# Rabbitohs v Dragons — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 30 – 12 Dragons

_Rabbitohs burrow past Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 62% / Dragons 38% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 18 Apr, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Latrell Mitchell (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (30' 1st Tipped ⚡), Alex Johnston (39' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Dufty (46' Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (70' 1st Tipped ⚡), Latrell Mitchell (74' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Damien Cook (21'), Hamish Stewart (27')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 62% | Won |
| Dragons | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 18 Apr 2026, 07:20 pm_

Rabbitohs 30–12 Dragons in NRL Round 7 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four tries from one man will do it every time: Latrell Mitchell crossed four times as Rabbitohs put away Dragons 30-12 at Accor Stadium.

Mitchell opened the scoring inside five minutes and was still finding the line in the 74th, a personal haul that outscored the entire Dragons side on his own. In between, Alex Johnston and Matthew Dufty chipped in tries of their own, while Dragons had to make do with Damien Cook and Hamish Stewart.

The scoreboard took its time to settle. Dragons hit back through Cook in the 20th and Stewart in the 27th to lead 12-10, and for a passage either side of half-time this had the shape of a genuine contest. Mitchell's second try on the stroke of half-time put Rabbitohs back in front 10-12 before the break arrived with the hosts up 16-12, Dragons still very much alive despite playing a man light after Peter Mamouzelos was sin-binned in the 36th.

Whatever margin for error Dragons had evaporated after the restart. Johnston's try in the 38th and Dufty's in the 46th pushed the lead to 20-12, and Mitchell's third and fourth in the 70th and 74th turned a contest into a rout. Once Rabbitohs found the extra gear, Dragons had nothing left to answer with.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Rabbitohs ran for 2,029 metres to 1,513 and broke the line seven times to five, but the real separator was what happened after contact: 661 post-contact metres to 474, and 32 tackle breaks against 22. That is a forward pack asserting itself, and it lines up with the pre-match numbers, Rabbitohs rated well ahead up front at 954 to 794 and even further clear in the halves, 922 to 755.

Dragons will point to their kicking game, 659 metres to 574, and their surprisingly better tackle efficiency at 90.7% to 85.9%. Neither mattered much when the ball was in Rabbitohs hands, because Dragons simply couldn't hang onto their own, missing 32 tackles to Rabbitohs' 22 and coughing up 10 errors to six. Fifteen offloads to three suggests Dragons tried to play some footy in patches, but tries need completions, and Rabbitohs finished at 85% to their 76%.

Form lines told this story well before kick-off. Dragons arrived on a five-game losing streak, averaging just 14.4 points a game and conceding 31.6, while Rabbitohs had won three of their last five and were scoring at nearly 29 a game. Alphr's model made Rabbitohs favourites at 62%, rating them 1458 to 1256 and tipping a 9.5-point win in a game projected to finish under 50 total points.

The lean under (51.5) landed, with the final total sitting at 42. The margin call undershot reality by a fair way, Rabbitohs winning by 18 rather than the predicted 9.5, mostly because nobody had four Latrell Mitchell tries in the model. Fair enough. The model went 4 from 17 on the finer detail of this one, proof that picking the winner is the easy part.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| Dragons | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **2,029** | Run metres | 1,513 |
| **661** | Post-contact metres | 474 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 22 |
| 3 | Offloads | **15** |
| 85.9% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| **6** | Errors | 10 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **7** |
| 574 | Kick metres | **659** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Rabbitohs led 16–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (73 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 83% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 20' Try — Damien Cook (Dragons) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 36' Sin Bin — Peter Mamouzelos (Rabbitohs) — 10-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 38' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 46' Try — Matthew Dufty (Rabbitohs) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 70' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 74' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.22 (edge -15.8%) — model probability 61.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 10 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 62%, but Dragons stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 202 ELO points clear, 1458 to 1256. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 30-12 in 2026 Round 7.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 6th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.22 and Dragons $4.25, with the line at Rabbitohs -13.5 and the total at 51.5.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 7 · Dragons 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 30-12 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 6th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 100% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.22 · Dragons $4.25 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -13.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 73 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 5W–1L | 83% |
| Dragons | 6W–6L | 50% |

Avg total: 41.4 pts · Home win %: 45% · Home bias: Leans away

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Rabbitohs have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 6 from 12 (50%). Small sample (6 games for Rabbitohs).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 14.4pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 2.4pts | Avg Margin | -17.2pts |
| 1645.6m | Run Metres | 1726.2m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 298.4 | Tackles | 371.8 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R1 W · R2 L · R3 W · R5 W · R6 L | 28.8 |
| Dragons | R2 L · R3 L · R4 L · R5 L · R6 L | 14.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 40 – 0 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R2 | Dragons | 24 – 25 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R10 | Dragons | 28 – 14 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 14 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R15 | Dragons | 36 – 30 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Leilua, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.4/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.8/g (def 9th) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 8th) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 118m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 13 | 8 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 629m/g | 708m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 12.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 76.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 4 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 673m/g | 581m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 6.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.21) +48% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.43) +37% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.51/g (lg 0.27) +89% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.43) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 10/15g | 90/91g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.34 AI 62% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 6 in 5g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·1) | 12/10g | 27/45g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 30' 70' 74' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/16g | 6/21g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 8/12g | 25/55g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 9/16g | 34/91g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamie Humphreys | HB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 5/63g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 11/48g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 5/21g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 16/67g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Bronson Garlick | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jayden Sullivan | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyrell Sloan | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 0 in 4g | 4/10g (1·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 6g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 5/11g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Setu Tu | WG | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/19g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 15/89g | 8% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/22g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1458 · Dragons 1256 · ELO difference: 202 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 954 | 794 | Rabbitohs +161 |
| Backs | 935 | 755 | Rabbitohs +179 |
| Halves | 922 | 755 | Rabbitohs +167 |
| Hooker | 939 | 717 | Rabbitohs +221 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-18 09:20 UTC (latest tip update)