# Raiders v Storm — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 26 – 22 Storm

_Raiders hit back to raid Storm._

Half time: 12 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 46% / Storm 54% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Fri, 17 Apr, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Simi Sasagi (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Corey Horsburgh (8'), Ethan Strange (44'), Matthew Timoko (51') · Storm: Sualauvi Faalogo (11'), Will Warbrick (15' Tipped ⚡), Nick Meaney (26' Tipped ⚡), Nick Meaney (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 54% | Lost |
| Raiders | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 17 Apr 2026, 07:55 pm_

Raiders 26–22 Storm in NRL Round 7 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm did plenty right for a half. Sualauvi Faalogo, Will Warbrick and a first Nick Meaney try put them 16-12 up at the break, and on paper it fit: they came in rated stronger everywhere, forwards 987 to 966, backs 1025 to 944, halves 967 to 920, hooker 1014 to 914, and the model had them favourites by 3.9 points. For half an hour, the rating gap looked right.

Then the ball started falling out of their hands. Storm finished with 13 errors to the Raiders' 6, and completed at just 67 per cent against 86. That is not a small gap, that is a side that couldn't hold possession long enough to use the class in their spine.

Defensively it was worse. Storm missed 37 tackles to the Raiders' 24, effective tackling at 87.0 per cent against 88.6, and conceded double the penalties, 6 to 3. A team with that much talent in the pack and backline still leaks points if the front line keeps falling off. It did.

Meaney crossed again at 73' to get Storm within 26-20, proof they never stopped competing, but by then the Raiders had banked too much go-forward. Canberra ran for 1,813 metres to 1,716 and turned 628 of that into post-contact yardage, nearly 150 more than Storm's 494. Add 37 tackle breaks to Storm's 24 and 13 offloads to 8, and you've got a forward effort that kept finding the extra metre after the first man missed.

That's where the Raiders won it. Corey Horsburgh's try in the 8th minute had them out to a 10-0 lead before Storm even settled, then Faalogo, Warbrick and Meaney hauled them back in front by half-time. The second half belonged to Canberra: Ethan Strange levelled it at 16-16 in the 44th minute, Matthew Timoko put them 20-16 up six minutes later, and from there the Raiders' 53 per cent possession and 732 kicking metres did the rest, pinning Storm deep and making them work for every metre back.

Final score: Raiders 26, Storm 22. Seven line breaks to six, 24 missed tackles to 37, and 6 errors to 13 tell the same story from different angles: Canberra held the ball better and hit harder when they had it.

The read going in leaned Storm, and by form and rating that made sense, Melbourne averaging 21.6 points a game to Canberra's 17.2 across the last five.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Storm | 16 | 6 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,813** | Run metres | 1,716 |
| **628** | Post-contact metres | 494 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **88.6%** | Effective tackle % | 87.0% |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **6** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **732** | Kick metres | 476 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 54% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. Raiders trailed 12–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 26–22. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (178 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Raiders bucked the trend, Storm historically win 75% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 8' Try — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 11' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 25' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 44' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 50' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 20-16 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 73' Try — Nick Meaney (Storm) — 26-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.75 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 53.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 54%, but Raiders stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 73 ELO points clear, 1506 to 1433.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 42-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 15th against Storm 13th.

The market has Storm favourites, Raiders $2.10 and Storm $1.75, with the line at Raiders +2.5 and the total at 48.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 15th · Storm 13th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Raiders $2.10 · Storm $1.75 |
| Line | Raiders +2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Peter Gough** — 178 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 8W–9L | 47% |
| Storm | 12W–4L | 75% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 12 of 16 games (75%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 8 from 17 (47%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Raiders get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Storm's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 30.8pts |
| -13.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1647.2m | Run Metres | 1501.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 369.6 | Tackles | 343.2 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 8.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 W | 17.2 |
| Storm | R2 W · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Storm | 42 – 20 | Raiders | Storm 73% ✓ |
| 2025 | R9 | Storm | 18 – 20 | Raiders | not priced |
| 2024 | R17 | Storm | 16 – 6 | Raiders | not priced |
| 2023 | R24 | Storm | 48 – 2 | Raiders | not priced |
| 2022 | R26 | Storm | 20 – 28 | Raiders | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 11th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 11th) | 1.83/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 7 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 263m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 83.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 16 | 20 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 784m/g | 648m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 23.7/g | 16.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 77.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 4 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 478m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 92.4% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.25) +10% · Centres 0.65/g (lg 0.72) -10% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.09) -22%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.72) +39% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 2/4g | 13/27g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sebastian Kris | WG | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 21/53g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 4/21g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 18/51g | 20% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/11g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 2 in 6g | 8/10g (3·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 10/24g | 40% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/24g | 30/134g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 6/60g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 10/97g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/9g | 25/64g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | INT | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/48g | 10% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 7/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/35g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 8 in 6g | 11/10g (0·2·0·1·2·3·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 51% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 6 in 6g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·4·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | WG | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' 74' |
| 5 | Manaia Waitere | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 0/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | RES | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1433 · Storm 1506 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 966 | 987 | Storm +21 |
| Backs | 944 | 1025 | Storm +81 |
| Halves | 920 | 967 | Storm +47 |
| Hooker | 914 | 1014 | Storm +100 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Storm predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r7-raiders-v-storm
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-04-17 09:55 UTC (latest tip update)