# Titans v Dragons — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 22 – 14 Dragons

_Titans roar back to flex on Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 51% / Dragons 49% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 29 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Phillip Sami (9'), Arama Hau (47'), Arama Hau (73') · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (4' 1st), Damien Cook (26')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 51% | Won |
| Dragons | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 10:10 pm_

Titans 22–14 Dragons in NRL Round 4 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Cbus Super Stadium had the Dragons up 12-6, and on the stats sheet at that point it looked like the tighter, better-drilled side was doing exactly what it should. Tyrell Sloan opened the scoring inside three minutes, Phillip Sami hit back for the Titans soon after, and Damien Cook's try in the 25th minute had the Dragons looking comfortable. Six points up at the break isn't a lot, but it was theirs to defend.

It didn't hold. Arama Hau crossed in the 47th minute to trim it to 10-14, then crossed again in the 73rd to put the Titans in front for the first time all game at 18-14. From there the home side saw it out, running out 22-14 winners. Two tries in the second half from one man turned a six-point deficit into an eight-point win, and that's about as clean a role reversal as you'll see.

The Dragons were the tidier side with ball in hand, no argument there. They completed at 78% to the Titans' 73% and coughed the ball up only 11 times to 13. On paper that's the platform for a control-the-game win. It just didn't translate into points, because the Titans did the damage that actually matters in the collision.

Line breaks tell that story on their own: three to one, Titans' way. Add 31 tackle breaks to the Dragons' 19, and 13 offloads to keep it alive compared to eight, and you've got a Titans forward effort that kept finding metres after first contact even though the raw run-metre gap was modest, 1,707 to 1,619. Post-contact metres were dead level at 537 apiece, which says the collision was even, but the Titans turned that even contest into line breaks and the Dragons didn't.

Defensively it's just as telling. The Titans missed 19 tackles, the Dragons missed 31, and effective tackle percentage read 91.4% to 87.3% in the home side's favour. For a Dragons forward pack and halves pairing rated well ahead of their opposite numbers coming in, 869 to 771 up front and 849 to 759 in the halves, that's a soft night in defence against a side with a weaker roster on paper.

Territory went to the Titans too, 532 kick metres to 445, which with 10 penalties conceded against the Dragons' 7 suggests the Titans were happy to trade field position early and let their forwards do the rest.

Form lines pointed to a genuine underdog story here. The Titans came in having lost four of their last five, the Dragons all five, and Alphr's model still had Sydney's ledger favoured on ratings, tipping the Dragons by half a point on a projected 46-point total. The model backed the Titans to win at 51% probability, and got the winner right with the margin landing at 8 points against a 0.5-point pick, a reasonable miss given how the game actually played out. The under on 52.5 also came in, with the final total sitting at 36. Two out of four for the model on this one, and the story of the match was really the Titans' go-forward turning even collisions into three line breaks the Dragons couldn't match.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 16 | 22 |
| Dragons | 12 | 2 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| **1,707** | Run metres | 1,619 |
| 537 | Post-contact metres | 537 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 19 |
| **13** | Offloads | 8 |
| **91.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.3% |
| **19** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| 13 | Errors | **11** |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **7** |
| **532** | Kick metres | 445 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Titans to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 0.5 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Titans trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 22–14. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 11 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Titans bucked the trend, Dragons historically win 67% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 9' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Damien Cook (Dragons) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 73' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 18-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Titans to win @ $1.87 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dragons Draw @ $8.00 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Titans and Dragons. The model can't split them, landing on Titans at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Dragons sit 37 ELO points clear, 1332 to 1295, so the model is backing Titans against the ratings gap. Form leans Titans' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Titans, which says Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 17th against Dragons 16th.

The market has Titans favourites, Titans $1.87 and Dragons $1.97, with the line at Titans -0.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 5 · Dragons 5 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-18 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 17th · Dragons 16th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Titans $1.87 · Dragons $1.97 |
| Line | Titans -0.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |
| Dragons | 10W–5L | 67% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Dragons have won 10 of 15 games (67%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 16 (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Titans's +0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 21.2pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 32.4pts | Avg Conceded | 34.2pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -14.6pts |
| 1497.6m | Run Metres | 1682.0m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 343.0 | Tackles | 393.6 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 9.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R26 L · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 21.2 |
| Dragons | R26 L · R27 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 L | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Dragons | 18 – 38 | Titans |
| 2025 | R6 | Dragons | 38 – 16 | Titans |
| 2024 | R24 | Dragons | 32 – 16 | Titans |
| 2024 | R1 | Titans | 4 – 28 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R6 | Titans | 20 – 18 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (2.67 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 14th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.67/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 5 | 0 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 170m/g | 142m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 89.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 10 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 595m/g | 793m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 15/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 76.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 381m/g | 602m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.21) +57% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.42) +40% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.76/g (lg 0.42) +81% · Props 0.25/g (lg 0.17) +47% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/16g | 11% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 11/27g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Max Feagai | RES | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 33/64g | 40% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | CE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 28/64g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Campbell | HB | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 2/6g | 17/36g | 38% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/73g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/27g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/37g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 7% | — | 🏉 47' 73' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 14/44g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 5/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/31g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/13g | 5/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 38% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·2·0) | 10/16g | 5/8g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Daniel Atkinson | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 6% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 10 | Blake Lawrie | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Hame Sele | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jacob Halangahu | RES | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | RES | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1332 vs 1295), but the market favours Titans (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1295 · Dragons 1332 · ELO difference: 37 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 771 | 869 | Dragons +98 |
| Backs | 763 | 792 | Dragons +30 |
| Halves | 759 | 849 | Dragons +90 |
| Hooker | 810 | 848 | Dragons +38 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Titans favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-29 11:10 UTC (latest tip update)