Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 62% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 8 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 47.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Knights's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Knights have a 60% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
62%
Knights
38%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 99-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1410). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 5.1 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.3%
Line / Spread
Knights +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W R2026-R3W older → newer | 15.8 |
Knights | R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1W R2026-R2W R2026-R3L | 20.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Bulldogs
35.6
Knights
Avg Margin
-8.2
Bulldogs
-15.2
Knights
Run Metres
1741
Bulldogs
1516
Knights
Line Breaks
4.0
Bulldogs
3.8
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Knights have won 15 of 25 games (60%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 10 from 29 (34%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Knights get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Bulldogs's -0.6.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.1
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