# Warriors v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 14 – 32 Wests Tigers

_Wests Tigers maul Warriors._

Half time: 10 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 62% / Wests Tigers 38% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 27 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (9' 1st), Jacob Laban (15'), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (69' 1st) · Wests Tigers: Faaletino Tavana (32'), Kai Pearce-Paul (35'), Royce Hunt (39'), Jahream Bula (59'), Jock Madden (73'), Sunia Turuva (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 62% | Lost |
| Wests Tigers | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warriors vs Wests Tigers Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 4, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 27 Mar 2026, 09:42 pm_

Warriors 14–32 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 4 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match were on show at Go Media Stadium, and only one of them survived contact. The Warriors did their damage early and loose, the Wests Tigers ground it out and let the volume do the talking. Final score: Wests Tigers 32, Warriors 14, and the shape of the stat sheet tells you exactly how that happened.

The Warriors led 8-0 inside 15 minutes, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad opening the scoring before Jacob Laban crossed soon after. Then Adam Pompey was sin binned in the 18th minute, and the Wests Tigers made him count. Faaletino Tavana, Kai Pearce-Paul and Royce Hunt all scored before the break to flip an 8-0 deficit into a 16-10 lead. That's three tries in seven minutes of match time either side of the extra man. Handy trick if you can manage it.

From there the Wests Tigers just kept coming. Jahream Bula extended it after halftime, Nicoll-Klokstad grabbed his second for the Warriors to make it 22-14, and then Jock Madden and Sunia Turuva closed it out late. Six try scorers for the visitors against three individual efforts for the home side, and the gap only widened as the clock ran down.

The numbers back up what the eye saw. Wests Tigers ran for 1,643 metres to the Warriors's 1,475, busted 46 tackles to 20, and scored off six line breaks against the Warriors's three. That's not a marginal edge, that's a team getting quicker ball and doing more with it every time they had it. Effective tackle percentage told a similar story: 92.1% for the Tigers against 85.8% for the Warriors, who missed 46 tackles to the visitors' 20. Defence was the difference, not possession, which was close to even at 51-49.

Oddly enough, the ledger that usually decides these things, penalties, ran heavily against the winning side. Wests Tigers conceded nine penalties to the Warriors's three and still walked away with the points. When you're breaking the line twice as often as the other mob, discipline stops mattering as much.

None of this lines up with what went in beforehand. The Warriors carried the stronger rating across every position group, forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and arrived on the back of three wins from five with an average margin of plus 13.4. The Wests Tigers had lost four of their last five and were conceding 26 points a game. Form and ratings both pointed one way, and the match went the other.

Alphr's model had the Warriors favourites at 62%, expected to win by 4.6 with a combined total of 48. The total was close enough, 46 points played out. The margin was not. An 18-point win for the Wests Tigers is a long way from a 4.6-point Warriors win, and that's as clean a miss as the model will have this round. Wests Tigers covered the line and then some. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Wests Tigers | 16 | 16 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | 77% |
| 1,475 | Run metres | **1,643** |
| 460 | Post-contact metres | **473** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| 5 | Offloads | **7** |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **92.1%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| 14 | Errors | 14 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 622 | Kick metres | **651** |

**Model Report Card**

Wests Tigers defied the model's 62% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.6 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. Wests Tigers led 10–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 1/4 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 12.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (309 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Wests Tigers prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 15' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 18' Sin Bin — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 8-0 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 32' Try — Faaletino Tavana (Wests Tigers) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 35' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Wests Tigers) — 10-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Royce Hunt (Wests Tigers) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 59' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 68' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 73' Try — Jock Madden (Wests Tigers) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 79' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 14-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.22 (edge -16.0%) — model probability 61.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 62%, but Wests Tigers stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 166 ELO points clear, 1584 to 1417. Form leans Warriors' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Wests Tigers.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 4.6, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 32-6 in 2026 Round 19.

Warriors have won 6 straight; Warriors have put up 162 points in four games; Warriors are 10-2 at home this year. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Warriors 1st against Wests Tigers 5th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.22 and Wests Tigers $4.30, with the line at Warriors -12.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 9 · Wests Tigers 1 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 32-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWW · 162 for, 94 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-2 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 1st · Wests Tigers 5th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.22 · Wests Tigers $4.30 |
| Line | Warriors -12.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 309 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 17W–19L | 47% |
| Wests Tigers | 18W–22L | 45% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Warriors 17W–19L (47%) and Wests Tigers 18W–22L (45%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Wests Tigers's -0.9. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 30.8pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 17.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 13.4pts | Avg Margin | -0.8pts |
| 1691.2m | Run Metres | 1670.8m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 326.8 | Tackles | 320.8 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R27 L · FW1 L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W | 30.8 |
| Wests Tigers | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R2 W · R3 L | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 32 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R19 | Warriors | 34 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R4 | Wests Tigers | 24 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R21 | Warriors | 28 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 30 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 13th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Pompey, 1 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Laulilii, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 4.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.5/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 0 | 2 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 3/g | 3/g |
| Run Metres | 171m/g | 234m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.4% | 79.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 3 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 622m/g | 702m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.1% | 75% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 1 | 4 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 631m/g | 576m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 12.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.64/g (lg 0.42) +52% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.21) +33%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.71) +20% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.42) +19% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 7/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 9' 69' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 6/14g | 22/36g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 9/35g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 15/58g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Metcalf | 5/8 | no games | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 5/14g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 3/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 0/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/35g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/8g | 3/30g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 4 in 3g | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/3g | 10/15g | 50% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Mitchell Barnett | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/16g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 42% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Jeral Skelton | RES | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 2g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 67% | — | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 41% | — | — |
| 6 | Jock Madden | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 2/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/18g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tristan Hope | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 6% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1584 · Wests Tigers 1417 · ELO difference: 166 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1104 | 889 | Warriors +215 |
| Backs | 1064 | 896 | Warriors +169 |
| Halves | 1048 | 948 | Warriors +101 |
| Hooker | 1090 | 910 | Warriors +180 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Warriors predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-27 10:42 UTC (latest tip update)