Win Probability
AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 56% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sharks bucked the trend, Raiders historically win 58% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
56%
Sharks
44%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 44%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Raiders counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1513 vs 1469). Recent form favours Sharks with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.3 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Raiders 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3L older → newer | 17.0 |
Sharks | R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W R2026-R2L R2026-R3L | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
28.6
Raiders
21.6
Sharks
Avg Margin
-11.6
Raiders
0.8
Sharks
Run Metres
1626
Raiders
1566
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.2
Raiders
4.2
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Raiders hold a 5-point edge: 28W–20L (58%) vs Sharks's 17W–15L (53%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Raiders get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sharks's -1.1.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1513 vs 1469), but the market favours Raiders (@1.80).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Raiders predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +1.3
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