Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 62% prediction for Warriors — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.6 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 46 — within 2 points. Wests Tigers led 10–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (293 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in — a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams — a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
62%
Wests Tigers
38%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 166-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1417). The margin model predicts Warriors by 4.6 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.22
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.0%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W L L L | 27.6 |
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Warriors
24.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
7.4
Warriors
2.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1713
Warriors
1594
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.5
Warriors
4.3
Wests Tigers
Referee Indicator
BalancedAdam Gee
293 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee — Warriors 15W–17L (47%) and Wests Tigers 18W–21L (46%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Warriors predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +4.6
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