Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Rabbitohs led 16–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (73 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 83% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 15.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 82% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
62%
Dragons
38%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Rabbitohs ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Rabbitohs carry a 202-point ELO rating advantage (1458 vs 1256). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 9.5 points with a combined total of 50.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-15.8%
Line / Spread
Dragons +13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L older → newer | 28.8 |
Dragons | R2026-R2L R2026-R3L R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6L | 14.4 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Rabbitohs
31.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
2.4
Rabbitohs
-17.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1646
Rabbitohs
1726
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.6
Rabbitohs
3.6
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsZiggy Przeklasa-Adamski
73 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Rabbitohs have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 6 from 12 (50%). Small sample (6 games for Rabbitohs).
Avg Total
41.4 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
Pen / Game
15.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.57
SB Away %
82%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 15.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 7 against home vs 8.4 against away. Dragons get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Rabbitohs's -1.7. 82% of his 17 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 50 · Line: +9.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.