Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wests Tigers by 2.9 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (100 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 5 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
52%
Broncos
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wests Tigers a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Broncos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Wests Tigers counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 30-point ELO rating advantage (1553 vs 1523). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 2.9 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.52
Lost ✗
Edge
-10.4%
Line / Spread
Broncos +6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6W older → newer | 31.2 |
Broncos | R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L | 26.6 |
Avg Conceded
18.4
Wests Tigers
22.6
Broncos
Avg Margin
12.8
Wests Tigers
4.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1905
Wests Tigers
1732
Broncos
Line Breaks
6.2
Wests Tigers
4.2
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosTodd Smith
100 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Broncos have won 8 of 14 games (57%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 6 (17%). Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Wests Tigers).
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.3
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
ELO–Market Disagreement
Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1553 vs 1523), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.52).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: +2.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.