NRL | Round 7

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 12.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 8/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (289 career games). The 45-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Panthers have a 69% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 14 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

85', Panthers firmly in control (99%)

DOL22

1%85'99%

23PAN

← Panthers momentumMomentum +0Dolphins momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

87% none

DOL 6%No try 87%PAN 7%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

64%PanthersFavourite

Dolphins

36%

Panthers

64%

✨

AI Match Overview

Panthers hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 227-point ELO rating advantage (1675 vs 1447). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Panthers by 12.2 points with a combined total of 53.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.18

Winner ✓

Edge

-16.6%

✓

Line / Spread

Dolphins +14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Panthers 1-12 @2.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Total Points

Over 52.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Dolphins	R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4L R2026-R5L older → newer	23.2
Panthers	R2026-R2W R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6L	36.0

Avg Conceded

28.4

Dolphins

14.4

Panthers

Avg Margin

-5.2

Dolphins

21.6

Panthers

Run Metres

1772

Dolphins

1743

Panthers

Line Breaks

3.8

Dolphins

6.6

Panthers

Referee Indicator

Favours Panthers

Adam Gee

289 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)

Dolphins

4W – 8L

33%

Panthers

27W – 12L

69%

When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 27 of 39 games (69%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 12 (33%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

14.0

Sin Bins / Gm

0.13

SB Away %

25%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.5

vs Away Teams7.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Dolphins

+0.0

Panthers

+0.6

Adam Gee averages 14 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.5 against home vs 7.6 against away. Panthers get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's +0.0.

H2H History (Last 3)Panthers lead 2-1

Apr 2025DOL 30 - 12 PEN

Jul 2024DOL 26 - 28 PEN

Jul 2023DOL 14 - 24 PEN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL

1447Overall1675

PEN

ELO difference: -227 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

917Forwards1196

PEN +279

964Backs1153

PEN +188

919Halves1157

PEN +237

963Hooker1194

PEN +231

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL

Stat

PEN

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

23.2pts

Avg Score

36.0pts

28.4pts

Avg Conceded

14.4pts

-5.2pts

Avg Margin

21.6pts

1771.6m

Run Metres

1743.0m

3.8

Line Breaks

6.6

374.0

Tackles

324.2

12.6

Errors

10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Panthers

Forward Pack12.0%

Panthers

Backline Quality10.0%

Panthers

Halves Control9.0%

Panthers

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Panthers

Referee Tendency7.0%

Dolphins

Venue Advantage7.0%

Dolphins

Model Confidence

64%

Panthers predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 53 · Line: -12.2

3/4 match predictions correct5/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Paul AlamotiPanthers

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$2.20

+41.0% edge

Model

86%

Market

45%

Confidence

86%

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowDolphins

backFair 1.402+ 35%

$1.97

+20.4% edge

Model

71%

Market

51%

Confidence

71%

Jake AverilloDolphins

backFair 1.932+ 17%

$3.05

+19.1% edge

Model

52%

Market

33%

Confidence

52%

Herbie FarnworthDolphins

backFair 2.032+ 15%

$2.75

+12.9% edge

Model

49%

Market

36%

Confidence

49%

Brian To'oPanthers

backFair 1.592+ 26%

$1.55

-1.4% edge

Model

63%

Market

65%

Confidence

63%

Thomas JenkinsPanthers

backFair 1.412+ 35%

$1.29

-6.4% edge

Model

71%

Market

78%

Confidence

71%

Jamayne IsaakoDolphins

backFair 2.892+ 7%

$2.35

-7.9% edge

Model

35%

Market

43%

Confidence

35%

Dylan EdwardsPanthers

backFair 2.502+ 9%

$1.93

-11.8% edge

Model

40%

Market

52%

Confidence

40%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Paul AlamotiPanthers

backFair 4.152+ 59%

$13.00

+16.4% edge

Model

24%

Market

Confidence

24%

Hamiso Tabuai-FidowDolphins

backFair 5.202+ 35%

$11.00

+10.1% edge

Model

19%

Market

Confidence

19%

Jake AverilloDolphins

backFair 8.832+ 17%

$15.00

+4.7% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Herbie FarnworthDolphins

backFair 9.522+ 15%

$15.00

+3.8% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Brian To'oPanthers

backFair 8.332+ 26%

$8.00

-0.5% edge

Model

12%

Market

13%

Confidence

12%