Win Probability
AI Game Review
Cowboys defied the model's 68% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 4 points. Total score prediction of 53 was close to the actual 52, within 1 points. Cowboys trailed 10–16 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–24. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 10 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Cowboys bucked the trend, Storm historically win 73% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Cowboys's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
32%
Storm
68%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 235-point ELO rating advantage (1625 vs 1391). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 9.7 points with a combined total of 53.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.19
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.7%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W older → newer | 25.6 |
Storm | R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3L | 32.0 |
Avg Conceded
30.8
Cowboys
14.8
Storm
Avg Margin
-5.2
Cowboys
17.2
Storm
Run Metres
1762
Cowboys
1882
Storm
Line Breaks
4.2
Cowboys
7.2
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 66 games (73%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 27 from 50 (54%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Storm predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 53 · Line: -9.7
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