NRL | Round 8

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 51% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 80 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 7/17 on this match. The Draw margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Belinda Sharpe officiated this match (22 career games). The combined score of 80 points was 40 points above Belinda Sharpe's career average of 40. Cowboys's victory aligns with Belinda Sharpe's historical trend, Cowboys have a 100% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Cowboys firmly in control (99%)

COW46

99%80'1%

34SHA

← Sharks momentumMomentum +14Cowboys momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

51%CowboysFavourite

Cowboys

51%

Sharks

49%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Cowboys a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Cowboys counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 96-point ELO rating advantage (1535 vs 1439). Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Cowboys to Win @1.98

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.9%

✓

Line / Spread

Cowboys +1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Sharks Draw @8.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Cowboys	R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6W R2026-R7L older → newer	26.2
Sharks	R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L	21.6

Avg Conceded

21.8

Cowboys

28.4

Sharks

Avg Margin

4.4

Cowboys

-6.8

Sharks

Run Metres

1946

Cowboys

1580

Sharks

Line Breaks

7.0

Cowboys

4.8

Sharks

Referee Indicator

Favours Cowboys

Belinda Sharpe

22 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Belinda Sharpe refs each team (vs any opponent)

Cowboys

3W – 0L

100%

Sharks

1W – 1L

50%

When Belinda Sharpe officiates, Cowboys have won 3 of 3 games (100%), significantly stronger than Sharks's 1 from 2 (50%). Small sample (2 games for Sharks).

Avg Total

40.4 pts

Home Win %

50%

Home Bias

Neutral

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.52

SB Away %

33%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.7

vs Away Teams6.2

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Cowboys

+0.0

Sharks

+4.3

Penalises away teams more, 5.7 against home vs 6.2 against away. Sharks get a +4.3 penalty advantage under Belinda Sharpe vs Cowboys's +0.0. 67% of his 12 career sin bins go to home teams, unusual.

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1

Aug 2025NQL 12 - 32 CRO

Mar 2025NQL 12 - 36 CRO

Oct 2024NQL 18 - 26 CRO

Aug 2024NQL 30 - 22 CRO

Apr 2024NQL 6 - 42 CRO

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1535 vs 1439), but the market favours Cowboys (@1.98).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL

1439Overall1535

CRO

ELO difference: -96 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

912Forwards1046

CRO +134

935Backs1031

CRO +96

939Halves1064

CRO +125

940Hooker1065

CRO +126

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL

Stat

CRO

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

26.2pts

Avg Score

21.6pts

21.8pts

Avg Conceded

28.4pts

4.4pts

Avg Margin

-6.8pts

1945.8m

Run Metres

1580.4m

7.0

Line Breaks

4.8

315.8

Tackles

358.2

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Sharks

Forward Pack12.0%

Sharks

Backline Quality10.0%

Sharks

Halves Control9.0%

Sharks

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Cowboys

Referee Tendency7.0%

Cowboys

Venue Advantage7.0%

Cowboys

Model Confidence

51%

Cowboys predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -0.2

2/4 match predictions correct5/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Jaxon PurdueCowboys

backFair 1.612+ 25%

$2.18

+16.4% edge

Model

62%

Market

46%

Confidence

62%

Scott DrinkwaterCowboys

backFair 2.012+ 15%

$2.60

+11.4% edge

Model

50%

Market

38%

Confidence

50%

William KennedySharks

backFair 1.862+ 18%

$2.35

+11.3% edge

Model

54%

Market

43%

Confidence

54%

Braidon BurnsCowboys

backFair 1.612+ 25%

$1.94

+10.6% edge

Model

62%

Market

52%

Confidence

62%

Murray TaulagiCowboys

backFair 1.482+ 31%

$1.74

+9.9% edge

Model

67%

Market

57%

Confidence

67%

Jeremiah NanaiCowboys

forwardFair 2.482+ 10%

$2.70

+3.2% edge

Model

40%

Market

37%

Confidence

40%

KL IroSharks

backFair 2.302+ 11%

$2.08

-4.6% edge

Model

43%

Market

48%

Confidence

43%

Mawene HirotiSharks

backFair 2.232+ 12%

$1.87

-8.7% edge

Model

45%

Market

53%

Confidence

45%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jaxon PurdueCowboys

backFair 6.832+ 25%

$13.00

+7.0% edge

Model

15%

Market

Confidence

15%

Murray TaulagiCowboys

backFair 5.932+ 31%

$10.00

+6.9% edge

Model

17%

Market

10%

Confidence

17%

Braidon BurnsCowboys

backFair 6.842+ 25%

$11.00

+5.5% edge

Model

15%

Market

Confidence

15%

Scott DrinkwaterCowboys

backFair 9.632+ 15%

$14.00

+3.2% edge

Model

10%

Market

Confidence

10%

William KennedySharks

backFair 9.682+ 18%

$13.00

+2.6% edge

Model

10%

Market

Confidence

10%