# Storm v Broncos — NRL Round 3 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 14 – 18 Broncos

_Broncos surge back to stampede past Storm from 14 down._

Half time: 14 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 62% / Broncos 38% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 20 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Sualauvi Faalogo (22' 1st), Joe Chan (40') · Broncos: Jordan Riki (42'), Jordan Riki (51'), Kotoni Staggs (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 62% | Lost |
| Broncos | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 3 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Mar 2026, 03:28 pm · Last updated: 20 Mar 2026, 10:00 pm_

Storm 14–18 Broncos in NRL Round 3 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm did most things right at AAMI Park. They completed at 84% to the Broncos' 72%, ran for 1,975 metres against 1,674, and cut the line five times to three. They led the tackle break count too, 39 to 37, and offloaded ten times to the Broncos' four. By the sheet, this was theirs to win.

It wasn't. Broncos left with an 18-14 win, and the story of how says more than any of those completion numbers.

Storm led 14-0 at the break, tries to Sualauvi Faalogo in the 21st minute and Joe Chan right on the stroke of half-time doing the damage. Faalogo opened the scoring, Chan doubled it, and at that point the ratings gap looked about right. Storm went in favourites at 62%, the model had them winning by 9.9, and a two-score lead at the break with that kind of forward and backline edge (1161 to 1033 up front, 1184 to 974 in the backs) suggested the margin might blow out, not close up.

Instead the Broncos flipped it. Jordan Riki scored a minute after the break to make it 14-4, then again in the 51st to bring it to 14-10, and Kotoni Staggs finished the job in the 58th for 14-16. From there Storm never got the ball back down the other end when it mattered. Three tries in 17 minutes, all against a Storm side that had done the harder yards for most of the contest.

That's the part the stat sheet doesn't explain. Storm's completion rate and metres advantage were real, but repeat sets don't mean much if you can't finish the back end of them. Their missed tackle count, 37 to the Broncos' 39, was marginally better, and their effective tackle percentage at 89.6% against 86.4% suggests the defence held up in the aggregate. It just didn't hold up in the only stretch that decided the scoreboard.

The Broncos came in off the back of a rough patch, three wins from five but two losses on the trot, and an average margin of minus-3 across that run. Nothing about their form line said second-half takeover. But sometimes the shape of a result is written in twenty minutes, not eighty, and this was one of those games.

Penalties went the Broncos' way marginally, five conceded to Storm's six, and their kicking metres (602 to 535) at least kept field position honest even while Storm dominated the ball more broadly. Errors were close, 11 to 10, which tells you this wasn't won on ill discipline or handling blunders. It was won on execution when the game was live, in the only third of the match that mattered for the result.

Alphr's model had Storm well clear pre-match and got the total right, under the 54.5 line, but missed the margin by a distance, tipping 9.9 in Storm's favour against an actual gap of four points the other way. One from four on this one. Storm did most of the hard work. The Broncos did the only work that counted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Broncos | 0 | 18 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 72% |
| **1,975** | Run metres | 1,674 |
| **631** | Post-contact metres | 605 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 37 |
| **10** | Offloads | 4 |
| **89.6%** | Effective tackle % | 86.4% |
| **37** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| 535 | Kick metres | **602** |

**Model Report Card**

Broncos defied the model's 62% prediction for Storm, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 4 points. Broncos trailed 14–0 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–18. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 15 points below Todd Smith's career average of 47. Broncos bucked the trend, Storm historically win 73% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 21' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 40' Try — Joe Chan (Storm) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +12 pts
- 41' Try — Jordan Riki (Broncos) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 51' Try — Jordan Riki (Broncos) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 58' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.39 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 62%, but Broncos stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 148 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1511. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Broncos.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 46-20 in 2026 Round 26.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 1st against Broncos 15th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.39 and Broncos $3.01, with the line at Storm -8.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 1st · Broncos 15th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Storm $1.39 · Broncos $3.01 |
| Line | Storm -8.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11W–4L | 73% |
| Broncos | 10W–7L | 59% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Storm hold a 14-point edge: 11W–4L (73%) vs Broncos's 10W–7L (59%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 32.0pts | Avg Score | 21.4pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 1791.6m | Run Metres | 1619.4m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 319.4 | Tackles | 356.4 |
| 9.4 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R27 L · FW1 W · PF W · R1 W · R2 W | 32.0 |
| Broncos | R27 W · FW1 W · PF W · R1 L · R2 L | 21.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Broncos | 20 – 46 | Storm |
| 2025 | GF | Storm | 22 – 26 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R27 | Broncos | 30 – 14 | Storm |
| 2025 | R23 | Storm | 22 – 2 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R27 | Broncos | 12 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 7th there (1.37 conceded/game). Key man: Hughes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 6th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Shibasaki, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.37/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 2.04/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.81/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.19/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 17 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 118m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 86.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 66 | 85 · 63 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 701m/g | 720m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 21.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 6 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 584m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 11.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.71) +8%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 5 in 2g | 9/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·2·3) | 2/2g | 6/10g | 43% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 2 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 8/6g | 15/26g | 58% | — | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 2 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/4g | 5/19g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | Moses Leo | CE | 2 in 2g | 2/4g (0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Nick Meaney | WG | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/13g | 19/45g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/21g | 34/102g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 13/14g | 31/69g | 36% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 3/9g | 19/48g | 38% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 7/47g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 1 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 2/16g | 11% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 13 | Tui Kamikamica | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 5/53g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 11/42g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Trent Loiero | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/47g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | RES | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 2 in 2g | 9/10g (0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·2) | 4/8g | 0/4g | 62% | — | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 35% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 2 in 2g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/12g | 0/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | CE | 0 in 2g | 7/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 44% | — | — |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | WG | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/25g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/4g | 38% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 42' 51' |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | HB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/23g | 2/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| 16 | Aublix Tawha | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Gehamat Shibasaki | RES | 0 in 2g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1658 · Broncos 1511 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1161 | 1033 | Storm +127 |
| Backs | 1184 | 974 | Storm +210 |
| Halves | 1190 | 971 | Storm +219 |
| Hooker | 1119 | 992 | Storm +127 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Storm predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r3-storm-v-broncos
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-03-20 11:00 UTC (latest tip update)