Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sea Eagles defied the model's 59% prediction for Cowboys, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 32 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. Sea Eagles led 6–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 53.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (361 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 55% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Sea Eagles prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
59%
Sea Eagles
41%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 5.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.59
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.2%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 53.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | R2026-R2L R2026-R3W R2026-R4W R2026-R5W R2026-R6W older → newer | 28.2 |
Sea Eagles | R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R4L R2026-R5W R2026-R6W | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.0
Cowboys
26.8
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
5.2
Cowboys
1.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1917
Cowboys
1704
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
7.2
Cowboys
4.8
Sea Eagles
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysGerard Sutton
361 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Cowboys hold a 7-point edge: 27W–22L (55%) vs Sea Eagles's 21W–23L (48%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
5.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.07
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Cowboys get a +3.5 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Sea Eagles's +0.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Cowboys predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.