Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. Roosters trailed 12–24 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 38–24. The model went 5/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (380 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 59% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee. 75% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
60%
Knights
40%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 120-point ELO rating advantage (1563 vs 1443). The margin model predicts Roosters by 8.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.29
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.7%
Line / Spread
Knights +11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R6W older → newer | 23.0 |
Knights | R2026-R2W R2026-R3L R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.6
Roosters
24.8
Knights
Avg Margin
-4.6
Roosters
0.4
Knights
Run Metres
1762
Roosters
1670
Knights
Line Breaks
4.8
Roosters
4.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAshley Klein
380 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 41 of 69 games (59%), significantly stronger than Knights's 16 from 40 (40%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
1.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.13
SB Away %
75%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 1.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Roosters predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +8.7
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.