Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 64% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.6 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (43 career games). The combined score of 44 points was 6 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Broncos bucked the trend, Bulldogs historically win 67% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Broncos's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
36%
Bulldogs
64%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 36%. Broncos are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Bulldogs counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1572 vs 1455). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 4.6 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.54
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.1%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L R2026-R7W older → newer | 24.4 |
Bulldogs | R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6W R2026-R7L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
18.6
Broncos
24.0
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
5.8
Broncos
-2.8
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1707
Broncos
1743
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.2
Broncos
5.2
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsWyatt Raymond
43 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Bulldogs have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 2 from 4 (50%). Games average 50.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Broncos).
Avg Total
50.5 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.36
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Broncos get a +-0.7 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -1.3.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1572 vs 1455), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -4.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.