Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers — a notable result. The margin model was sharp — predicting Wests Tigers by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (100 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 5 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
52%
Broncos
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wests Tigers a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Broncos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Wests Tigers counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 30-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1523). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 2.9 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.52
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.4%
Line / Spread
Broncos +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W W L L | 28.4 |
Broncos | W W W L L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Wests Tigers
20.8
Broncos
Avg Margin
7.2
Wests Tigers
-0.4
Broncos
Run Metres
1484
Wests Tigers
1244
Broncos
Line Breaks
3.0
Wests Tigers
1.0
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosTodd Smith
100 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Broncos have won 8 of 14 games (57%) — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 6 (17%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Wests Tigers).
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
ELO–Market Disagreement
Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1553 vs 1523), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.52).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: +2.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.