NRL | Round 7

alphr.com.au

Sun 19 Apr4:05pm

PARPAR

CBYCBY

PAR

Eels

CBY

Bulldogs

COMMBANK STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 19 APR, 4:05 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Eels defied the model's 64% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.5 but the actual margin was 18 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 13 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Eels have a 60% win rate under this referee. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Eels firmly in control (99%)

EEL38

99%80'1%

20BUL

← Bulldogs momentumMomentum -5Eels momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

87% none

EEL 7%No try 87%BUL 6%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

64%BulldogsFavourite

Eels

36%

Bulldogs

64%

✨

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 125-point ELO rating advantage (1501 vs 1376). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.5 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.21

Lost ✗

Edge

-14.6%

✗

Line / Spread

Eels +13.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Eels	R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6L older → newer	24.0
Bulldogs	R2026-R1W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L R2026-R6W	20.2

Avg Conceded

34.8

Eels

19.2

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

-10.8

Eels

1.0

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1607

Eels

1906

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

4.2

Eels

5.2

Bulldogs

Referee Indicator

Favours Eels

Liam Kennedy

60 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)

Eels

6W – 4L

60%

Bulldogs

2W – 4L

33%

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 6 of 10 games (60%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 2 from 6 (33%). Small sample (6 games for Bulldogs).

Avg Total

45.3 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.0

Sin Bins / Gm

0.34

SB Away %

70%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.8

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Eels

-3.0

Bulldogs

+1.5

Bulldogs get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Eels's -3.0. 70% of his 10 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Bulldogs lead 3-2

Jun 2025PAR 12 - 30 CBY

Mar 2025PAR 8 - 16 CBY

Jun 2024PAR 18 - 22 CBY

Mar 2024PAR 26 - 8 CBY

Jun 2023PAR 34 - 12 CBY

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PAR

1376Overall1501

CBY

ELO difference: -125 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

875Forwards1029

CBY +154

850Backs996

CBY +146

899Halves1026

CBY +127

906Hooker1021

CBY +115

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PAR

Stat

CBY

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

24.0pts

Avg Score

20.2pts

34.8pts

Avg Conceded

19.2pts

-10.8pts

Avg Margin

1.0pts

1606.6m

Run Metres

1906.4m

4.2

Line Breaks

5.2

336.0

Tackles

354.6

10.8

Errors

11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Bulldogs

Forward Pack12.0%

Bulldogs

Backline Quality10.0%

Bulldogs

Halves Control9.0%

Bulldogs

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Bulldogs

Referee Tendency7.0%

Eels

Venue Advantage7.0%

Eels

Model Confidence

64%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -6.5

1/4 match predictions correct5/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 1.232+ 50%

$1.84

+26.9% edge

Model

81%

Market

54%

Confidence

81%

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 1.322+ 41%

$2.03

+26.6% edge

Model

76%

Market

49%

Confidence

76%

Brian KellyEels

backFair 1.842+ 19%

$2.70

+17.3% edge

Model

54%

Market

37%

Confidence

54%

Sean Russell

backFair 2.612+ 9%

$2.65

+0.6% edge

Model

38%

Market

38%

Confidence

38%

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 1.512+ 30%

$1.48

-1.4% edge

Model

66%

Market

68%

Confidence

66%

Will PenisiniEels

backFair 3.302+ 5%

$2.90

-4.2% edge

Model

30%

Market

34%

Confidence

30%

Bronson XerriBulldogs

backFair 3.052+ 6%

$2.40

-8.9% edge

Model

33%

Market

42%

Confidence

33%

Marcelo MontoyaBulldogs

backFair 2.842+ 7%

$1.83

-19.4% edge

Model

35%

Market

55%

Confidence

35%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 3.552+ 50%

$10.00

+18.1% edge

Model

28%

Market

10%

Confidence

28%

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 4.472+ 41%

$10.00

+12.4% edge

Model

22%

Market

10%

Confidence

22%

Brian KellyEels

backFair 7.572+ 19%

$14.00

+6.1% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 5.852+ 30%

$7.00

+2.8% edge

Model

17%

Market

14%

Confidence

17%

Sean Russell

backFair 12.272+ 9%

$14.00

+1.0% edge

Model

Market

Confidence