# Dolphins v Panthers — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 22 – 23 Panthers

_Panthers pip Dolphins by a point._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 36% / Panthers 64% · TIO Stadium, Darwin · Fri, 17 Apr, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (45' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (51' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (54'), Jake Averillo (61' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Dylan Edwards (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Blaize Talagi (20'), Thomas Jenkins (39' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 64% | Won |
| Dolphins | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.2 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 17 Apr 2026, 11:01 pm_

Dolphins 22–23 Panthers in NRL Round 7 at TIO Stadium, Darwin. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-four missed tackles. That's what the Dolphins put down over 80 minutes, nearly double the Panthers's 23, and it's as good an explanation as any for how the Panthers walked out of TIO Stadium with a 23-22 win, sealed by Nathan Cleary's field goal in the 84th minute.

The Dolphins had no right to be in the contest at half-time. Panthers led 18-0 at the break, built off tries to Dylan Edwards in the 12th minute, Blaize Talagi in the 19th and Thomas Jenkins right on the stroke of half-time in the 38th. A Kodi Nikorima sin bin in the 17th minute only made the hole deeper. On the numbers going in, none of that looked like a fluke. Panthers rated stronger across forwards (1196 to 917), backs (1153 to 964), halves (1157 to 919) and hooker (1194 to 963), and Alphr's model had them favoured by 12.2 points at 64% to win.

Then the second half flipped it. Herbie Farnworth got the Dolphins on the board in the 45th minute, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow followed in the 51st, Selwyn Cobbo in the 54th, and by the 60th minute Jake Averillo's try had the home side up 22-18. It was 22 unanswered points in barely a quarter of an hour. Thomas Jenkins's second try in the 75th levelled it at 22-22, and Cleary's one-pointer nine minutes later was the difference.

The stat sheet backs up how the Dolphins clawed all that back. They completed at 80% to the Panthers's 74%, ran for 2,182 metres to 1,898, and made 748 post-contact metres to 619. They broke the line six times to five and finished with 44 tackle breaks against 23, numbers well beyond what an 917-rated forward pack suggested pre-match. Errors were close, 13 to 14, so it wasn't as if the Dolphins were careless with the ball. If anything, they were the tidier side.

Where it fell apart was defence.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 22 | 22 |
| Panthers | 18 | 5 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **2,182** | Run metres | 1,898 |
| **748** | Post-contact metres | 619 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| 10 | Offloads | **11** |
| **90.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.1% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **13** | Errors | 14 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 612 | Kick metres | **691** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 12.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 8/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 14.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (289 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Panthers have a 69% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Sin Bin — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 19' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 45' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 4-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 51' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 54' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 22-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 75' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 22-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 84' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 22-23 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.18 (edge -16.6%) — model probability 64.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 12 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 64%, but Dolphins stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 227 ELO points clear, 1675 to 1447. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 12.2, with the two sides combining for about 53. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 23-22 in 2026 Round 7.

Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 12th against Panthers 1st.

The market has Panthers favourites, Dolphins $4.90 and Panthers $1.18, with the line at Dolphins +14.5 and the total at 52.5.

Dolphins come in fresher, 16 days between games against 9.

Adam Gee has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Dolphins 1 · Panthers 3 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 23-22 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 12th · Panthers 1st |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Dolphins $4.90 · Panthers $1.18 |
| Line | Dolphins +14.5 · total 52.5 |
| Rest gap | Dolphins 16d · Panthers 9d |
| Referee | Adam Gee |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Adam Gee** — 289 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 4W–8L | 33% |
| Panthers | 27W–12L | 69% |

Avg total: 42.7 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 27 of 39 games (69%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 12 (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Panthers get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 36.0pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | 21.6pts |
| 1771.6m | Run Metres | 1743.0m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 374.0 | Tackles | 324.2 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R1 L · R2 W · R3 W · R4 L · R5 L | 23.2 |
| Panthers | R2 W · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 L | 36.0 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Panthers lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R6 | Dolphins | 30 – 12 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R20 | Panthers | 28 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R20 | Dolphins | 14 – 24 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Averillo, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 11th) | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.83/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 3 | 4 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 167m/g | 201m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.4% | 86.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 16 | 26 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 887m/g | 791m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18/g | 20.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 2 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 504m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.5/g (lg 0.46) +9% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.43) -23%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.09) +22% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·0·1·3·1·1·1·0·2) | 9/8g | 1/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Flegler | INT | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 5 in 6g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 14 in 6g | 15/10g (0·0·1·0·2·2·4·2·2·2) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.29 AI 71% ✓ Scored | 🏉 39' 76' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·3·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Izack Tago | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | Replacement | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Kalani Leuluai-Going | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1447 · Panthers 1675 · ELO difference: 227 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 917 | 1196 | Panthers +279 |
| Backs | 964 | 1153 | Panthers +188 |
| Halves | 919 | 1157 | Panthers +237 |
| Hooker | 963 | 1194 | Panthers +231 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Panthers predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-17 13:01 UTC (latest tip update)