Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Titans to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 0.5 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Titans trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–14. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 11 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Titans bucked the trend, Dragons historically win 73% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
51%
Dragons
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Titans counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dragons carry a 37-point ELO rating advantage (1332 vs 1295). Recent form favours Titans with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Titans to Win @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons +0.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dragons Draw @8.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | R2025-R26L R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L older → newer | 21.2 |
Dragons | R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3L | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
32.4
Titans
34.2
Dragons
Avg Margin
-11.2
Titans
-14.6
Dragons
Run Metres
1498
Titans
1682
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.0
Titans
3.8
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours DragonsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Dragons have won 8 of 11 games (73%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dragons's -0.1.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1332 vs 1295), but the market favours Titans (@1.87).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Titans predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -0.5
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