# Warriors v Titans — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 28 – 20 Titans

_Warriors march past Titans._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 60% / Titans 40% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 18 Apr, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Alofiana Khan-Pereira (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (23' 1st Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (29'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (35'), Erin Clark (53') · Titans: Jojo Fifita (50' Tipped ⚡), Siale Faeamani (69' Tipped ⚡), Arama Hau (73'), Kurtis Morrin (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 60% | Won |
| Titans | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 18 Apr 2026, 04:55 pm_

Warriors 28–20 Titans in NRL Round 7 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-two nil at the break and Titans still found a way to make it interesting. That's the story of Warriors 28, Titans 20 at Go Media Stadium, and it says plenty about how flat the Titans started and how little they actually got away with once the comeback arrived.

Alofiana Khan-Pereira set the tone in the 5th minute, then did it again in the 22nd. Chanel Harris-Tavita made it three tries without reply in the 29th, and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak stretched it to 20-0 by the 34th. By half-time it was 22-0. At that point the Titans hadn't so much as troubled the board, and a 22-point deficit against a side completing at that rate was never going to be a five-minute fix.

Jojo Fifita got the Titans on the scoresheet in the 50th, and to their credit they didn't stop there. Erin Clark restored the 22-point buffer for the Warriors two minutes later, but Sialetili Faeamani, Arama Hau and Kurtis Morrin all crossed in the last twenty, dragging the margin back to single figures by full time. Four unanswered second-half tries from 22-0 down is a genuine push. It just started too far behind the count to matter.

The numbers explain why the Titans were never really in it before that late rally. Warriors completed at 87% to the Titans' 72%, and handled the ball with just 6 errors against 13. In a game that hinges on field position and phase count, that gap is the whole ball game. Warriors also had 44 tackle breaks to 25 and racked up 740 kicking metres to 587, so even with less overall possession, 49% to 51%, they were dictating where the ball actually got played.

Defensively it was one-way traffic for long stretches. The Titans missed 44 tackles to the Warriors' 25, and a line that leaky against a backline rated 1061 to 868 pre-match was always going to leak points. The Warriors' halves edge, 1064 to 850 coming in, showed up in exactly the way you'd expect: quick ball, go-forward, and four tries banked before the Titans had touched the football in attack for real.

Titans did find something after half-time, offloading 19 times to the Warriors' 8 and keeping the ball alive enough to string together three tries in the closing stages. It wasn't enough to threaten the result, but it turned a laugher into a cover for anyone with the Titans and the points.

Alphr's model had Warriors at 60% and picked the margin at 10.4, close enough to the final 8-point gap to call it a sharp read. The total score projection of 48 landed bang on the actual combined score. Model went 7 from 17 on this one, with the under on total points and the 1-12 margin band both paying off. Not everything clicked, but the shape of the game, Warriors dominant, Titans finding some late scraps, was exactly what the pre-match numbers pointed to.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 22 | 6 | 28 |
| Titans | 0 | 20 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,716** | Run metres | 1,671 |
| 521 | Post-contact metres | **538** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| 8 | Offloads | **19** |
| **86.2%** | Effective tackle % | 85.7% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **6** | Errors | 13 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **740** | Kick metres | 587 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 60% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Warriors by 10.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 48, within 0 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Titans covered the 10.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (41 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 57% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 59% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 29' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 34' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 50' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 52' Try — Erin Clark (Warriors) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 68' Try — Siale Faeamani (Titans) — 28-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 72' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 28-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 78' Try — Kurtis Morrin (Titans) — 28-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.32 (edge -12.4%) — model probability 59.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 10 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 60%, but Titans stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 163 ELO points clear, 1547 to 1385. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Titans.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 10.4, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-6 in 2026 Round 22.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 3rd against Titans 14th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.32 and Titans $3.42, with the line at Warriors -10.5 and the total at 49.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: home sides win 59% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 4 · Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 3rd · Titans 14th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.32 · Titans $3.42 |
| Line | Warriors -10.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 41 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Titans | 2W–3L | 40% |

Avg total: 50.2 pts · Home win %: 59% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 5 (40%). Games average 50.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Titans).

Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1643.6m | Run Metres | 1715.8m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 316.0 | Tackles | 339.8 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W | 30.4 |
| Titans | R2 L · R3 L · R4 W · R5 L · R6 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Titans | 6 – 42 | Warriors | Warriors 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R25 | Titans | 18 – 32 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2025 | R21 | Warriors | 16 – 24 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R16 | Titans | 66 – 6 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R8 | Warriors | 24 – 27 | Titans | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (3.17 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 10th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Ford, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Hau, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.17/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 3.17/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 1 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 2.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 175m/g | 185m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 89.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 596m/g | 708m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 16/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 77.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 5 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.74/g (lg 0.43) +72% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.57/g (lg 0.46) +24%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.43) +23% · Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.72) +18% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·3·2) | 5/15g | 22/37g | 44% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | CE | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 10/16g | 15/59g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 2 in 4g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/8g | 33% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 23' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 14/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 3/31g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (0·2·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 10/16g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 83% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 4/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 8% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Marata Niukore | RES | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 5/26g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Laban | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 10% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 3 in 6g | 8/10g (2·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 5/9g | 2/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Ilias | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 4 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·2) | 5/7g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Kurtis Morrin | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 1/3g | 30% | — | — |
| 14 | Oliver Pascoe | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 6g | 2/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 16 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Christensen | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1547 · Titans 1385 · ELO difference: 163 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1025 | 853 | Warriors +172 |
| Backs | 1061 | 868 | Warriors +193 |
| Halves | 1064 | 850 | Warriors +215 |
| Hooker | 1010 | 909 | Warriors +100 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Warriors predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r7-warriors-v-titans
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-18 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)