# Cowboys v Storm — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 28 – 24 Storm

_Cowboys roar back to round up Storm._

Half time: 10 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 32% / Storm 68% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 28 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Jake Clifford (5' 1st), Braidon Burns (11'), Murray Taulagi (53'), Sam McIntyre (68'), Heilum Luki (71'), Braidon Burns (75') · Storm: Will Warbrick (8'), Will Warbrick (22'), Sualauvi Faalogo (37'), Will Warbrick (44'), Will Warbrick (65')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 68% | Lost |
| Cowboys | 32% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 29 Mar 2026, 01:31 am_

Cowboys 28–24 Storm in NRL Round 4 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine line breaks to seven. That's the gap the Cowboys carved into Storm's line at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, and it's the number that explains how a side down 16-10 at half-time walked away 28-24 winners.

Will Warbrick made it look, for long stretches, like a lost cause for the home side. He scored four times, the first at the 8th minute to level things up, then again at 22 minutes to tie it at 10-10, and twice more either side of half-time to push Storm out to 10-20 by the 43rd minute. Sualauvi Faalogo's try at 36 minutes was the other Storm score, and by the break the visitors had banked a 16-10 lead built almost entirely off individual brilliance out wide.

Then the Cowboys started finding the gaps Storm's edges couldn't close. Murray Taulagi crossed at 52 minutes to cut it to six, and from there the home side scored four tries in the last 23 minutes: Sam McIntyre at 68, Heilum Luki at 71, and Braidon Burns' second at 74 minutes to seal it 28-24. Burns finished with a double, Jake Clifford opened the account back at the 4th minute, and between them the Cowboys crossed six times to Storm's five.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw in that second half. Cowboys ran for 1,561 metres to Storm's 1,387, and post-contact they punished the line for 596 metres against 541. That's a side getting through the first man and dragging extra metres out of every carry, which lines up with nine line breaks and 36 tackle breaks, both bettering Storm's 7 and 33. Storm did their damage a different way, controlling the boot for 542 kick metres to the Cowboys' 424 and completing at a cleaner 76% with only 9 errors to the Cowboys' 12. Neither of those edges mattered enough when it counted.

This was meant to be a mismatch on paper. Storm went in rated well clear across every position, forwards 1109 to 875, backs 1155 to 878, halves 1126 to 867, and carried the better recent form too, four wins from five against the Cowboys' two, an average winning margin of 17.2 points compared to a losing one of 5.2. Alphr's model had Storm favourites by 9.7 points and gave them a 68% chance of winning. Instead the Cowboys covered that spread easily and the final margin came in at four, one of the bigger misses on the ledger for the model this round.

The total score prediction fared far better. Alphr had this at 53 points combined, and 52 was what played out, as tight a read as you'll get.

Storm will look at four Warbrick tries and wonder how they didn't have enough. The answer is in the collision stats: the Cowboys kept getting it done after first contact, and in a four-point game that was the difference between the two forms of pressure winning out. Fewer clean releases, more bodies to get through, and eventually that wears a defence down.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Storm | 16 | 8 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,561** | Run metres | 1,387 |
| **596** | Post-contact metres | 541 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 7 |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| 3 | Offloads | **6** |
| 87.2% | Effective tackle % | **87.8%** |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 424 | Kick metres | **542** |

**Model Report Card**

Cowboys defied the model's 68% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 52, within 1 points. Cowboys trailed 10–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–24. The model went 2/4 on this match. Cowboys covered the 15.5-point line. The over 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Cowboys bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Cowboys's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jake Clifford (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 8' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 36' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 43' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 52' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 14-20 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 64' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 14-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 68' Try — Sam McIntyre (Cowboys) — 18-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 71' Try — Heilum Luki (Cowboys) — 22-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 74' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 28-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.19 (edge -11.7%) — model probability 68.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 10 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 68% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 235 ELO points clear, 1625 to 1391. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 53. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 4.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 12th against Storm 4th.

The market has Storm favourites, Cowboys $4.75 and Storm $1.19, with the line at Cowboys +15.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 28-24 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys at home | 7-5 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 12th · Storm 4th |
| Finals odds | Cowboys 100% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Cowboys $4.75 · Storm $1.19 |
| Line | Cowboys +15.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 27W–23L | 54% |
| Storm | 42W–19L | 69% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 42 of 61 games (69%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 27 from 50 (54%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Storm's +0.3. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 32.0pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | 17.2pts |
| 1761.8m | Run Metres | 1881.6m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 322.4 | Tackles | 326.2 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 8.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R25 W · R26 L · R1 L · R2 L · R3 W | 25.6 |
| Storm | FW1 W · PF W · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L | 32.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Cowboys | 20 – 26 | Storm |
| 2025 | R14 | Storm | 38 – 14 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R26 | Cowboys | 38 – 30 | Storm |
| 2023 | R14 | Cowboys | 45 – 20 | Storm |
| 2022 | R11 | Cowboys | 36 – 6 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (3.33 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 13th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 13th (weak)) | 3.33/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 5 | 4 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 329m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.7/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 83.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 12 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 778m/g | 744m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.3/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 4.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 71.8% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 1 · 4 | 3 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 538m/g | 603m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 10.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.2% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.25) +6% · Centres 0.63/g (lg 0.71) -11% · Locks 0.07/g (lg 0.09) -22%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.32/g (lg 0.17) +88% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.27) +56%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 1 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 23/69g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/10g | 44% | — | 🏉 11' 75' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 8/19g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·2·0·2) | 5/5g | 31/52g | 54% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 10/29g | 20% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 22/53g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Coen Hess | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 7/52g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/18g | 2/52g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/30g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/24g | 6% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/44g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kai O'Donnell | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/48g | 6% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 6 in 3g | 10/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·2·3·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 47% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 2 in 3g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 56% | — | 🏉 8' 22' 44' 65' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Moses Leo | CE | 2 in 3g | 2/5g (0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 0/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 12 | Alec MacDonald | 2R | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | RES | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1391 · Storm 1625 · ELO difference: 235 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 875 | 1109 | Storm +234 |
| Backs | 878 | 1155 | Storm +277 |
| Halves | 867 | 1126 | Storm +258 |
| Hooker | 880 | 1129 | Storm +248 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Storm predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-28 14:31 UTC (latest tip update)