# Bulldogs v Knights — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 16 – 24 Knights

_Knights lay siege to Bulldogs._

Half time: 0 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 62% / Knights 38% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 28 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Matt Burton (49'), Matt Burton (54'), Jacob Kiraz (72') · Knights: Dominic Young (6' 1st), Tyson Frizell (33'), Dylan Lucas (39'), Dominic Young (60' 1st), Dominic Young (70' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 62% | Lost |
| Knights | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 28 Mar 2026, 04:54 pm_

Bulldogs 16–24 Knights in NRL Round 4 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sixteen tackle breaks. That was the gap between Bulldogs busting 30 and Knights busting 57, and it tells you almost everything about how this game was played out at Accor Stadium. Bulldogs wanted to carry it up and grind through traffic, piling on 659 post-contact metres and 2,060 run metres to the Knights' 1,700. Knights wanted the ball in hand less and doing damage more, content to complete at 82% against 79% and let their footwork do the rest. Final score: Knights 24, Bulldogs 16, and the method that mattered most was written in the first half.

Knights were four points up inside six minutes when Dominic Young crossed, and from there they never looked back despite going a man down. Dylan Lucas was sin binned at the 8th minute for his own try, which is the kind of passage that should cost you a half. Instead Knights used the ten in the bin to their advantage anyway, adding through Tyson Frizell in the 33rd and then Lucas himself just before the break to make it 16-0 at half-time. Three tries, no reply, game shape set before Bulldogs had properly turned up.

Bulldogs did find some ambition after the break. Matt Burton scored twice in quick succession, in the 48th and 54th minutes, dragging the margin back to six. But Young wasn't finished, crossing for his third in the 60th and again in the 69th to push the lead back out to twelve, and Jacob Kiraz's try in the 72nd was too little, too late for a real send home.

The stat sheet backs up the eye test on shape. Bulldogs edged possession 51-49 and line breaks 7-5, and they were the busier side with ball in hand through 12 offloads to 6. None of it built enough pressure where it counted, because Knights defended better when it mattered, missing only 30 tackles to the Bulldogs' 57 and holding an 86.9% effective tackle rate against 84.3%. Knights also controlled the arm-wrestle territorially, booting 800 kick metres to 455, which explains why Bulldogs kept finding themselves starting sets deep in their own end.

The ledger going in said this shouldn't have happened. Bulldogs held the stronger positional ratings everywhere, forwards 1007 to 895, backs 1013 to 926, halves 993 to 911, hooker 973 to 887. Alphr's model had Bulldogs at 62% and favoured them by 5.1 points. Instead Knights won by 8, a result built on early ill discipline turning into points rather than punishment, and a completion rate that outlasted a highlights-reel attack.

Form lines don't tell the full story either. Knights arrived averaging 35.6 points conceded across their last five, hardly the profile of a side that shuts a game down from 16-0. But shutting it down is exactly what they did. Bulldogs's recent form had them 2 and 3 with an average margin of minus 8.2, and against a similar-shaped scoreline here, the pattern held again. Alphr's model went 2 from 4 on this one, got the low-scoring shape right with the under call, missed the head-to-head and the margin. Knights covered, and did it comfortably.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| Knights | 16 | 8 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 79% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| **2,060** | Run metres | 1,700 |
| **659** | Post-contact metres | 524 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **57** |
| **12** | Offloads | 6 |
| 84.3% | Effective tackle % | **86.9%** |
| 57 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 11 | Errors | **8** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 455 | Kick metres | **800** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 62% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. Knights covered the 12.5-point line. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Knights's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Knights have a 62% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 8' Sin Bin — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 33' Try — Tyson Frizell (Knights) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 39' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 48' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 54' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 60' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 72' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge -14.3%) — model probability 62.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 62%, but Knights stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 99 ELO points clear, 1509 to 1410.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 4.

Knights have won 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 3rd against Knights 8th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.24 and Knights $4.10, with the line at Bulldogs -12.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 24-16 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 3rd · Knights 8th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.24 · Knights $4.10 |
| Line | Bulldogs -12.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 10W–20L | 33% |
| Knights | 16W–10L | 62% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Knights have won 16 of 26 games (62%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 10 from 30 (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Knights get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Bulldogs's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.8pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 35.6pts |
| -8.2pts | Avg Margin | -15.2pts |
| 1741.0m | Run Metres | 1516.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 386.8 | Tackles | 344.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R27 L · FW1 L · SF L · R1 W · R3 W | 15.8 |
| Knights | R26 L · R27 L · R1 W · R2 W · R3 L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R5 | Bulldogs | 20 – 0 | Knights |
| 2024 | R13 | Knights | 2 – 32 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R7 | Bulldogs | 36 – 12 | Knights |
| 2023 | R24 | Knights | 42 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R18 | Bulldogs | 0 – 66 | Knights |

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/9g | 3/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 1 in 2g | 7/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 9/30g | 48% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 3 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/10g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 13/26g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 0 in 2g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 13/35g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 14/36g | 26% | — | 🏉 49' 54' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 8/30g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·3·0·0·1·1·1) | 2/4g | 9/24g | 42% | — | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 8/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Lipoi Hopoi | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sean O'Sullivan | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Hunt | FB | 2 in 3g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 3 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 2/4g | 52% | — | 🏉 6' 60' 70' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 15/39g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/7g | 5/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 3 in 3g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 1 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·3·1·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 60% | — | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/23g | 6/22g | 10% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Pasami Saulo | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Hopwood | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1509 · Knights 1410 · ELO difference: 99 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1007 | 895 | Bulldogs +112 |
| Backs | 1013 | 926 | Bulldogs +87 |
| Halves | 993 | 911 | Bulldogs +82 |
| Hooker | 973 | 887 | Bulldogs +85 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-28 05:54 UTC (latest tip update)