NRL | Round 4

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 68 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 49. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 22 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Panthers firmly in control (99%)

PAN48

99%80'1%

20EEL

← Eels momentumMomentum +11Panthers momentum →

Next Try (within 10 min)

AI Model

83% none

PAN 11%No try 83%EEL 6%

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

65%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

65%

Eels

35%

✨

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 175-point ELO rating advantage (1673 vs 1498). The margin model predicts Panthers by 5.7 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.20

Winner ✓

Edge

-13.8%

✓

Line / Spread

Eels +14.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Panthers 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Panthers	R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3W older → newer	30.4
Eels	R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W	33.2

Avg Conceded

10.4

Panthers

27.2

Eels

Avg Margin

20.0

Panthers

6.0

Eels

Run Metres

1797

Panthers

1663

Eels

Line Breaks

5.4

Panthers

5.0

Eels

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Todd Smith

105 career games · since 2019

AI Analysis

Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)

Panthers

7W – 6L

54%

Eels

9W – 7L

56%

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Panthers 7W–6L (54%) and Eels 9W–7L (56%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Avg Total

46.1 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

10.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.50

SB Away %

52%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Panthers

-1.5

Eels

-0.5

Eels get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Panthers's -1.5.

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1

Jul 2025PEN 32 - 10 PAR

Jun 2025PEN 18 - 10 PAR

Aug 2024PEN 36 - 34 PAR

Mar 2024PEN 26 - 18 PAR

Sep 2023PEN 18 - 32 PAR

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN

1673Overall1498

PAR

ELO difference: +175 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1169Forwards1014

PEN +155

1198Backs960

PEN +238

1194Halves1008

PEN +186

1173Hooker1006

PEN +167

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN

Stat

PAR

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

30.4pts

Avg Score

33.2pts

10.4pts

Avg Conceded

27.2pts

20.0pts

Avg Margin

6.0pts

1796.8m

Run Metres

1662.6m

5.4

Line Breaks

5.0

330.2

Tackles

332.2

11.4

Errors

9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Panthers

Forward Pack12.0%

Panthers

Backline Quality10.0%

Panthers

Halves Control9.0%

Panthers

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Panthers

Venue Advantage7.0%

Panthers

Model Confidence

65%

Panthers predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.7

2/4 match predictions correct

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