# Sea Eagles v Roosters — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 16 – 33 Roosters

_Roosters rally to crow over Sea Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 44% / Roosters 56% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Thu, 26 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (1' 1st), Tolutau Koula (28'), Tom Trbojevic (65' 1st) · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (6'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (17'), Robert Toia (51'), Connor Watson (54'), Daniel Tupou (57'), Robert Toia (76')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 56% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 26 Mar 2026, 10:15 pm_

Sea Eagles 16–33 Roosters in NRL Round 4 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Roosters shading this by 3 points and a combined total near 44. They got the winner right, 56% probability, tick. The margin was where it fell over badly: Roosters by 17, not 3. The total wasn't far off either, 49 points against a picked 44. One out of four on the finer detail, which tells you the shape of this game was harder to see coming than the result.

For a half, the read looked shaky in the other direction. Tom Trbojevic opened the scoring inside the first minute, and after Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed twice for the Roosters either side of the 10 and 17 minute marks, Tolutau Koula's try on 28 minutes had Manly up 10-8 at the break. Sea Eagles leading a side rated stronger everywhere on the paper, forwards, backs, halves, hooker, the lot.

Then the second half happened. Robert Toia scored in the 51st minute to put Roosters back in front, and within five minutes it was out to 24-10 through Connor Watson and a penalty try to Daniel Tupou. That's 16 points in five minutes of game time. Trbojevic grabbed his second, then a Jason Saab sin bin at 71 minutes left Manly a man short, and Toia's second try plus a Sam Walker field goal in the 79th minute rounded it out at 33-16.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the ratings said would happen if Roosters found their gear. They ran 2,094 metres to 1,763, and the post-contact numbers show where that gap came from: 711 to 495. Manly's forward pack was rated behind coming in, 923 to 1,005, and that shows up directly in metres after the tackle.

Ball control was the other half of it. Roosters completed at 96%, Sea Eagles at 75%, and Manly coughed up 13 errors to just 5. Add the penalty count, four against Manly and none against the Roosters, and you've got a side that simply had the ball more (58% possession) and did more with it, including 10 offloads to Manly's 4.

Sea Eagles actually shaded the effective tackle percentage, 88.9 to 86.5, and matched the visitors on line breaks at 4 apiece. So it wasn't a defensive collapse in the classic sense. It was territory and completion, Roosters kicking for 840 metres to Manly's 580, that let them dictate where the ball spent its time.

Form lines told a different story pre-match. Manly arrived averaging 33.8 points a game and a plus 4.8 margin across their last five, Roosters at just 18.8 points and minus 6.4. On recent output, Sea Eagles looked the livelier side. That form didn't carry, and the backline gap in the ratings, 1,031 to 901 in the Roosters' favour, is probably the bigger tell in hindsight.

The model got the winner. The size of it, and quite how the game flipped after half-time, is the bit worth remembering.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Roosters | 8 | 25 | 33 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Possession | **58%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **96%** |
| 1,763 | Run metres | **2,094** |
| 495 | Post-contact metres | **711** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| 4 | Offloads | **10** |
| **88.9%** | Effective tackle % | 86.5% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| 13 | Errors | **5** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **0** |
| 580 | Kick metres | **840** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 49, within 5 points. Roosters trailed 10–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–33. The model went 1/4 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The 49-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 0' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 6' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 28' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 51' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 10-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 54' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 10-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 56' Penalty Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 10-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 65' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 14-26 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 76' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 16-30 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 79' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-33 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.47 (edge -8.3%) — model probability 56.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 56%, but Sea Eagles stay live at 44%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 80 ELO points clear, 1504 to 1424. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 33-16 in 2026 Round 4.

Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 11th against Roosters 15th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Sea Eagles $2.68 and Roosters $1.47, with the line at Sea Eagles +7.5.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 11 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 3 · Roosters 7 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 33-16 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 11th · Roosters 15th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $2.68 · Roosters $1.47 |
| Line | Sea Eagles +7.5 |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 11d · Roosters 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Roosters | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Sea Eagles 3W–3L (50%) and Roosters 2W–2L (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Roosters).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 33.8pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 29.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Margin | -6.4pts |
| 1735.0m | Run Metres | 1643.0m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 323.4 | Tackles | 338.6 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 15.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 L | 33.8 |
| Roosters | R27 W · FW1 L · R1 L · R2 W · R3 L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Sea Eagles | 4 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2024 | SF | Roosters | 40 – 16 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R21 | Roosters | 34 – 30 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R2 | Sea Eagles | 21 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R23 | Roosters | 26 – 16 | Sea Eagles |

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 2 in 2g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 6/12g | 42/62g | 44% | — | 🏉 1' 65' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 22/40g | 44% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 1 in 2g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 23/37g | 56% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (2·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 40/60g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 10/20g | 29% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 8/31g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/49g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 2 in 2g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 20/41g | 40% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 10/36g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/18g | 17/98g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Waddell | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/36g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | RES | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 6/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Bryan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 12/21g | 3/9g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 1 in 3g | 9/10g (2·0·2·3·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 15/23g | 8/10g | 56% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 29% | — | 🏉 51' 76' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 1 in 3g | 12/10g (0·3·0·0·4·3·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 53% | — | 🏉 6' 17' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 40/139g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Egan Butcher | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 15 | Blake Steep | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1424 · Roosters 1504 · ELO difference: 80 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 923 | 1005 | Roosters +82 |
| Backs | 901 | 1031 | Roosters +131 |
| Halves | 915 | 981 | Roosters +65 |
| Hooker | 948 | 977 | Roosters +29 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Roosters predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-26 11:15 UTC (latest tip update)