Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 2.9 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Broncos led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
56%
Dolphins
44%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Dolphins with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Broncos by 2.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.64
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L R2026-R3W older → newer | 19.0 |
Dolphins | R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L R2026-R2W R2026-R3W | 36.8 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Broncos
23.6
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-5.4
Broncos
13.2
Dolphins
Run Metres
1672
Broncos
1814
Dolphins
Line Breaks
3.2
Broncos
7.0
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 51 games (57%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 3 from 8 (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Broncos predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +2.9
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