NRL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
BRI
Broncos
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • FRIDAY 20 MAR, 8:00 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

62%StormFavourite

Storm

62%

Broncos

38%

✨

AI Match Overview

Storm hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1658 vs 1511). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 9.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.39

Lost ✗

Edge

-6.4%

✗

Line / Spread

Storm -8.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Storm 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 54.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWLL
24.8
Broncos
WWWWL
22.6

Avg Conceded

21.2

Storm

22.4

Broncos

Avg Margin

3.6

Storm

0.2

Broncos

Run Metres

1680

Storm

1662

Broncos

Line Breaks

5.8

Storm

4.6

Broncos

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Todd Smith99 games since 2019

Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
75%9W 3L
BRI
54%7W 6L

When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 9 of 12 games (75%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Broncos's 7 from 13 (54%). That's a 21‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 46.1 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

46.1 pts

Home Win %

56%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 3-2
Oct 2025MEL 20 - 26 BRI
Sep 2025MEL 14 - 30 BRI
Aug 2025MEL 22 - 2 BRI
Sep 2024MEL 50 - 12 BRI
Apr 2024MEL 34 - 32 BRI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1658Overall1511
BRI
ELO difference: +148 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1161Forwards1033
MEL +127
1184Backs974
MEL +210
1190Halves971
MEL +219
1119Hooker992
MEL +127

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
BRI
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
22.6pts
21.2pts
Avg Conceded
22.4pts
3.6pts
Avg Margin
0.2pts
1679.8m
Run Metres
1662.4m
5.8
Line Breaks
4.6
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Broncos
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

62%

Storm predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.9

1/4 match predictions correct
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