# Roosters v Knights — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 38 – 24 Knights

_Roosters fight back to strut past Knights from 12 down._

Half time: 12 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 60% / Knights 40% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 19 Apr, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Siua Wong (2' 1st), Hugo Savala (14' Tipped ⚡), Sam Walker (43'), Hugo Savala (50' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (56' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (61' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (68' Tipped ⚡) · Knights: Fletcher Hunt (9' Tipped ⚡), Trey Mooney (17'), Fletcher Hunt (21' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Hunt (28' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 60% | Won |
| Knights | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 19 Apr 2026, 03:54 pm_

Roosters 38–24 Knights in NRL Round 7 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fletcher Hunt scored three times inside the first 27 minutes and had the Knights up 24-12 at half-time. By full time the Roosters had scored six unanswered tries and won 38-24. That's the shape of this one: a game the Knights led for the best part of an hour before the Roosters ran over the top of them in the second half.

The early exchanges were tight. Siua Wong opened the scoring inside two minutes, Hunt hit back for the Knights at the 9th minute, and it stayed close through Hugo Savala's try in the 13th and Trey Mooney's response in the 17th. Then Hunt crossed twice more either side of the 20-minute mark, at the 20th and the 27th, and the Knights turned a 10-6 deficit into a 24-12 lead they took into the sheds.

Whatever was said at the break worked. Sam Walker scored early in the second half to make it 16-24, Savala grabbed his second in the 50th minute to close the gap to two points, and James Tedesco put the Roosters in front for the first time in the 55th minute. Mark Nawaqanitawase then finished it off with a double either side of the hour mark, in the 60th and 68th, and a four-try Knights lead turned into a 14-point Roosters win.

The stat sheet explains why the tide turned when it did. The Roosters ran for 1,864 metres to the Knights' 1,243, and 590 of that came after contact against just 312 for the Knights. That's a side that kept getting over the advantage line and dragging defenders backwards, and it shows up again in the tackle break count: 49 to 16. Line breaks went 6-4 the Roosters' way too, which lines up with a Knights forward pack and hooker rated well below their opposite numbers coming in: 938 to 1,059 up front and 937 to 1,102 at hooker.

Where the Knights actually won the arm wrestle was in ball control. They completed at 86% to the Roosters' 75%, coughed up only 8 errors to the Roosters' 16, and controlled the boot with 651 kick metres to 453. On another day that sort of discipline holds up a lead. It didn't here, because the Knights' defence couldn't hold the line when it mattered, missing 49 tackles to the Roosters' 16, with an effective tackle rate of 84.1% against 89.7% telling the same story from a different angle.

Alphr's model had the Roosters as 1563-rated favourites against the Knights' 1443, good for a 60% win probability and a predicted margin of 8.7 in a game it pegged for 45 points combined. The result landed as a 14-point margin in a 62-point shootout, so the model got the winner right but was well under on how much this one would swing, and well under on how high-scoring it would get.

Form coming in made the twist believable rather than freakish. The Knights had averaged 25.2 points a game across their last five to the Roosters' 23, and carried a positive average margin of 0.4 against the Roosters' minus-4.6. Both sides had won three of their last five, so neither was flying and neither was faltering. What separated them on the night wasn't the ledger heading in, it was who could turn field position into points once the ball was in dispute, and for an hour that was Newcastle. After that, it was the Roosters, comfortably.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12 | 26 | 38 |
| Knights | 24 | 0 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| 75% | Completion rate | **86%** |
| **1,864** | Run metres | 1,243 |
| **590** | Post-contact metres | 312 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **49** | Tackle breaks | 16 |
| 11 | Offloads | 11 |
| **89.7%** | Effective tackle % | 84.1% |
| **16** | Missed tackles | 49 |
| 16 | Errors | **8** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 453 | Kick metres | **651** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. Roosters trailed 12–24 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 38–24. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (380 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 59% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Siua Wong (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 17' Try — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 43' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 50' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 22-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 28-24 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 60' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 34-24 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 68' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 38-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.29 (edge -13.7%) — model probability 60.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 9 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 60%, but Knights stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 120 ELO points clear, 1563 to 1443.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 31.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 8th against Knights 5th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.29 and Knights $3.62, with the line at Roosters -11.5 and the total at 52.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 9 · Knights 1 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 19-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters at home | 10-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 8th · Knights 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.29 · Knights $3.62 |
| Line | Roosters -11.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 380 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 41W–28L | 59% |
| Knights | 16W–24L | 40% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 41 of 69 games (59%), significantly stronger than Knights's 16 from 40 (40%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Knights get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 27.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| -4.6pts | Avg Margin | 0.4pts |
| 1762.0m | Run Metres | 1670.2m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 326.8 | Tackles | 347.4 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R1 L · R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R6 W | 23.0 |
| Knights | R2 W · R3 L · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Roosters | 19 – 18 | Knights | Roosters 69% ✓ |
| 2026 | R21 | Knights | 22 – 23 | Roosters | Roosters 55% ✓ |
| 2025 | R15 | Knights | 8 – 12 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights | 20 – 22 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights | 16 – 18 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 15th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Cherry-Evans, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 16th there (2.4 conceded/game). Key man: Hunt, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.4/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.17/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.4/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.83/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.33/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 172m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 84.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 16 | 19 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 766m/g | 728m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22/g | 22.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 2 | 3 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 532m/g | 515m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.21) +57% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.27) +56% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 26/50g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 56' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (2·3·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 13/16g | 73/100g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/9g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 16% ✓ Scored | 🏉 14' 50' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 3 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 3 in 5g | 11/10g (0·0·4·3·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 11/12g | 53% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' 68' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 3/21g | 4/24g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 7/21g | 18% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 8/31g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 7/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/44g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/29g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/10g | 3% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 2 in 4g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 55% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 6g | 10/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·3·2·1) | 3/3g | 16/14g | 58% | — | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/22g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 23% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' 21' 28' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 5 in 6g | 7/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 13% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Hopwood | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1563 · Knights 1443 · ELO difference: 120 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1059 | 938 | Roosters +121 |
| Backs | 1044 | 976 | Roosters +69 |
| Halves | 1047 | 960 | Roosters +88 |
| Hooker | 1102 | 937 | Roosters +165 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Roosters predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-19 05:54 UTC (latest tip update)