# Cowboys v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 7 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 6 – 38 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles swoop on Cowboys._

Half time: 6 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 59% / Sea Eagles 41% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Thu, 16 Apr, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Coen Hess (21') · Sea Eagles: Lehi Hopoate (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Lehi Hopoate (17' 1st Tipped 🎯), Ben Trbojevic (28'), Brandon Wakeham (36'), Taniela Paseka (65'), Luke Brooks (67')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 59% | Lost |
| Sea Eagles | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 7 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 15 Apr 2026, 09:24 am · Last updated: 16 Apr 2026, 09:50 pm_

Cowboys 6–38 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 7 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Cowboys favourites here, 59% to win and expected to get up by 5.6 points. The Sea Eagles won by 32. That's not a near miss, that's the model getting the shape of the whole match wrong.

The scoreline was 38-6, and it was 6-22 at half-time, so the damage was mostly done well before the hooter. Lehi Hopoate crossed twice inside the first 16 minutes, the second making it 0-8 before Cowboys had managed a touch of the ball worth talking about. Coen Hess got the home side on the board in the 21st minute, but Ben Trbojevic answered six minutes later and Brandon Wakeham added another in the 36th to push it to 6-20 heading into the break. One try in the opening 40 was never going to be enough.

The completion numbers tell you why the Cowboys never got parity. Manly finished at 77%, Cowboys down at 58%, and that gap shows up directly in the 17 errors the home side coughed up against 11. You can't build pressure conceding ball at that rate, and the Sea Eagles made the most of every extra set, running for 1,962 metres to the Cowboys' 1,665 and grinding out 700 post-contact metres to 488.

Line breaks went the same way, five to three, and with 55% of the ball Manly simply had more opportunities to use it. The Cowboys did hold an edge in effective tackling, 90.0% to 86.5%, and gave away fewer penalties, four to six. Discipline wasn't the problem. Execution with the football was.

The second half was academic more than dramatic. Taniela Paseka scored in the 64th minute and Luke Brooks followed two minutes later to blow it out to 6-34, before the final margin settled at 32. Kick metres summed it up neatly too: Manly controlled territory at 708 to the Cowboys' 322, which meant Townsville spent long stretches of the second half starting from deep in their own end.

What makes this one interesting from a form perspective is that it runs against both sides' recent trend. Cowboys came in on a four-game winning streak, Sea Eagles on a two-from-five run with three losses on the trot before back-to-back wins. The ratings had Cowboys stronger in the backs, 993 to 980, and the halves, 981 to 939. None of that showed up. Manly's forward pack and hooker edges, 970 to 958 and 987 to 954, were the ones that actually mattered on the day, and that's usually where tough away wins like this get built.

The model called the total almost dead on, tipping 44 and landing on 44 exact. The margin call is where it fell over, and fell over badly. Three from seventeen for the match overall. Some days the ratings and the actual footy just don't want to agree, and this was one of them.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Sea Eagles | 22 | 16 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 58% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,665 | Run metres | **1,962** |
| 488 | Post-contact metres | **700** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **90.0%** | Effective tackle % | 86.5% |
| 33 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 17 | Errors | **11** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 322 | Kick metres | **708** |

**Model Report Card**

Sea Eagles defied the model's 59% prediction for Cowboys, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. Sea Eagles led 6–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (361 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 55% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 21' Try — Coen Hess (Cowboys) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 36' Try — Brandon Wakeham (Sea Eagles) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 64' Try — Taniela Paseka (Sea Eagles) — 6-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Luke Brooks (Sea Eagles) — 6-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.59 (edge -1.2%) — model probability 58.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 59%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 41%. Form leans Cowboys' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Sea Eagles.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Cowboys by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 19.

Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 4th against Sea Eagles 10th.

The market has Cowboys favourites, Cowboys $1.59 and Sea Eagles $2.36, with the line at Cowboys -4.5 and the total at 53.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 3 · Sea Eagles 7 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 19-18 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys at home | 7-5 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 4th · Sea Eagles 10th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Cowboys $1.59 · Sea Eagles $2.36 |
| Line | Cowboys -4.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Gerard Sutton** — 361 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 27W–22L | 55% |
| Sea Eagles | 21W–23L | 48% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Cowboys hold a 7-point edge: 27W–22L (55%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–23L (48%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.2pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 5.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1917.4m | Run Metres | 1704.4m |
| 7.2 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 312.2 | Tackles | 330.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R2 L · R3 W · R4 W · R5 W · R6 W | 28.2 |
| Sea Eagles | R1 L · R2 L · R4 L · R5 W · R6 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 18 – 19 | Cowboys | Sea Eagles 71% ✗ |
| 2025 | R11 | Cowboys | 6 – 24 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2025 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 42 – 12 | Cowboys | not priced |
| 2024 | R18 | Cowboys | 20 – 21 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2023 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 8 – 19 | Cowboys | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 13th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 10th there (1.83 conceded/game). Key man: Trbojevic, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.83/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.83/g (def 10th) | 2.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th) | 0.8/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 3 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 81.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 13 | 15 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 840m/g | 790m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 75.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 5 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 540m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 10/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.25) +8% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 23/70g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 4 in 5g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 5/11g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.66 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 8/20g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Zac Laybutt | WG | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 11/30g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 22/54g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Coen Hess | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 7/53g | 6% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 9 | Soni Luke | HK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/53g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 9/31g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai O'Donnell | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 4/45g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam McIntyre | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 3/25g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/49g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/18g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 5g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 5/8g | 3/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/7g | 6/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 3 in 5g | 8/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 83% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 4/9g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 3 in 5g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 17' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 0/3g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 22% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 2/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | RES | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1488 · Sea Eagles 1473 · ELO difference: 15 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 958 | 970 | Sea Eagles +12 |
| Backs | 993 | 980 | Cowboys +12 |
| Halves | 981 | 939 | Cowboys +42 |
| Hooker | 954 | 987 | Sea Eagles +33 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Cowboys |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-04-16 11:50 UTC (latest tip update)