# Panthers v Eels — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 48 – 20 Eels

_Panthers put Eels to the sword._

Half time: 30 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 65% / Eels 35% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 28 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Isaah Yeo (5' 1st), Isaiah Papali'i (11'), Blaize Talagi (13'), Lindsay Smith (25'), Casey McLean (27'), Paul Alamoti (55'), Thomas Jenkins (58'), Thomas Jenkins (77') · Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (21'), Bailey Simonsson (47'), Dylan Walker (69'), Sean Russell (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 65% | Won |
| Eels | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 28 Mar 2026, 07:29 pm_

Panthers 48–20 Eels in NRL Round 4 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers beat the Eels 48-20 at CommBank Stadium, and on the scoreboard that reads like a hiding. Split the ball up evenly though, and it gets stranger: both sides finished at 50% possession. When one team doubles the other's score with the footy shared right down the middle, the story isn't who had it, it's what they did with it.

Pennrith answered that inside the first quarter. Isaah Yeo opened the account in the 5th minute, Isaiah Papali'i followed at the 10, Blaize Talagi at the 12, and just like that it was 16-0 before the Eels had settled into the contest. Josh Addo-Carr got one back at 21 to make it 18-4, but Lindsay Smith and Casey McLean crossed either side of the half-hour mark to push it to 28-4, and by the break it was 30-4. From there it was about how much further Penrith wanted to take it, not whether they would win.

The completion numbers explain why the Eels never got a foothold in that opening stretch. Penrith completed at 82% to the Eels' 73%, and coughed up just 7 errors to Parramatta's 12. Field position and possession quality matter more than raw share, and Penrith simply held onto the footy at the moments that counted.

Contact was just as lopsided. Penrith racked up 596 post-contact metres and 39 tackle breaks to the Eels' 30, numbers that line up with the pre-match forward and backline ratings, 1169 to 1014 up front and 1198 to 960 out wide. On defence, the Eels missed 39 tackles to Penrith's 30, and that leak, not the possession count, is where the margin actually got built.

Thomas Jenkins was the individual difference, scoring twice, at the 57th and again in the 77th, either side of the Eels' late rally through Dylan Walker and Sean Russell. Paul Alamoti's try in the 54th and Jenkins' first three minutes later turned a manageable second-half deficit into a rout, pushing it from 30-8 out to 40-8 inside four minutes.

Parramatta didn't fold completely. Bailey Simonsson, Walker and Russell all crossed in the second half, and the Eels actually conceded fewer penalties on the night, 5 to Penrith's 6. But a Mitch Kenny sin bin in the 42nd summed up the discipline gap, and 12 errors against a side completing at 82% was always going to be punished.

Alphr's model backed Penrith at 65% and had the total right, tipping the over on 47.5 with the game landing at 68 points. The margin was the miss: 5.7 points predicted, 28 delivered, leaving the model at 2 from 4 on this one. Penrith's last-five average margin of 20 points was already the biggest tell in the data. This one just ran past even that.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30 | 18 | 48 |
| Eels | 4 | 16 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,736** | Run metres | 1,503 |
| **596** | Post-contact metres | 527 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| **9** | Offloads | 8 |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **86.8%** |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **7** | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **458** | Kick metres | 398 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 68 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 49. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 21 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Panthers bucked the trend, Eels historically win 56% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Isaah Yeo (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 10' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 12' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 21' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 25' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 28-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 42' Sin Bin — Mitch Kenny (Panthers) — 28-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 46' Try — Bailey Simonsson (Eels) — 30-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 54' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 34-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 57' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 40-8 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 69' Try — Dylan Walker (Eels) — 42-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 42-18 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 77' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 46-20 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.20 (edge -13.8%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 6 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 175 ELO points clear, 1673 to 1498.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 49. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 21.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year. Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Panthers 2nd against Eels 9th.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.20 and Eels $4.60, with the line at Panthers -14.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Eels 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 24-18 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 2nd · Eels 9th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Panthers $1.20 · Eels $4.60 |
| Line | Panthers -14.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 7W–7L | 50% |
| Eels | 10W–8L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Eels hold a 6-point edge: 10W–8L (56%) vs Panthers's 7W–7L (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Eels get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Panthers's -1.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 30.4pts | Avg Score | 33.2pts |
| 10.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1796.8m | Run Metres | 1662.6m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 330.2 | Tackles | 332.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | SF W · PF L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 W | 30.4 |
| Eels | R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 33.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Eels | 18 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R19 | Eels | 10 – 32 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R13 | Panthers | 18 – 10 | Eels |
| 2024 | R23 | Eels | 34 – 36 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R2 | Panthers | 26 – 18 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (3 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 17th-ranked right edge attack (0.33 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 4th there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Kautoga, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 10th) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.33/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.33/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 0 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 208m/g | 106m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 83.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 2 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 795m/g | 692m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 77.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 0 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 559m/g | 454m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Centres 1.04/g (lg 0.71) +46%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.46) +7% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.42) -21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 4/14g | 7/16g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 8 in 3g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·4) | 3/3g | 6/9g | 51% | — | 🏉 58' 77' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 0 in 3g | 8/10g (0·0·1·2·0·3·2·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 4/9g | 40% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 1 in 3g | 7/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 6/11g | 45% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1) | 11/14g | 5/15g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/20g | 24% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/19g | 4/18g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/13g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/31g | 30% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/24g | 0/17g | 6% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 15 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 6/25g | 20% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 4/12g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 8/27g | 32% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 5/13g | 2/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 14/32g | 30% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 1 in 2g | 11/10g (0·1·1·2·0·2·1·3·0·1) | 7/13g | 17/21g | 58% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 6 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | 2 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 20/62g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/13g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/23g | 10/84g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/5g | 2/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 3/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Dylan Walker | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 2/18g | 2% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/26g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Luca Moretti | Replacement | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1673 · Eels 1498 · ELO difference: 175 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1169 | 1014 | Panthers +155 |
| Backs | 1198 | 960 | Panthers +238 |
| Halves | 1194 | 1008 | Panthers +186 |
| Hooker | 1173 | 1006 | Panthers +167 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Panthers predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-28 08:29 UTC (latest tip update)