Win Probability
AI Game Review
Broncos defied the model's 62% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 4 points. Broncos trailed 14–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–18. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 54.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 14 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Broncos bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
62%
Broncos
38%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Broncos are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Storm ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 148-point ELO rating advantage (1658 vs 1511). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Storm by 9.9 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.39
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.4%
Line / Spread
Storm -8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | R2025-R27L R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1W R2026-R2W older → newer | 32.0 |
Broncos | R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1L R2026-R2L | 21.4 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Storm
24.4
Broncos
Avg Margin
14.8
Storm
-3.0
Broncos
Run Metres
1792
Storm
1619
Broncos
Line Breaks
7.0
Storm
3.2
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours StormTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Storm hold a 9-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Broncos's 9W–6L (60%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Storm predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +9.9
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