# Broncos v Dolphins — NRL Round 4 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 26 – 12 Dolphins

_Broncos stampede past Dolphins._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 56% / Dolphins 44% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 27 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Kotoni Staggs (4' 1st), Adam Reynolds (25'), Reece Walsh (43'), Gehamat Shibasaki (73'), Kotoni Staggs (80' 1st) · Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (29'), Jake Averillo (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 56% | Won |
| Dolphins | 44% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.9 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 4 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 25 Mar 2026, 04:20 pm · Last updated: 27 Mar 2026, 09:57 pm_

Broncos 26–12 Dolphins in NRL Round 4 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos led from the third minute and never gave it back, though for a long stretch it looked like a game the Dolphins could still snatch. Staggs crossed inside three minutes to get it rolling, Reynolds stretched it to 8-0 by the 24th, and it took Jamayne Isaako's try four minutes later to get the Dolphins on the board at all. Broncos still held a 10-6 buffer at the break, but it was the kind of margin that leaves a game open.

And open it stayed, for a while. Reece Walsh crossed just after halftime to make it 14-6, then Jake Averillo hit back for the Dolphins to cut it to 16-10 at the 58th minute. Six points, twenty minutes left, plenty to play for. That's when Gehamat Shibasaki's try at 72 minutes put Broncos out to 20-12, and Staggs claimed his second in the 79th to close it out at 26-12. The safe margin didn't arrive until the game was almost done.

Strip away the scoreboard and the stat sheet tells a more complicated story. Dolphins had 52% of the ball and ran for 2,137 metres to the Broncos's 1,839, with 720 post-contact metres to 548 and 53 tackle breaks to 46. They offloaded 25 times to the Broncos's five. On paper that's a side dominating the collisions.

It just didn't turn into points at the rate it should have, because Broncos looked after the footy and the Dolphins didn't. Broncos completed at 85% against 74%, coughed it up only 10 times to 15, and turned that discipline into five line breaks to the Dolphins's three. Kick metres told a similar tale: 801 to 462, Broncos happy to play territory and make the Dolphins work their way back the length of the field.

Where it went wrong for the home side was in defence, missing 53 tackles to 46 and landing an effective tackle rate of just 79.9% against the Dolphins's 87.0%. That gap explains how a team completing under 75% of its sets still racked up 2,000-plus running metres. It also explains why the margin sat at four points for so long before the Broncos found the extra gear late.

The Dolphins came in with the better form line, four wins from five against three, and an average margin of plus-13.2 compared to the Broncos sitting at minus-5.4. Their backline rating of 1079 also outstripped the Broncos's 1059. All of that showed up in the collision stats. But the Broncos's edge in the halves, 1032 to 1014, showed up exactly where it needed to: in the completion rate, the line breaks, and the tries that actually went up on the board.

Alphr's model had Broncos at 56% to win with a predicted margin of 2.9, and the final gap of 14 points ran well past that lean but still landed on the right side of the ledger. The under on 51.5 combined points also came in, with the game finishing on 38. Four tries to two on the night, and the model went 2 from 4 on the finer detail. Not a bad job, reading a game that spent most of its second half hanging by six points.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 10 | 16 | 26 |
| Dolphins | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,839 | Run metres | **2,137** |
| 548 | Post-contact metres | **720** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 46 | Tackle breaks | **53** |
| 5 | Offloads | **25** |
| 79.9% | Effective tackle % | **87.0%** |
| 53 | Missed tackles | **46** |
| **10** | Errors | 15 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **801** | Kick metres | 462 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 56% probability. The predicted margin of 2.9 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Broncos led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Broncos have a 57% win rate under this referee. Broncos's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 43' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +15 pts
- 58' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 72' Try — Gehamat Shibasaki (Broncos) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 79' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 26-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.64 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 56.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 3 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Broncos are the call at 56%, but Dolphins stay live at 44%. Form leans Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Broncos.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Broncos by 2.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 40-32 in 2026 Round 23.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 3, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Broncos 13th against Dolphins 6th.

The market has Broncos favourites, Broncos $1.64 and Dolphins $2.26, with the line at Broncos -3.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Broncos 6 · Dolphins 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 40-32 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 13th · Dolphins 6th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Broncos $1.64 · Dolphins $2.26 |
| Line | Broncos -3.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 29W–22L | 57% |
| Dolphins | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 51 games (57%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 3 from 8 (38%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Broncos get a +-0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Dolphins's -1.5.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 36.8pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| -5.4pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1671.6m | Run Metres | 1814.4m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 7.0 |
| 357.8 | Tackles | 344.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | FW1 W · PF W · R1 L · R2 L · R3 W | 19.0 |
| Dolphins | R26 W · R27 W · R1 L · R2 W · R3 W | 36.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Dolphins | 40 – 32 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R24 | Broncos | 38 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R4 | Dolphins | 12 – 20 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R26 | Dolphins | 40 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R6 | Broncos | 28 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 11th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Staggs, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 17th there (2.33 conceded/game). Key man: Lemuelu, 1 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 2/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.67/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 2 | 0 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 128m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.3/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 11 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 638m/g | 855m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.3/g | 14/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.3% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 3 · 0 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 565m/g | 554m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.3/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 92.7% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.09) +33% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.09) +67% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 2 in 3g | 9/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 22/38g | 60% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 0 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/17g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 3 in 3g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 4/6g | 45/82g | 48% | — | 🏉 4' 80' |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 0 in 3g | 7/10g (1·2·0·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 10/29g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/11g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 19/38g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/61g | 12% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/54g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 5/44g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Willison | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/32g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/27g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 13/69g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/69g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 26/115g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/6g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Gehamat Shibasaki | INT | 0 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 11/22g | 38% | — | 🏉 73' |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 3 in 3g | 10/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·3·1·1·1) | 5/9g | 27/31g | 64% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 2 in 3g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 32/76g | 40% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 4 in 3g | 9/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·2) | 6/7g | 14/27g | 48% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 3g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 25/63g | 46% | — | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 28/50g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 23/83g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/13g | 21% | — | — |
| 10 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 2/39g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 7/29g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Flegler | INT | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/57g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Oryn Keeley | RES | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/28g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1543 · Dolphins 1542 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1043 | 1047 | Dolphins +4 |
| Backs | 1059 | 1079 | Dolphins +20 |
| Halves | 1032 | 1014 | Broncos +19 |
| Hooker | 1042 | 1041 | Broncos +1 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Broncos predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r4-broncos-v-dolphins
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-27 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)