Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
62%
Knights
38%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 99-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1410). Recent form favours Knights with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 5.1 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Lost ✗
Edge
-14.3%
Line / Spread
Knights +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WLLLL | 17.0 |
Knights | WWWLL | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
27.2
Bulldogs
32.0
Knights
Avg Margin
-10.2
Bulldogs
-8.8
Knights
Run Metres
1748
Bulldogs
1418
Knights
Line Breaks
4.0
Bulldogs
3.3
Knights
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Knights have won 14 of 24 games (58%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 10 from 27 (37%). That's a 21‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.1
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