# Raiders v Sharks — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 22 – 34 Sharks

_Sharks sink their teeth into Raiders._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 56% / Sharks 44% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 29 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Kaeo Weekes (17'), Hudson Young (26'), Savelio Tamale (45'), Xavier Savage (56') · Sharks: Teig Wilton (4' 1st), KL Iro (8'), Billy Burns (22'), Samuel Stonestreet (49'), William Kennedy (59'), Jesse Colquhoun (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 56% | Lost |
| Sharks | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 05:57 pm_

Raiders 22–34 Sharks in NRL Round 4 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with what should have been enough. The Raiders broke the line seven times to five, busted 48 tackles to Sharks's 40, threw 15 offloads to 13 and missed only 40 tackles to the Sharks's 48. On paper that's the better attacking side and the tighter defence. They still lost by 12.

The problem was the start. Corey Horsburgh was sin-binned inside three minutes, and before the Raiders had settled a man down, Teig Wilton and KL Iro had them 0-10 in the opening seven. That's a hole no amount of tackle busts fixes easily, and it set the shape for the whole night: Canberra chasing a lead they never held.

They did claw back. Kaeo Weekes and Hudson Young got them within two scores by half-time, 18-12, and Savelio Tamale's try three minutes into the second half dragged it to 16-18. That was as close as it got. Every time the Raiders found an answer, the Sharks had one waiting: Samuel Stonestreet at 48, William Kennedy at 59, Jesse Colquhoun at 71 to put it out to 12 and shut the door.

The territory battle tells you why the Sharks kept finding field position to score from. They kicked for 625 metres to the Raiders's 468, a gap of well over 150 metres, and it lines up with the pre-match numbers: Sharks rated well ahead at halves (1014 to 938) and hooker (1006 to 949). The Raiders forwards did their job in the collision, outmuscling the Sharks pack for post-contact metres would have been nice but they didn't get there either, 520 to 620. The Sharks ground it out in both territory and traffic.

Six different try scorers for the Sharks against four for the Raiders says something too. Wilton, Iro, Burns, Stonestreet, Kennedy and Colquhoun all got on the sheet, spreading the damage wide enough that Canberra's line breaks never quite converted into a lead they could hold.

None of it should shock anyone who'd looked at the form line. The Sharks came in having won two of five with an average margin of plus-0.8, the Raiders one win from five and conceding 28.6 points a game on average. This finished 34-22, well within that pattern.

Where it does sting is the model. Alphr had Canberra as 56% favourites and picked them by 1.3 points on a combined total of 47. The Sharks won by 12, covered the 1.5-point line, and the model finished 1 from 4 on the match.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 10 | 22 |
| Sharks | 18 | 16 | 34 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| 1,729 | Run metres | **1,730** |
| 520 | Post-contact metres | **620** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 40 |
| **15** | Offloads | 13 |
| **84.9%** | Effective tackle % | 81.9% |
| **40** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 468 | Kick metres | **625** |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 56% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 12 points. The model went 1/4 on this match. Sharks covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Sin Bin — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 4' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 7' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 21' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 16-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 55' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 20-22 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 22-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 71' Try — Jesse Colquhoun (Sharks) — 22-32 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.80 (edge +2.5%) — model probability 55.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 1 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 56%, but Sharks stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 44 ELO points clear, 1513 to 1469, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Raiders.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Raiders by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 14th against Sharks 10th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.80 and Sharks $2.05, with the line at Raiders -1.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Sharks 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-20 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 14th · Sharks 10th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Sharks 100% |
| Market | Raiders $1.80 · Sharks $2.05 |
| Line | Raiders -1.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28W–20L | 58% |
| Sharks | 19W–15L | 56% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Raiders 28W–20L (58%) and Sharks 19W–15L (56%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sharks get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.0pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 28.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 1626.0m | Run Metres | 1566.0m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 382.4 | Tackles | 369.6 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | FW1 L · SF L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 17.0 |
| Sharks | SF W · PF L · R1 W · R2 L · R3 L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Sharks | 20 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2025 | SF | Raiders | 12 – 32 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R5 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R8 | Raiders | 0 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R4 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 8th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Martin, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.33/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) | 1.33/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 2 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 93.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 785m/g | 702m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 25.3/g | 20.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 1 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 446m/g | 394m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.3% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.74/g (lg 0.71) +4%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.17) +53% · Centres 1/g (lg 0.71) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.55/g (lg 0.46) +20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 12/26g | 36% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/2g | 6/10g | 31% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 4/20g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 21/52g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/31g | 46% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 10/23g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 3g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Morgan Smithies | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 6/59g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 10/96g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/13g | 24/63g | 28% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/47g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/34g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Roddy | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/2g (2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/6g | 22% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 8/12g | 3/5g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 5/12g | 3/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (0·2·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 45% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 3 in 3g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/3g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 2/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1513 vs 1469), but the market favours Raiders (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1469 · Sharks 1513 · ELO difference: 44 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 982 | 1046 | Sharks +64 |
| Backs | 981 | 973 | Raiders +8 |
| Halves | 938 | 1014 | Sharks +77 |
| Hooker | 949 | 1006 | Sharks +57 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Raiders predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-29 06:57 UTC (latest tip update)