NRL | Round 7

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 10.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 48, within 0 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (41 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 57% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 59% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Warriors firmly in control (99%)

WAR28

99%80'1%

20TIT

← Titans momentumMomentum -44Warriors momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

88% none

WAR 6%No try 88%TIT 6%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

60%WarriorsFavourite

Warriors

60%

Titans

40%

✨

AI Match Overview

Warriors hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 163-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1385). Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Warriors by 10.4 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warriors to Win @1.32

Winner ✓

Edge

-12.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Titans +10.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Warriors 1-12 @2.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Warriors	R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6W older → newer	30.4
Titans	R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5L R2026-R6W	23.2

Avg Conceded

20.0

Warriors

19.6

Titans

Avg Margin

10.4

Warriors

3.6

Titans

Run Metres

1644

Warriors

1716

Titans

Line Breaks

4.4

Warriors

4.6

Titans

Referee Indicator

Favours Warriors

Wyatt Raymond

41 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)

Warriors

4W – 3L

57%

Titans

2W – 3L

40%

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 5 (40%). Games average 50.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Titans).

Avg Total

50.2 pts

Home Win %

59%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

9.4

Sin Bins / Gm

0.36

SB Away %

50%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.7

vs Away Teams4.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Warriors

-1.3

Titans

+1.5

Titans get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's -1.3.

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 3-2

Sep 2025NZL 32 - 18 GLD

Aug 2025NZL 16 - 24 GLD

Jun 2024NZL 6 - 66 GLD

Apr 2024NZL 24 - 27 GLD

Aug 2023NZL 28 - 18 GLD

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NZL

1547Overall1385

GLD

ELO difference: +163 in favour of Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1025Forwards853

NZL +172

1061Backs868

NZL +193

1064Halves850

NZL +215

1010Hooker909

NZL +100

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NZL

Stat

GLD

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

30.4pts

Avg Score

23.2pts

20.0pts

Avg Conceded

19.6pts

10.4pts

Avg Margin

3.6pts

1643.6m

Run Metres

1715.8m

4.4

Line Breaks

4.6

316.0

Tackles

339.8

10.2

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Warriors

Forward Pack12.0%

Warriors

Backline Quality10.0%

Warriors

Halves Control9.0%

Warriors

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Warriors

Referee Tendency7.0%

Warriors

Venue Advantage7.0%

Warriors

Model Confidence

60%

Warriors predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +10.4

4/4 match predictions correct3/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Leka HalasimaWarriors

forwardFair 1.202+ 54%

$1.96

+32.3% edge

Model

83%

Market

51%

Confidence

83%

Roger Tuivasa-SheckWarriors

backFair 1.592+ 26%

$2.10

+15.1% edge

Model

63%

Market

48%

Confidence

63%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 1.652+ 24%

$2.15

+14.1% edge

Model

61%

Market

47%

Confidence

61%

Sialetili FaeamaniTitans

backFair 1.742+ 21%

$2.30

+13.9% edge

Model

57%

Market

43%

Confidence

57%

Alofiana Khan-PereiraWarriors

backFair 1.332+ 41%

$1.61

+13.1% edge

Model

75%

Market

62%

Confidence

75%

AJ Brimson

backFair 2.262+ 12%

$3.15

+12.4% edge

Model

44%

Market

32%

Confidence

44%

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 2.402+ 10%

$3.00

+8.4% edge

Model

42%

Market

33%

Confidence

42%

Jojo FifitaTitans

backFair 3.862+ 4%

$2.70

-11.2% edge

Model

26%

Market

37%

Confidence

26%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Leka HalasimaWarriors

forwardFair 5.002+ 54%

$11.00

+10.9% edge

Model

20%

Market

Confidence

20%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 5.872+ 24%

$12.00

+8.7% edge

Model

17%

Market

Confidence

17%

Sialetili FaeamaniTitans

backFair 6.402+ 21%

$13.00

+7.9% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

AJ Brimson

backFair 9.352+ 12%

$15.00

+4.0% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 10.112+ 10%

$15.00

+3.2% edge

Model

10%

Market

Confidence

10%