Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
56%
Dolphins
44%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model predicts Broncos by 2.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.64
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.8%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWLL | 21.4 |
Dolphins | WWWLL | 35.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.4
Broncos
33.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-3.0
Broncos
2.0
Dolphins
Run Metres
1620
Broncos
1752
Dolphins
Line Breaks
3.0
Broncos
9.0
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 28 of 48 games (58%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 6 (33%). That's a 25‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Broncos predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +2.9
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