Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 49, within 5 points. Roosters trailed 10–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–33. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Roosters bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 40% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
44%
Roosters
56%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1504 vs 1424). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Roosters by 3.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.47
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L older → newer | 33.8 |
Roosters | R2025-R27W R2025-R28L R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3L | 18.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.0
Sea Eagles
25.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
4.8
Sea Eagles
-6.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1735
Sea Eagles
1643
Roosters
Line Breaks
6.2
Sea Eagles
5.4
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sea Eagles hold a 7-point edge: 2W–3L (40%) vs Roosters's 1W–2L (33%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Roosters).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Roosters predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -3.0
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