | Tackles | 320.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 13.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L | 12.8 |
| Roosters | R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R6 W · R7 W | 27.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Dragons | 24 – 31 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R8 | Roosters | 46 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R18 | Roosters | 42 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R8 | Dragons | 18 – 60 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R12 | Dragons | 24 – 22 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 16th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Leilua, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 14th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.71/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 9th) | 1.67/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.43/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.17/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 174m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.1% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 24 | 18 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 693m/g | 774m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12/g | 23.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 76.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 572m/g | 527m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.1/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.21) +48% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.43) +40% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrell Sloan | FB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/15g | 0/5g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 5/9g | 38% | — | — |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kade Reed | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/23g | 1/12g | 12% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Ryan Couchman | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Kerr | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 16/23g | 27/51g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 4 in 6g | 8/10g (3·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 13/19g | 73/101g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 74% ✓ Scored | 🏉 63' 71' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 4/10g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/12g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 5 in 6g | 13/10g (0·4·3·1·0·1·0·2·0·2) | 1/2g | 13/13g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.41 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 38' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 3/20g | 4/25g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/7g | 8/22g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' 19' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/27g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 4/33g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 8/32g | 24% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/13g | 7/42g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 7/45g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 3/30g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1240 · Roosters 1583 · ELO difference: 343 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 740 | 1047 | Roosters +307 |
| Backs | 724 | 1094 | Roosters +370 |
| Halves | 733 | 1053 | Roosters +320 |
| Hooker | 773 | 1079 | Roosters +306 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Roosters predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-25 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)